Blue Yonder has acquired Optoro to expand its footprint in returns management, covering everything from in-store and warehouse processes to recommerce and resale. Returns are projected to hit $685.9 billion in 2024, nearly 13% of US retail sales, with fraud and behaviors like bracketing and wardrobing compounding losses. Optoro brings warehouse-focused workflows, while Blue Yonder has built consumer-facing tools through prior acquisitions like Doddle. Together, they now cover the entire returns cycle. By reframing returns as recoverable assets, Blue Yonder aims to help retailers cut waste, boost profitability, and position itself as a leader in returns technology.
The news: Bilt has stealthily been behind the vertical short-form social series Roomies, in a long-term game to broaden its brand recognition across Gen Z and millennial renters. The series has 66,000 and 80,600 followers on TikTok and Instagram. On TikTok, Roomies has passed 906,000 likes across 10 episodes. Our take: With 89.7% of Gen Z spending time on social media platforms, per our forecast, Bilt’s ability to capture the generation’s attention without drawing the “ick” could pay dividends in driving signs up to its upcoming card refresh.
The news: Walmart boosted its full-year earnings and sales outlook, even as tariffs weigh on its costs. Our first take: Walmart continues to prove its resilience in a shaky macro environment by leaning on its three biggest levers: value, convenience, and groceries.
The news: Macy’s Media Network, the department store’s retail media arm, will test a partnership with Amazon Retail Ad Service—the ecommerce giant’s ad tech product for other retailers. The pilot will launch in early Q4, just ahead of the holiday season. Our take: Macy’s is the first major retailer to test Amazon’s ad product since its January debut, making this a high-profile proving ground. The pilot will show whether Amazon can drive incremental ad spend for retailers, and crucially, whether other chains are comfortable sharing data with a direct competitor. The results will have ripple effects across the ad tech ecosystem. If the partnership proves effective, Amazon Retail Ad Service could emerge as a meaningful threat to intermediaries like Criteo and Publicis, which have built strong businesses helping brands navigate retail media. It would also open another lucrative revenue stream for Amazon’s already fast-growing ad arm, strengthening its position at the center of digital commerce.
Fiddelke inherits a tough hand. Target’s recent missteps—from scaling back DEI initiatives to pulling back Pride Month offerings—have weakened its brand and left it vulnerable to rivals like Walmart, which continues to win over shoppers with lower prices and broader grocery selection.
Ten years after its establishment, Amazon Business is expanding its seller network and product selection to serve an 8 million global organization customer base, which has grown 33% from 6 million in 2023. Many of the capabilities that individual shoppers enjoy on Amazon’s B2C platform—broad selection, cost savings, and advanced technology—are being applied to its B2B marketplace to help organizations work smarter and more efficiently. As Amazon Business continues to innovate, it is poised to compete for more sales from companies seeking to save time and resources.
The news: Lowe’s is acquiring Foundation Building Materials (FBM) for approximately $8.8 billion. The North American distributor of interior building products generated roughly $6.5 billion in revenues in 2024 on a pro forma basis and operates more than 370 locations across the US and Canada, serving 40,000 Pro customers. Its business spans both new construction and repair/remodel applications. Our take: Lowe’s is playing the long game. By doubling down on Pro customers, the retailer is building a buffer against consumer caution and the frozen housing market. FBM’s scale positions Lowe’s to capture long-term share as construction rebounds, and the raised sales guidance signals confidence that its Pro-focused playbook is already delivering results. That stands in contrast to Home Depot, which recently fell short of both revenue and earnings expectations for the first time in a decade. While Home Depot has leaned into its Pro business as well, tariffs, elevated housing costs, and labor pressures are weighing on its results. Lowe’s acquisitions and investments could give it an edge in weathering near-term headwinds and winning share from contractors and builders who will be critical growth drivers over the next decade.
Estée Lauder posted a wider quarterly loss as sales slumped and warned that tariffs could reduce earnings by about $100 million over the next year. Estée Lauder is taking necessary steps to turn around its business—focusing on product innovation, cutting costs, and broadening its customer reach—but it will be tough given intense competition in the beauty market. With key rival L’Oreal gaining US momentum and newer brands emerging, Estée Lauder must accelerate product innovation, reduce reliance on discounting, rebuild momentum in China, and take other steps to win new customers, or risk ceding more ground in the longer term.
The situation: TJX is thriving as shoppers flock to its off-price value proposition. Our take: Off-price retailers like TJX’s T.J. Maxx and Marshalls are poised to thrive this holiday season, when consumers are likely to be both budget-minded and eager for discovery. TJX’s model allows it to avoid much of the tariff pain weighing on full-price retailers, since it sources excess merchandise at steep discounts. At the same time, retailers frontloading inventory in anticipation of tariff impacts may unintentionally flood the off-price channel with fresh product. That could create a double advantage heading into Q4: sharper values for shoppers, and a “treasure hunt” experience that can pull traffic away from department stores and specialty chains at a time when promotional intensity will be fierce.
The news: American Express bolstered its array of hotels and resorts for Platinum members ahead of its much-anticipated Platinum refresh. The credit card company also debuted exclusive Amex experiences at the US Open Tennis Championship this week. Our take: Expanding its resort collection can help Amex cement its dominance in the premium travel card space. Its lineup at the US Open signals the power of experiential rewards, which craft a unique, memorable experience for members that extends beyond cash or material incentives—a clever way to distinguish itself from rivals like the Chase Sapphire Reserve.
The news: Mastercard has awarded WPP Media its $180 million media account after ending its relationship with Dentsu-owned Carat. Our take: WPP Media’s previous with PayPal may give insight into the type of media it might produce for Mastercard. As the creative firm behind the “Venmo Everything” campaign and the Will Ferrell-fronted PayPal Pay Later campaign, Mastercard’s new promos likely will feature zeitgeisty and generationally buzzy celebrities to target younger demographics.
As card demand contracts and consumers pay down debt, banks may be sidelining spend-ready customers before stagflation takes hold.
The news: Home Depot is raising prices on select products to offset tariff-driven cost increases. The move marks an about-face from May, when the retailer said its diversified supply chain would shield it from price hikes. At the time, Home Depot framed holding prices steady as a chance to gain share, but near-universal tariffs have made that increasingly untenable. Our take: Home Depot’s shift illustrates how tariffs are weighing on retailers across categories—even those with diversified supply chains and strong domestic sourcing. Passing costs along to consumers could protect margins in the short term, but it risks dampening demand in an already fragile housing and home improvement market. If tariffs remain in place or expand further, retailers like Home Depot will be stuck between paying more for goods and serving customers reluctant to spend. That dynamic could accelerate SKU rationalization, push more retailers to lean on higher-margin private labels, and force difficult trade-offs between protecting margins and holding share. For Home Depot, its ability to retain relatively high-spending homeowners and pros gives it a cushion, but sustaining growth into 2025 will hinge on how successfully it balances pricing power with customer loyalty in a sluggish housing market. Adjusted earnings per share were $4.68, up from $4.67 a year earlier, but short of the $4.71 expected. Revenues were $45.28 billion, up 4.9% YoY, but below the $45.36 billion expected. However, Home Depot reaffirmed its full-year outlook, guiding to growth in total sales of 2.8% and comparable sales of roughly 1%.
The news: BMO launched the BMO Escape Credit Card, a Mastercard credit card geared for travelers, per a press release. The Escape Credit Card will pack a $150 annual fee. New signees are eligible to earn up to 45,000 points after spending $5,000 within the first three months of their account opening.
The news: President Donald Trump expanded his steel and aluminum tariffs to cover 407 consumer goods that either contain, or are packaged in, aluminum or steel. The scope is wide-ranging, hitting everything from baby booster seats to microwave ovens to personal care products that come in metal containers or packaging.The news: President Donald Trump expanded his steel and aluminum tariffs to cover 407 consumer goods that either contain, or are packaged in, aluminum or steel. The scope is wide-ranging, hitting everything from baby booster seats to microwave ovens to personal care products that come in metal containers or packaging. The takeaway: The sweeping scope and sudden rollout underscore that tariff uncertainty isn’t going away—and could easily intensify. With US consumers now facing the highest average effective tariff rate since 1933, the ripple effects are clear: Higher costs will flow downstream, squeezing retailers and dampening consumer spending.
The news: TikTok is experiencing massive growth among older generations, with adoption for users 45+ growing 1,200% between 2019 and 2025, per CivicScience—suggesting its stickiness across demographics and emphasizing older consumers’ buying power. Our take: A successful social advertising strategy will strike a balance: Valuing younger demographics for their growing influence while accounting for the enduring importance of older generations for driving digital purchases as social media adoption skyrockets.
The finding: More than 1 in 3 Americans (36%) name alcohol as their go‑to restaurant drink, just ahead of soda (29%) and water (21%), per a July Harris Poll. Nearly 70% of recent diners ordered at least one alcoholic beverage, per Harris. Our take: Alcohol remains a top choice, but nonalcoholic options command the bulk of orders. Restaurants should tailor their beverage programs by guest profile and occasion—showcasing premium, adult‑centric cocktails for millennials and Gen X, while expanding on‑trend, flavorful NA and low‑ABV offerings to engage Gen Z and health‑conscious diners.
Retailers have built lucrative revenue streams from retail media networks (RMNs), leveraging on-site ad inventory and first-party transaction data. As the potential grows for consumers to shop through AI agents instead of retailer sites or apps, those data streams and ad surfaces are at risk.
Only 40% of US retail media networks (RMNs) offer self-service sales data, according to Q2 data from Mars United Commerce.
The trend: Brands are ramping up legal action over perceived infringements of their intellectual property. Our take: With brand loyalty ebbing as price concerns take priority, more companies are leaning on the law to keep rivals from undercutting their business. But there are limits: Ecommerce marketplaces like Amazon, Walmart, Temu, and Shein are crammed to the gills with dupes that are incredibly difficult to crack down on. While companies should protect their IP wherever possible, they also need to make clear to shoppers why their products are better than knockoff versions—and why they’re worth full price.