The news: American Express is the payment partner of Hard Rock Stadium, the Formula 1 Crypto.com Grand Prix, and the Miami Dolphins, replete with new perks for for South Florida cardholders and fans. Our take: Amex is leading the premium rewards arms race against competitors like Chase and Capital One by snagging high-profile, high-prestige events like the US Open and Formula 1. Aligning itself with the experiential desires of the wealthy helps Amex deliver unbeatable rewards that turn exclusive experiences into cardholder loyalty. .
The situation: The so-called de minimis trade loophole, which lets foreign packages under $800 enter the US tariff-free, closes Friday, August 29. The White House already ended the exemption for shipments from China and Hong Kong on May 2. Companies have had little time to prepare since President Donald Trump signed the executive order in late July. Many are now scrambling to adjust. Our take: With no end to tariff-related instability in sight, companies must find ways to adapt to an uncertain trade landscape. It’s become a business imperative.
The news: Zip’s total transaction volume (TTV) spiked 30.3% YoY in fiscal 2025 (ended June 30, 2025), driven by momentum in its US business. Cash before taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBTDA) more than doubled YoY to AUD 170.3 million ($109.38 million), a 147% increase. Total transaction value hit AUD 13.1 billion ($8.42 billion). Transaction volume was up 22.1% YoY to 93 million. Net bad debts decreased YoY to 1.5% of TTV, down from 1.7% in FY24. Our take: Zip’s year-end results reflect the spending strength of US consumers. We forecast US total retail sales to hit $7.513.38 trillion for 2025. By comparison, Zip’s native Australia is only anticipated to crack $356.49 billion in total retail sales this year.
The situation: A significant share of consumers are putting eating out on the chopping block as tariffs carve into their budgets. 43% could cut back on full-service restaurants, while 42% are rethinking fast-casual, per a CivicScience consumer survey. Chains seen as pricey—or lacking a clear bang-for-the-buck—are especially vulnerable, as shown by sluggish results at “slop bowl” brands like Cava and Sweetgreen. To stay off the block themselves, restaurants from McDonald’s to Applebee’s are leaning hard into value plays. Our take: Consumers haven’t lost their appetite for dining out, but with budgets under pressure, they want to be sure they’re getting their money’s worth. Restaurants that serve up value will thrive; those that don’t could get carved up as tariffs pinch wallets.
Earlier this month, for the second time in seven years, Claire’s filed for bankruptcy. The retailer will avoid complete collapse by selling most of its North American business to private equity firm Ames Watson, but its ongoing struggles serve as a cautionary tale. Marketing tactics alone cannot keep a brand afloat without a cohesive strategy—one that unites product, customer experience, and cultural relevance.
The insight: Retail buyers are leaning on AI and earlier ordering to prepare for a highly uncertain holiday season, according to a new survey by Deloitte. Our take: Suppliers have done what they can to ensure shelves are stocked this holiday season. But that may not be enough to tempt wary shoppers: We expect holiday sales growth to decelerate sharply to 1.2% this year as tariffs test buying behaviors and weigh on confidence.
The news: FundCanna launched B2B buy now, pay later (BNPL) platform ReadyPaid to address the cannabis industry’s endemic cash-flow problem. Our take: Alternative financing pairing well with an alternative industry comes as no shock. If cannabis is finally descheduled by the federal government—or at least reclassified, as President Donald Trump has considered—ReadyPaid will have a harder time competing against traditional banks that likely will openly service weed-related business without regulatory threats.
The news: The State of Wyoming debuted its Frontier Stable Token (FRNT) across seven blockchains in partnership with LayerZero. Our take: While stablecoins were originally framed as a faster and cheaper alternative to traditional payment methods, the crowding field of available tokens—coupled with their limited acceptance networks—appears to create more transaction disruption than streamlining.
Blue Yonder has acquired Optoro to expand its footprint in returns management, covering everything from in-store and warehouse processes to recommerce and resale. Returns are projected to hit $685.9 billion in 2024, nearly 13% of US retail sales, with fraud and behaviors like bracketing and wardrobing compounding losses. Optoro brings warehouse-focused workflows, while Blue Yonder has built consumer-facing tools through prior acquisitions like Doddle. Together, they now cover the entire returns cycle. By reframing returns as recoverable assets, Blue Yonder aims to help retailers cut waste, boost profitability, and position itself as a leader in returns technology.
The news: Bilt has stealthily been behind the vertical short-form social series Roomies, in a long-term game to broaden its brand recognition across Gen Z and millennial renters. The series has 66,000 and 80,600 followers on TikTok and Instagram. On TikTok, Roomies has passed 906,000 likes across 10 episodes. Our take: With 89.7% of Gen Z spending time on social media platforms, per our forecast, Bilt’s ability to capture the generation’s attention without drawing the “ick” could pay dividends in driving signs up to its upcoming card refresh.
