The news: Johnson & Johnson is expanding its US manufacturing presence with a $2 billion investment in North Carolina via a partnership with Fujifilm Biotechnologies. Our take: Some US builds have been in the works for years, which means pharma is happy to make this good-faith “concession”—especially after seeing the impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on global supply chains. Even if Trump changes course on tariffs, or if the next administration has a completely different view, pharma companies won’t regret having more production capability in their biggest market.
The trend: Consumers pay broadly different prices for the same healthcare procedures across the US, with the highest average negotiated rate more than 9 times the lowest average rate in a recent assessment by Trilliant Health. Our take: Consumers want to be able to compare healthcare costs, but it’s still unclear how forceful the federal government is going to be in mandating true transparency—and if consumers truly grasp the publicly posted prices for medical services. We expect hospitals will continue to push back on any new regulations, while insurers will keep information on negotiated rates behind closed doors, thus perpetuating price disparities and not arming consumers with actionable insights that will lower their healthcare costs.
The news: New details on the Trump administration and European Union trade agreement solidify a 15% tariff cap on generics and active pharmaceutical ingredients, but leave questions on brand-name drug imports. The takeaway: Pharma companies can breathe a sigh of relief with the certainty of 15% EU tariffs and another reprieve, at least for now, on MFN pricing. Although the threat remains, the MFN deadline has already shifted once from June to September and could be moved again. That said, drugmakers should continue discussions while preparing for counter measures if needed such as US-only drug launches or raising prices abroad.
The news: The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) released COVID-19 vaccine recommendations that contradict the federal government’s recent guidance shift. Our take: Conflicting vaccine guidance is creating confusion for patients and healthcare providers, while making public discourse on vaccines more divisive. The responsibility to fix this will now fall on local leaders. States, communities, and physicians must take charge. They need to deliver clear, evidence-based vaccine information directly to people through local clinics, schools, and pharmacies. They must also actively campaign for insurers to continue covering the shots.
The news: A closely watched GLP-1 experimental pill from Viking Therapeutics achieved lower-than-anticipated weight loss results in study data released Tuesday. Our take: While weight loss pills won't be as powerful as shots, they still offer a good solution. Losing 10% to 12% of weight is still a significant result. Plus, pills are much more convenient than injectibles. They're easier to store and take, and don't require a needle. Drug companies should focus on promoting these benefits to market the pills as a good weight loss option.
The news: Costco has opted against dispensing the FDA-approved abortion pill mifepristone at its 500+ pharmacy locations, per Bloomberg. Our take: Costco's position could offend many of its customers and reverse the goodwill it has earned by holding firm on its DEI policies amid right-wing criticism. Costco might risk further brand damage if it stands by the reason of weak consumer demand when there’s evidence showing an uptick in medication abortions.
The news: 26.5% of US adults with type 2 diabetes used a GLP-1 injectable drug last year, per CDC data published Thursday. Our take: While type 2 diabetes is still driving most GLP-1 prescribing today, there’s a healthcare opportunity to address obesity at the same time. Providers need to proactively educate patients with obesity about the risk for type 2 diabetes, while marketers can message GLP-1s as preventive care. Partner with physicians who’ve seen the benefits for their patients and social influencers touting health benefits they’ve gained after starting GLP-1s for weight loss.
The trend: Even amid the surging popularity of weight loss drugs, 60% of respondents to a recent Tebra survey admitted they’re hesitant to ask physicians about GLP-1 medications. Our take: Healthcare and pharma players in the GLP-1 space will want to double down on messaging that obesity is a chronic condition that often requires medication, while integrating testimonials from GLP-1 patients who are proud of their weight loss achievements. Marketers should also craft content that addresses physicians’ specific biases against weight loss drugs and refutes common misconceptions.
The news: Eli Lilly is hiking the UK price of its diabetes and weight loss drug Mounjaro by as much as 170% starting next month, depending on the dose size. The drugmaker also said it’s been working on raising prices of its medications in Europe and other developed countries. Our take: Drug pricing is so complicated that it could benefit pharma manufacturers, because it will be hard to know whether they’re truly equalizing prices or just finding ways around the Trump administration’s demands that other drugmakers could copy.
