Google and commerce media company Criteo announced an onsite retail media integration on Tuesday, marking the first of its kind for Google and opening opportunities for brands across digital commerce. Criteo and Google’s integration provides clear direction for advertisers struggling to capitalize on retail media’s potential, offering a seamless ecosystem that will connect brands with customers likely to take action.
Holiday sales forecasts for 2025 show wide disparities, with Deloitte projecting slower growth at 2.9%–3.4%, Bain at 4%, and PwC warning of a 5% drop in average spending. Ecommerce is expected to grow, but at a more modest pace than recent years. A cooling labor market, persistent inflation, and weak consumer sentiment weigh heavily on outlooks, especially for lower- and middle-income households, whose spending power lags behind wealthier groups benefiting from wage growth and asset gains. Our view aligns with PwC’s caution, stressing that retailers should prioritize value-driven promotions, loyalty incentives, and strategic October campaigns to navigate an uneven season.
RaceTrac will acquire sandwich chain Potbelly in a $566 million cash deal expected to close in Q4, with both brands continuing to operate separately. The acquisition boosts RaceTrac’s foodservice offerings at a time when convenience-store meals are driving growth, accounting for nearly 28% of in-store sales in 2024. For Potbelly, going private could accelerate its ambitious plan to expand to 2,000 shops while avoiding public market pressures. The move is a strategic play in the convenience-store foodservice arms race, positioning RaceTrac against competitors like 7-Eleven and Wawa in the battle for meal-focused customers.
Weak consumer sentiment in Europe is hurting fast fashion sales, with both Primark and Zara owner Inditex reporting slowdowns. The challenging environment in Europe increasingly favors Shein and Temu, whose ability to undercut competitors on price and deliver a steady stream of trendy products positions them to take more fast fashion share. But as in the US, both companies could fall afoul of geopolitical tensions as European governments raise concerns about Chinese overcapacity—and President Trump pushes the EU to implement 100% tariffs on China imports.
Higher-income shoppers are driving higher return rates in 2025, with a 5.3% rate compared to 3.7% for lower-income consumers, according to Bank of America data. Analysts suggest this stems from wealthier buyers’ heavier discretionary spending, speculative purchases, and even wardrobing to test styles. Fraud is also a factor, with one in four higher-income shoppers engaging in first-party fraud during the holidays versus just 11% of lower-income peers. While retailers often look to affluent consumers for growth, their elevated returns create added costs, pushing companies toward AR try-on tools and stronger fraud detection instead of stricter policies.
Consumers exhibit across-the-board confusion about their eligibility for different credit products, per a report from i2c and PYMNTS. BNPL providers are losing their messaging campaigns if consumers think credit cards are more attainable than a pay-in-four plan. As issuers maintain tight underwriting, BNPL providers can also swoop up consumers who need credit but don’t qualify for new lines of traditional credit. If BNPL platforms can advertise their accessibility for the average consumer, they can capture spend from incumbents.
Nuvei partnered with Early Warning Services so merchants can integrate Paze into their checkout experiences.Wallets like Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and PayPal should be on notice as Paze becomes a more capable competitor. Paze may finally be able to take a bigger bite out of PayPal and Apple Pay’s market share as its merchant adoption rises. The rise of Paze won’t come easily: Over 60% of US adults already use at least one mobile wallet, per our forecast.
Retailers are rolling out Halloween merchandise earlier than ever, hoping to entice cautious shoppers with unique seasonal products. Target is offering over 1,500 new items, including limited-edition Stanley cups, while Home Depot and Lowe’s push oversized animatronics and quirky skeletons. Build-A-Bear is already seeing strong sales from themed plushies, and Spirit Halloween is betting on immersive store experiences. Despite economic uncertainty, 75% of US adults plan to shop for holiday-themed goods, and retailers that imported early may benefit from avoiding looming tariffs that could sharply raise costume and mask prices.
Amazon is investing $25 million in Colombian delivery app Rappi through a convertible note that could give it up to a 12% stake, signaling a push to strengthen its last-mile delivery capabilities across Latin America. With Rappi’s 35 million users, rapid “Turbo” delivery service, and superapp ecosystem, Amazon hopes to challenge Mercado Libre. While the partnership could expand Amazon’s reach from Mexico to Chile, it faces stiff competition: Mercado Libre is investing $13.2 billion this year alone, fueling a projected 22.7% sales jump and expanding its commanding market share.