The news: Walmart boosted its full-year earnings and sales outlook, even as tariffs weigh on its costs. Our first take: Walmart continues to prove its resilience in a shaky macro environment by leaning on its three biggest levers: value, convenience, and groceries.
The news: Macy’s Media Network, the department store’s retail media arm, will test a partnership with Amazon Retail Ad Service—the ecommerce giant’s ad tech product for other retailers. The pilot will launch in early Q4, just ahead of the holiday season. Our take: Macy’s is the first major retailer to test Amazon’s ad product since its January debut, making this a high-profile proving ground. The pilot will show whether Amazon can drive incremental ad spend for retailers, and crucially, whether other chains are comfortable sharing data with a direct competitor. The results will have ripple effects across the ad tech ecosystem. If the partnership proves effective, Amazon Retail Ad Service could emerge as a meaningful threat to intermediaries like Criteo and Publicis, which have built strong businesses helping brands navigate retail media. It would also open another lucrative revenue stream for Amazon’s already fast-growing ad arm, strengthening its position at the center of digital commerce.
Fiddelke inherits a tough hand. Target’s recent missteps—from scaling back DEI initiatives to pulling back Pride Month offerings—have weakened its brand and left it vulnerable to rivals like Walmart, which continues to win over shoppers with lower prices and broader grocery selection.
Ten years after its establishment, Amazon Business is expanding its seller network and product selection to serve an 8 million global organization customer base, which has grown 33% from 6 million in 2023. Many of the capabilities that individual shoppers enjoy on Amazon’s B2C platform—broad selection, cost savings, and advanced technology—are being applied to its B2B marketplace to help organizations work smarter and more efficiently. As Amazon Business continues to innovate, it is poised to compete for more sales from companies seeking to save time and resources.
The news: Lowe’s is acquiring Foundation Building Materials (FBM) for approximately $8.8 billion. The North American distributor of interior building products generated roughly $6.5 billion in revenues in 2024 on a pro forma basis and operates more than 370 locations across the US and Canada, serving 40,000 Pro customers. Its business spans both new construction and repair/remodel applications. Our take: Lowe’s is playing the long game. By doubling down on Pro customers, the retailer is building a buffer against consumer caution and the frozen housing market. FBM’s scale positions Lowe’s to capture long-term share as construction rebounds, and the raised sales guidance signals confidence that its Pro-focused playbook is already delivering results. That stands in contrast to Home Depot, which recently fell short of both revenue and earnings expectations for the first time in a decade. While Home Depot has leaned into its Pro business as well, tariffs, elevated housing costs, and labor pressures are weighing on its results. Lowe’s acquisitions and investments could give it an edge in weathering near-term headwinds and winning share from contractors and builders who will be critical growth drivers over the next decade.
Estée Lauder posted a wider quarterly loss as sales slumped and warned that tariffs could reduce earnings by about $100 million over the next year. Estée Lauder is taking necessary steps to turn around its business—focusing on product innovation, cutting costs, and broadening its customer reach—but it will be tough given intense competition in the beauty market. With key rival L’Oreal gaining US momentum and newer brands emerging, Estée Lauder must accelerate product innovation, reduce reliance on discounting, rebuild momentum in China, and take other steps to win new customers, or risk ceding more ground in the longer term.
The situation: TJX is thriving as shoppers flock to its off-price value proposition. Our take: Off-price retailers like TJX’s T.J. Maxx and Marshalls are poised to thrive this holiday season, when consumers are likely to be both budget-minded and eager for discovery. TJX’s model allows it to avoid much of the tariff pain weighing on full-price retailers, since it sources excess merchandise at steep discounts. At the same time, retailers frontloading inventory in anticipation of tariff impacts may unintentionally flood the off-price channel with fresh product. That could create a double advantage heading into Q4: sharper values for shoppers, and a “treasure hunt” experience that can pull traffic away from department stores and specialty chains at a time when promotional intensity will be fierce.
The news: American Express bolstered its array of hotels and resorts for Platinum members ahead of its much-anticipated Platinum refresh. The credit card company also debuted exclusive Amex experiences at the US Open Tennis Championship this week. Our take: Expanding its resort collection can help Amex cement its dominance in the premium travel card space. Its lineup at the US Open signals the power of experiential rewards, which craft a unique, memorable experience for members that extends beyond cash or material incentives—a clever way to distinguish itself from rivals like the Chase Sapphire Reserve.
The news: Mastercard has awarded WPP Media its $180 million media account after ending its relationship with Dentsu-owned Carat. Our take: WPP Media’s previous with PayPal may give insight into the type of media it might produce for Mastercard. As the creative firm behind the “Venmo Everything” campaign and the Will Ferrell-fronted PayPal Pay Later campaign, Mastercard’s new promos likely will feature zeitgeisty and generationally buzzy celebrities to target younger demographics.
As card demand contracts and consumers pay down debt, banks may be sidelining spend-ready customers before stagflation takes hold.