The news: BlinkRx debuted a new quick startup direct-to-consumer (D2C) offering for pharma companies, on the heels of President Trump’s demand for more D2C drug distribution. Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr, joined the board of BlinkRx in February. BlinkRx told Bloomberg it did not consult with Trump Jr. nor anyone in the Trump administration about the new offering. The takeaway: Pharma companies were already looking at new access models and ways to build direct connections to patients, but with the now pressing Trump demands, there’s new opportunity for digital health companies to offer vetted plug-and-play models.
The news: The FDA laid out a new FDA PreCheck initiative, aimed at helping pharma companies build US manufacturing plants more quickly. The takeaway: FDA PreCheck may ease manufacturing regulations and trim review time, but navigating real estate, construction, and skilled labor issues still means pharma companies are facing years-long timelines to reshore drug manufacturing. Trump has promised a year or two grace period on his proposed 250% tariffs, but that may not be long enough to get plants up and running. Pharma should look to cut deals—like Apple’s recent tariff exemption granted by Trump after it promised to invest $100 billion in US manufacturing—to guarantee exemptions as long as projects are underway.
The news: Illinois passed a law banning AI therapy, becoming the first state to outlaw the technology for mental health advising. Therapists in the state can still use AI for administrative tasks like transcription and note taking, but not for diagnoses or treatment decisions. Our take: Healthcare providers need to balance the need for AI mental health chatbots with the potential for misuse. Look for digital health companies using tested science and research to develop AI therapy chatbots, transparent practices, and safeguards for flagging problems.
The news: Eli Lilly’s stock plunged about 14% on Thursday as clinical results of its experimental obesity pill orforglipron fell short of Wall Street expectations. Our take: We think Lilly has the edge over Novo, despite Thursday’s market reversal due to Lilly’s obesity pill falling short in its trial. That’s likely just a near-term blip—12% weight loss in a little over a year validates that the medication is quite effective, especially when considering that most people would prefer a pill to injecting themselves. Lilly also has in its favor that Zepbound drives better weight loss results than Wegovy, while it faces less competition from the copycat GLP-1 market since semaglutide is more commonly compounded than tirzepatide.
The news: The maker of the Cologuard at-home colon cancer screening test, Exact Sciences, is buying the rights to a promising blood test for colon cancer. The takeaway: As early colon cancer rates increase, more young people are becoming interested in screening. Blood tests adds another option, and for Exact’s Cologuard, known for irreverent ad campaigns for the at-home stool sample kits, another way to advocate for more screening.
The news: President Trump said to CNBC on Tuesday that forthcoming tariffs on pharma products imported to the US could reach 250%. It’s the highest rate on pharma tariffs that Trump has mentioned to date. Our take: 250% is an enormous number, but it’s more of a threat than an end result that will impair the sector. Such a high levy rate will likely spur further manufacturing commitments, which is something Big Pharma is prepared for—especially if they’re given 18 months to move more production to the US.
The news: A California court ruled Meta’s collection of menstrual health data violated state privacy laws, per TechCrunch. The takeaway: The Meta case puts tech companies that use health data for ad targeting and marketing on notice. Explicit consent and absolute transparency is not only legally critical around healthcare data, but also key to building trust with consumers.
The news: President Trump sent letters to 17 pharma companies, demanding they take action to lower drug prices in the US within 60 days. Our take: We think it’s unrealistic to expect pharma companies to willingly cut their profits despite Trump’s escalated demands. Drugmakers called out in the letter will likely wait out Trump’s deadline and see what he threatens next, knowing they could always legally challenge the most-favored nation order. We also expect more pharma companies to make some of their medicines available through the D2C channel, perhaps seeing it as a reasonable good-faith concession that they hope will get Trump to back off the most-favored nation pricing.
The news: Merck is teaming with McKinsey for a generative AI (genAI) program that streamlines clinical study reports (CSRs). The takeaway: GenAI is ideal for time-intensive precise medical writing and frees content creators for oversight and strategic tasks. While Merck and some others are already using it for regulatory filings, those who stall or keep their pilots in the experimentation phase risk losing valuable time-to-market advantages.
The news: CVS’s Q2 earnings topped estimates, buoyed by solid performance in its retail pharmacy segment and signs that its health insurance division is finally turning things around. Our take: CVS may not be thriving compared with earlier in the decade, but it’s in a good position relative to most of its rivals. That’s largely because of its diversified footprint across healthcare (pharmacy, insurance, PBM) that prevents the company from being overexposed in one struggling sector. CVS’ ongoing company turnaround could be a good sign for the similarly structured UnitedHealth, DOJ investigations notwithstanding.