Walmart-linked fintech OnePay will roll out $35 wireless plans through its app on September 10. Walmart’s OnePay wireless initiative would have a better chance for significant customer adoption if the retailer didn’t already offer several phone plans: Walmart Family Mobile and Straight Talk. The challenge for the retailer moving forward will be to funnel consumers to its OnePay plans who may be existing customers on Family Mobile or Straight Talk plans, which could generate confusion. While building out this program can help to achieve the “everything app” ambitions of many fintechs, competing with standard carriers remains a tough sell: Almost 90% of US adults will keep their mobile plans with Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, per our forecast.
Magnum Ice Cream is optimistic about boosting growth and profitability following its planned split from Unilever, projecting 3%–5% organic sales growth from 2026 and steady margin expansion. With a 21% share of the global ice cream market and a €500 million cost-savings initiative, the company is well-positioned to leverage shifting consumer preferences. Magnum plans to appeal to GLP-1 users by marketing its products as calorie-efficient, higher-protein snacks while also reducing sugar and additives. By narrowing its focus, Magnum joins other CPG players in streamlining operations to stay competitive against rising private-label alternatives.
Target's appointment of internal veteran Michael Fiddelke as its next CEO has sparked debate among investors and analysts about whether an insider can turn around the struggling retailer after nearly three years of disappointing performance.
Retail media networks rely on driving conversions—and Walmart is no exception. Its search results are saturated with ads, with 97% of queries serving at least one sponsored product, per Pentaleap data. But Walmart is also growing its upper-funnel capabilities, using its stores to do it despite physical retail’s traditional role as a bottom-of-the-funnel channel.
Nike and Under Armour are leaning on the star power of LeBron James and Steph Curry to restore flagging sales in China and stay culturally relevant. Their ongoing struggles in the region show that brands can no longer expect to coast on their reputations to win over global customers—especially now, as US trade policies sour relations with even its closest allies.
Temu’s US business is slowly recovering, despite tariff pressures and the end of de minimis. The ending of de minimis for all sellers—not just those based in China—coupled with higher tariff costs for virtually all retailers has enabled Temu to maintain its value proposition and appeal to bargain-hunting shoppers. That also applies to Shein, which is seeing shopping frequency, app downloads, site visits, and search interest above 2024 levels. The company’s recoveries show how important price is to US consumers—and how receptive they are to the stream of flash sales, discounts, and gamified rewards that Shein and Temu offer.
Peacock is striking partnerships to grow its audience: The streamer is now available via Walmart+, adding millions of potential viewers ahead of a crucial year.
New data shows Trump’s tariff-driven trade policies are disrupting global shipments and straining US manufacturers just as the holiday season approaches. Global postal traffic to the US plunged 81% after closure of the “de minimis” loophole, while China’s exports to the US fell 33% year over year. Despite promises of revitalizing US manufacturing, factory activity has contracted for six consecutive months and employment has slipped. With holiday sales growth now forecast at just 1.2% instead of 3.9%, retailers face weaker demand, higher costs, and limited product selection, signaling prolonged pressure on consumers and the broader economy.
Sam’s Club is targeting a major ecommerce expansion, aiming to grow digital sales from 18% to at least 40% of total revenues by leveraging Walmart’s supply chain and new digital tools. Recent updates include a redesigned website and app with flexible fulfillment options, larger media-rich product pages, and expanded club-fulfilled delivery. The retailer is testing larger fulfillment spaces and adding online experiences like pizza delivery to drive engagement. With 40% of members using Scan & Go, Sam’s Club is streamlining in-store trips while building a stronger digital ecosystem, boosting ad opportunities and positioning itself against Costco and other rivals.
Lululemon athetica warned the end of the de minimis exemption will be more damaging to its bottom line than tariffs alone. De minimis’ abrupt end is pressuring retailers’ supply chains and their operating models. In addition to tariff-proofing their manufacturing strategies, companies that relied on duty-free shipments to the US must now also invest in local fulfillment and face the full weight of tariff costs. While companies are looking to offset some of those expenses by reducing operating costs, most of the burden will ultimately be passed onto consumers—which could curb demand heading into the all-important holiday season.
PayPal will work with Nova Credit to broaden its underwriting process across its portfolio of consumer credit products, per a press release. PayPal’s current steps only broaden underwriting for US consumers. However, using Nova Credit internationally could open up even more lending opportunities in areas like Latin America and India, where there’s less access to traditional credit products.