61% of Gen Z shoppers used AI tools to help with a purchase in the last year, according to a September 2025 survey from PayPal.
This year’s Cyber Five brought in record sales, but it’s still unclear how consumer spending will unfold through the rest of the holiday season and into the new year. Shoppers are moving in different directions based on their financial stability, and many are starting their holiday buying weeks earlier. Coming out of the gate with strong value and consistent messaging is paying off early, but brands must keep that energy going as the season stretches and shifts.
Midmarket department stores entered the holiday season with surprising momentum after strong Q3 results, prompting Macy’s, Kohl’s, and Dillard’s to raise their outlooks. But the improvement comes amid a strained consumer environment as low- and middle-income shoppers remain cautious. Softer Black Friday traffic and growing shifts toward off-price chains signal ongoing pressure. The results suggest that despite signs of progress, these retailers must sharpen their value proposition to compete more effectively for value-seeking consumers in the months ahead.
TikTok Shop’s US GMV exceeded $500 million from Black Friday through Cyber Monday, fueled by a nearly 50% jump in shoppers and rapid momentum in livestream commerce. Brands and sellers using livestreams saw 84% sales growth as viewers engaged with more than 760,000 sessions generating 1.6 billion views, a trend amplified by major influencers like Kim Kardashian. Other platforms, including Whatnot, also posted strong holiday results, signaling growing comfort with live buying. The data points to TikTok Shop’s accelerating scale and suggests it is well positioned to capture a larger share of holiday spending as more major brands join the platform.
US small businesses largely missed out on the record Big Five shopping, per a Fiserv press release. Issuers and payment providers should look to boost their local merchants’ sales and consumers’ spending by making it easier to shop small. Local neighborhood networks like Square Neighborhood and Bilt’s local deals can encourage SMB spending in consumers’ stomping grounds. Integrated BNPL offers may also entice spending from young consumers who are adverse to the perceived risks of revolving credit or are locked out from traditional lines.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss what’s still holding Amazon back in grocery — and what could finally move the needle. Listen to the discussion with Vice President of Content and host Suzy Davidkhanian, Principal Analyst Sky Canaves, and Senior Analyst Blake Droesch.
Old Navy wants to stand out for consumers with convenience, now offering same-day delivery on items including jeans, beanies, and dress shoes through DoorDash. “It’s a classic win-win,” said Nishith Rastogi, founder and CEO of Locus, a logistics tech provider recently acquired by IKEA parent company Ingka Group. “The retailer gets speed, and the platform gets density and stronger utilization across its network.”
American Eagle’s Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce campaigns helped get eyes on the brand but failed to deliver the sales lift analysts were expecting. The two campaigns combined generated over 44 billion impressions, but comparable sales for the American Eagle brand rose just 1% YoY in the quarter, missing expectations for 2.1% growth. Ultimately, American Eagle’s record Q3 revenues owed less to the high-visibility Sweeney ad and more to strong execution at its Aerie brand, where comparable sales rose 11%. While buzzy celebrity-led campaigns can help restore brand relevance, their impact will be fleeting if companies’ merchandising and product availability fall short.
More than half of US holiday shoppers (55%) plan to make purchases online, according to an October 2025 survey from the National Retail Federation.
Cyber Monday generated a record $14.25 billion in US online sales, rising 7.1% year over year and slightly surpassing expectations despite a Shopify outage. Strong momentum carried through the Cyber Five period, highlighted by a 9.1% Black Friday jump, while inflation steered shoppers toward categories like electronics, apparel, and furniture. BNPL usage hit an all-time high with $1.03 billion in spending, and mobile devices drove most purchases at 57.5%. The season’s performance underscores resilient demand but also a more price-sensitive consumer increasingly reliant on value and flexible payment options.
Dick's Sporting Goods is using interactive sports experiences in its stores to build better opportunities for advertisers on its retail media network. “We’re seeing what we’re doing [with] in-store advertising as an extension of what we’re doing with our retail environment holistically,” said Dick's Sporting Goods vice president of retail media David Young, at a recent retail media session hosted by DPAA.
