The insights: Generation X leads in consumer spending, and tech industry marketers may be missing out on a key opportunity, especially this holiday season. Gen Xers worldwide will spend $15.2 trillion in 2025—more than any other generation—per NielsenIQ’s The X Factor report. 25% of UK Gen Xers plan to spend more than £500 ($639) on Christmas gifts this year, per Azerion, while only 1% of Gen Zers say they will spend that much. Our take: This is marketers’ cue to lean into smarter personalization, digital experiences, and loyalty programs that appeal to Gen X’s tech-savvy, open-minded style, and their outsized influence on household spending. Dedicated strategies to target Gen X now will drive growth while spending power is at its peak.
The news: The connected TV (CTV) market is in flux as retail giants Amazon and Walmart escalate their fight for dominance—staking claims not just on content or devices, but on the operating systems themselves. Our take: Amazon and Walmart are racing to close the gap between attention and action. Controlling TV hardware and CTV operating systems while linking them to first-party retail data helps build seamless, closed-loop ad ecosystems where viewers can become buyers in a click. To stay competitive, marketers must optimize for closed-loop attribution, prioritize retail media integrations, and treat smart TVs as both screen and storefront as retail media and CTV ad spending surge.
In this podcast episode, we discuss the importance of physical touchpoints for brands and explore what attracts younger generations to in-store shopping experiences. We also examine the expectations consumers have for engaging in person experiences. Join our conversation with Senior Director of Podcasts and host, Marcus Johnson, Chief Client Strategy & Integration; President of Quad Agency Services, Tim Maleeny, and Vice President of Content, Suzy Davidkhanian. Listen everywhere you find podcasts and watch on YouTube and Spotify.
The split screen: There’s a growing divide between affluent consumers and everyone else. Our take: It’s tempting to look at top-line numbers—like June retail sales—and assume the economy is holding steady. But much of the resilience is concentrated at the top. Moody’s estimates the wealthiest 10% of households—those earning $250,000 or more—now account for half of all US consumer spending, up from about one-third in the early 1990s. That dynamic helps explain why luxury brands like Burberry and RH continue to post gains, while value-focused chains like McDonald’s are seeing signs of softening demand. As inequality widens and economic anxiety builds, especially amid persistent inflation and trade uncertainty, the US economy looks increasingly bifurcated.
The insight: Amazon’s decision to double the length of its Prime Day sale delivered significant rewards for its advertising business—as we said it would. The takeaway: The first four-day Prime Day was an important learning experience for brands. With the event unlikely to get any shorter, sellers will need to be more precise about their ad strategy—focusing spending on times of day when shoppers are more likely to buy, or saving the bulk of their budgets for end-of-sale urgency.
The news: Bank of America notched a record second quarter for revenues, per Bloomberg. Revenues totaled $26.61 billion, lower than analysts’ anticipated $26.72 billion. Our take: Bank of America’s tight underwriting standards—its average credit cardholder FICO score is 777—have created a strong stable of superprime cardholders to drive volume through tempting rewards offerings.
The news: Cash App rolled out an extra layer of protection for minors’ P2P payments, with automatic flagging for sponsors (parents or guardians) to approve risky requests. Our take: Attracting young users at the beginning of their financial lives can yield long-term loyalty to the app.
The news: US retail sales rose 0.6% MoM in June, per the Commerce Department, well ahead of the projected 0.1% increase. On a YoY basis, sales were up a healthy 3.9%, a sign of consumers’ resilience in the face of considerable uncertainty. Our take: June’s upbeat sales report underscores the volatility of the current retail landscape. While consumers may currently feel secure enough to manage rising prices, that could quickly change as tariff-related cost increases begin to hit more directly.
The news: Mastercard launched the World Legend Mastercard, a premium card for higher-spending customers, alongside an overhaul of rewards and perks across the entire Mastercard Collection. Our take: We anticipate that card networks will jockey for the most premium cards as issuers cater to wealthy consumers’ reward wish lists.
The news: Circle K owner Alimentation Couche-Tard has dropped its bid to buy Japan’s Seven & i Holdings, casting doubt on whether the 7-Eleven operator’s planned US IPO will proceed, Bloomberg reported. Our take: As 7-Eleven continues efforts to strengthen its core business, the failed takeover bid offers lessons for retailers and brands. Decisions involving globally recognized brands should be strategic, not reactive. Retailers must maintain flexibility to revisit IPO or spin-off plans as business circumstances change.
Only 28% of US luxury consumers felt optimistic about the economy in April 2025, down from 41% in January 2025 and 45% in April 2024, according to data from Saks.
The report: OpenAI is reportedly developing a checkout feature that would allow users to complete purchases directly within ChatGPT, according to The Financial Times. Merchants would pay OpenAI a commission on any resulting sales. Our take: At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, checkout integration could fundamentally transform the ecommerce landscape. Even before news of the feature began circulating, brands were exploring AI optimization, or “AIO”, to rank in AI-generated product recommendations. Now, with purchases just a click away, ChatGPT could emerge as a viable commerce engine—especially if it undercuts incumbent marketplaces’ take rates. And it likely won’t be alone for long. Rivals like Perplexity and Anthropic are almost certain to build similar transactional layers, creating a new crop of marketplace-like platforms for sellers in short order.
The news: Cash App Business sellers now have access to Tap to Pay on iPhone through the Cash App iOS app, per a press release. Our take: Block has been pushing into contactless payments for both Cash App and Square Handheld. Cash App microbusinesses now have the room to grow through Block’s offerings as their business matures.
The news: Walmart introduced a private label for tweens, Weekend Academy, just in time for the back-to-school shopping season. Our take: As Target proved, retailers that use their private labels to deliver on-trend products at affordable prices can win big with shoppers. While Walmart hasn’t always been known as a destination for stylish products, its growing investments in its store brands could help it capitalize on Target’s fading “Tarzhay” magic and become a go-to for value- and design-conscious shoppers.
On today's podcast episode, we discuss the state of some of our 2025 predictions, including GenAI’s influence on business growth, the influence of China’s e-commerce disruptors, the squeeze on retail media networks, and more. Then, we offer a few more slightly spicier predictions for the remainder of the year ahead. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Vice President Suzy Davidkhanian and Senior Analyst Carina Perkins.
Ecommerce share varies greatly across categories. The average ecommerce penetration across US retail sales of 16.7% masks wide disparities: Rates range from as high as 70.1% for books, music, & video to just 5.9% for auto & parts.
The trend: US consumers are pulling back on summer vacations. The average trip budget has dropped 25.4% YoY to $3,132, per an Ipsos survey for Generali Global Assistance. Our take: The pullback in travel spending is a canary in the coal mine. As economic anxiety deepens, more consumers will likely pull back further, scrutinize discretionary purchases, and double down on value. Retailers, brands, and travel companies should brace for a more cautious consumer in the second half of the year. To stay competitive, they should look for opportunities to: Sharpen their value messaging to align with price-sensitive mindsets; Stay closely attuned to shifting consumer sentiment through ongoing survey and trend analysis; Position themselves as allies in financial wellness, offering not just products, but practical ways to help consumers stretch their dollars further.
The news: Shopify will not allow agents and other bots to purchase on users’ behalf without “final human review,” the company said in an update to the code used by merchants to operate their online storefronts. Our take: While AI agents aren’t yet reliable enough to be given free reign over purchase decisions, companies have to be prepared for a future where they soon will be.
The news: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup posted strong Q2 2025 earnings—and warnings about Trump’s mercurial economic policies. Our take: While revenues, credit card volumes and delinquency rates reflect positively about the health of the American consumer, their lived experience remains fraught.