Marketing professionals see AI leading to several shifts in consumer behavior that will greatly impact the fundamentals of digital advertising in the next 2 to 3 years, per a Funnel and Ravn Research study of in-house marketers and agency professionals. As AI reshapes digital and search advertising, the brands that thrive will be those who seize the opportunities presented by AI-driven changes.
Costco has filed suit against the Trump administration to secure the right to a full refund of the IEEPA tariffs it paid this year, tying its claim to a pending Supreme Court ruling on whether Trump had authority to impose the duties. The company also seeks to pause tariff collection as the case unfolds, citing a December 15 liquidation deadline that could make the payments unrecoverable. With businesses stuck in prolonged uncertainty and others filing similar protective suits, Costco is taking a pragmatic, defensive step to shield itself from a costly legal limbo.
Shein and Temu are under intensifying global scrutiny as US, European, and Chinese authorities tighten oversight of Chinese-affiliated ecommerce platforms. Texas is investigating Shein over forced labor and safety concerns, while Sen. Tom Cotton is urging a federal probe into IP theft at both companies. The pressure extends abroad, with Shein’s French marketplace suspended and China demanding sales data to combat tax evasion. With de minimis advantages eroding and consumer trust wavering, these platforms must strengthen marketplace quality and local partnerships to remain competitive amid rising regulatory risk.
This year’s standout merch campaigns show why branded products are having a moment, not as giveaways, but as attention engines. From pop culture sparks to sustainability and event-driven personalization, the examples demonstrate what makes merch work when digital noise is at its loudest.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) will enable Visa Intelligence in its marketplace, bringing agentic commerce capabilities to AWS’s merchant list, per a press release. However, US consumers still have trepidation about letting bots complete purchases on their behalf—almost 70% of US adults are uninterested in testing out AI shoppers, per an EMARKETER and Civic Science survey. Major payment players hoping to benefit from agentic-driven volume need to develop incentives or roll out education materials to assure consumers that bot-driven shopping is safe and effective.
Klarna rolled out tap to pay on iPhones and Androids across 14 European markets, expanding its reach for in-store purchases, per a press release. Rolling out tap to pay in Europe shows the Klarna’s ambition to secure seamless ways to check out for its users. With Klarna and Affirm already available in-store through Apple Pay in the US, BNPL providers have to weigh how much in-app tap to pay rollouts could gain traction among US consumers who are already accustomed to Apple Wallet—and what incentives could entice them to leave the Apple ecosystem.
Amazon is testing ultra-fast delivery for fresh groceries and other household essentials in some areas of Seattle and Philadelphia. The service, called Amazon Now, allows shoppers in eligible neighborhoods to receive thousands of items in 30 minutes or less. While Amazon continues to invest in its brick-and-mortar grocery business, enhancing its ecommerce initiatives appears to be taking precedence. Speeding up delivery could help Amazon extend its foothold in grocery while keeping shoppers wedded to its platform, but our forecast expects its share of digital grocery sales to dip as Walmart, pure-play grocers, and intermediary delivery platforms grow their piece of the pie.
Walmart finalized its Vizio acquisition one year ago, a move that clearly telegraphed its advertising ambitions and positioned it to be a dominant retail media player. Vizio considerably strengthens Walmart’s pitch to advertisers by giving it more opportunities to get in front of engaged audiences and providing more data for better targeting and measurement. Walmart’s newfound CTV capabilities also help establish the retailer as a full-funnel ad solution, increasing its appeal to both endemic and nonendemic brands.
In a special Thanksgiving-themed episode of “Behind the Numbers,” we ranked the retail and brand initiatives we’re thankful for this season, from viral merchandise to purpose-driven campaigns. "We're looking at those strategies, launches, and collabs that we're genuinely grateful for, the moves that made us smile, surprised us, or gave us hope for where retail is headed," said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian.