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Marcus Johnson (00:00):

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(00:22):

Hey, gang, it's Friday, August 22nd. Jeremy, Sarah, Paul, and listeners, welcome to Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER video podcast made possible by Awin. I'm Marcus and joining me in the studio we have senior director of briefings Jeremy Goldman.

Jeremy Goldman (00:36):

Hey, Happy World Plant Milk Day. Yeah, I think that's what it is.

Marcus Johnson (00:40):

Did you make that up?

Jeremy Goldman (00:41):

It's a real thing. You can Google it. We'll have a-

Marcus Johnson (00:43):

You just told us you couldn't find one for today and now you've said something about world plant milk.

Jeremy Goldman (00:47):

Well, I think you're hallucinating. Are you an AI browser?

Marcus Johnson (00:50):

I don't think that... I'm going to assume this one... They're all fake, let's be honest. Are any of them real that you bring to the table?

Jeremy Goldman (00:59):

I think at least some of them are, yeah.

Marcus Johnson (01:02):

It's a soft no. We're also joined by principal retail and commerce media analyst, Sarah Marzano. Hello.

Sarah Marzano (01:08):

Hey Marcus, thanks for having me.

Marcus Johnson (01:10):

A normal-

Sarah Marzano (01:12):

Well, he took the World Milk Day, so I have nothing to add.

Marcus Johnson (01:15):

You have nothing. Also joined remote from Maine, VP of content, it's Paul Verna.

Paul Verna (01:21):

Great to be here, although I wish I were there.

Marcus Johnson (01:24):

You really don't. It's a rough start.

Sarah Marzano (01:26):

We miss you.

Marcus Johnson (01:27):

Today's fact. Parts of the brain can fall asleep whilst you're awake.

Sarah Marzano (01:35):

I think that's happening to me right now.

Paul Verna (01:37):

Yeah, I knew that.

Marcus Johnson (01:37):

[inaudible 00:01:38], Sarah?

Paul Verna (01:38):

I knew that. It's my lived experience every day.

Marcus Johnson (01:41):

It's called local sleep and the National Institute of Health describes it as a phenomenon where specific brain regions enter a sleep-like state while the rest of the brain remains awake, occurring because of things like sleep deprivation or repetitive tasks. There's also something called the doorway effect. You guys know what this is?

Jeremy Goldman (02:01):

No.

Marcus Johnson (02:01):

You've all experienced it. Trust me. So you know when you forget why you entered a room?

Sarah Marzano (02:04):

Hmm-hmm.

Marcus Johnson (02:07):

In a Scientific American article, researchers at Notre Dame University explain that your brain organizes information into event models. So when you walk through a doorway, your brain thinks it's the end of an event because whatever happened in the old room is likely to become less relevant now that you've changed venues, as a result of that transition some short-term memories linked to the previous room get filed away, making it harder to recall while you came in the room in the first place.

Sarah Marzano (02:32):

That's the most interesting fun fact you've brought-

Marcus Johnson (02:35):

Try to be that shocked, please.

Sarah Marzano (02:36):

Sorry. I really like that one.

Marcus Johnson (02:36):

Thank you.

Sarah Marzano (02:36):

I'm trying to be nice.

Jeremy Goldman (02:36):

I was going to say-

Paul Verna (02:41):

I like it too, but I live in an open concept space-

Sarah Marzano (02:43):

No excuse.

Paul Verna (02:44):

... and I forget stuff all the time.

Jeremy Goldman (02:46):

I mean, I was going to say that's why a lot of New Yorkers live in a studio. You have your bathroom right in the middle of your living room and this way-

Marcus Johnson (02:53):

This is the reason?

Jeremy Goldman (02:54):

... you're never entering new rooms. Problem solved.

Marcus Johnson (02:56):

That why they're doing it?

Jeremy Goldman (02:56):

Yeah.

Marcus Johnson (02:57):

Well played New York.

Jeremy Goldman (02:57):

We've got great memories.

Marcus Johnson (02:59):

Anyway, today's real topic. What if the future of digital actually looks quite different? Mini Shark Tank style. Okay, so this flavor of episode used to be called Very Specific But Highly Unlikely Predictions. We shortened it to What If? How does it work? Great question. Each person, Jeremy first, will have 60 seconds to pitch eight very specific but highly unlikely prediction for the future of digital in 2026, which happens to be the name of the event we have coming up in a few weeks. Still some tickets. I don't know if that's true, but you could try. And then the rest of us who will all be there, me, Sarah, and Paul, in the instance if Jeremy's going first, and everyone listening will decide if we are going to invest/believe in the prediction, then we move on to the next contestant and repeat. So Sarah will be next. Me, Jeremy, and Paul will become the new panel. Let's do it. Jeremy, [inaudible 00:03:56] go.

Jeremy Goldman (03:56):

What if browsers become the new AI battleground?

Marcus Johnson (04:01):

Tell me more.

Jeremy Goldman (04:01):

Yeah, so I was thinking about this because Perplexity recently made an offer to buy Chrome for about twice its valuation. I think they could probably get a few loans to cover the rest, but it kind of got me thinking all of the training data that you get from browsers is incredibly valuable. And then basically controlling the interface, changing the way that users behave and just getting people to start in a browser is very, very valuable. And could this be something like if Chrome becomes no longer part of Google, that would be a really big deal, but also if you're Perplexity, you're spending a lot to develop Comet. I've played with a lot of other nascent browsers like Dia, which is a really cool one that Henry Powderly from our team turned me onto. And then there's so many other ones where you could very well see a glut of new search experiences that are a lot of training data for new AI models. So I'm really paying a lot of attention to this.

Marcus Johnson (05:09):

What do we think?

Paul Verna (05:11):

I'm a little skeptical because the browser seems secondary to me. So if Perplexity has enough mind-share and enough brand equity, they're going to want to create an experience that is even bigger and more far-reaching than just a browser. So it would be a shopping assistant, an agent, just a lot of features that people don't necessarily associate with a browser. Very few browsers have name recognition. I mean we're basically talking about Chrome has the market cornered and I think if it were about the browser, Microsoft would've invested more in making Bing more sort of AI friendly and clearly they haven't gone in that direction.

(06:07):

So I'm not saying it can't happen. And Jeremy, I haven't experimented with some of these up and coming browsers that you have and maybe I might have a different take on it, but it's still like even if you have a really cool browser, you still have to build brand equity around that browser and you have to attract obviously a lot of traffic to monetize it. So it's a tall order to kind of upset the browser status quo right now. But if Google is forced to sell, then I think all bets are off.

Sarah Marzano (06:42):

Yeah, I think an acquisition of a browser like Chrome would be the most plausible way this could go forward. So you don't have to think about changing the consumer habits and getting them to use something new.

Marcus Johnson (06:51):

Yeah, I think I'm out. Because you said AI battleground as well, and I'm wondering how much of... It seems like there are a lot of up and coming browsers. How much of a battleground will it be do you think?

Jeremy Goldman (07:02):

See, the thing is that if you create a new browser, let's say, and you're one of these players and you get only 3% market share, that's pretty meaningful to your bottom line.

Marcus Johnson (07:16):

Good point.

Jeremy Goldman (07:17):

And you're starting to control user behavior and a lot more. There is a reason why Google, what is it Paul, you might know? But 20 billion, a very high number to Apple to be the default search engine.

Marcus Johnson (07:30):

Oh yes, roughly around 20 billion.

Paul Verna (07:30):

Oh, yeah.

Jeremy Goldman (07:31):

So it's a lot of money and that kind of proves the value of controlling the search experience. If they're going to be agentic commerce and other types of assistance and they're embedded into a browser, then you can see a lot more uptick versus getting people to go to a specific URL. It's probably a lot more valuable to get people to download your browser and constantly interact and think about your company rather than getting people to a URL that they can quickly bounce off of and then they're no longer in your experience, right? It's the same way that we've seen a lot of brands spend a lot to develop and invest in their app because they have more control over that user experience then.

Marcus Johnson (08:12):

I like this one, but I'm out. Paul?

Paul Verna (08:15):

Yeah, I'm out. I have all my eggs in the crypto basket.

Marcus Johnson (08:20):

None to spare?

Paul Verna (08:21):

You guys can have the most brilliant ideas and I'm going to be out.

Marcus Johnson (08:24):

We should talk after.

Paul Verna (08:24):

Just kidding.

Marcus Johnson (08:25):

Sarah?

Sarah Marzano (08:25):

I'm going to say just to keep it interesting and at the very least you have motivated me.

Marcus Johnson (08:28):

Pity?

Sarah Marzano (08:30):

No-

Marcus Johnson (08:30):

You have pity investment.

Sarah Marzano (08:30):

... you've motivated me to go test some of these new browsers.

Jeremy Goldman (08:33):

I am honored. Thank you.

Sarah Marzano (08:33):

You've changed-

Marcus Johnson (08:33):

It's not the name of the game.

Jeremy Goldman (08:36):

I might have your back.

Sarah Marzano (08:37):

I thought I'd been invited to this one before.

Marcus Johnson (08:39):

Sarah's in, but she doesn't quite know why. All right Sarah, you're up. What if?

Sarah Marzano (08:43):

Oh God. Okay, my what if is, what if by 2026 we all realize that the notion that agentic AI assistance taking over shopping, that the hype around was actually just hype and that even if AI assistants can act autonomously and can technically shop on their own, we'll see that most people actually still prefer to have a lot of guidance over their purchase decisions and selection. And I brought a few backup pieces of evidence for this.

(09:14):

The first being Progressive Grocer runs a great study every year on the state of in-store tech for grocers and they do a consumer end of it. And from their most recent survey, they found that among consumers who don't shop online for groceries and more than 90% of groceries are still purchased in physical stores, 77% of those consumers say it's because they prefer to pick products themselves. If shopping was just about convenience, we'd see a much higher rate of grocery orders being fulfilled online. There was also a consumer survey from a company called Omnisend that found that 66% of US consumers that they wouldn't be willing to let AI make purchases on their behalf even if it meant they would get a better deal.

(09:55):

And then a much more sort of far-reaching pervasive argument that I feel like doesn't come up enough is that we have decades of research in behavioral science that tells us that predicting what individuals are going to purchase is logistically impossible. We can predict what large groups of populations are going to buy and that's what makes it possible to stock grocery stores with the right assortments based on where they're located. But knowing exactly what Sarah Marzano is going to purchase on her next grocery order is nearly impossible. So if there's too much friction that can occur by buying the wrong thing, and I just don't think consumers are going to be willing to give over their financial information to let this happen. Plus I think people like shopping.

Jeremy Goldman (10:37):

Oh, well, okay. So I'm in on this for a number of reasons especially-

Marcus Johnson (10:44):

[inaudible 00:10:44] pity?

Jeremy Goldman (10:44):

No, I was going to say not at all pitied.

Sarah Marzano (10:46):

He owes me.

Jeremy Goldman (10:47):

I do not owe her.

Marcus Johnson (10:47):

[inaudible 00:10:48].

Sarah Marzano (10:47):

I kicked him under the table.

Jeremy Goldman (10:48):

I do not owe her. I'm actually a slightly less in because she referred to herself in the third person, but-

Sarah Marzano (10:54):

I didn't like that either.

Jeremy Goldman (10:55):

Sorry.

Sarah Marzano (10:55):

Thoughts were happening. I was like, stop it.

Jeremy Goldman (10:58):

But I will say that what makes a lot of sense is there's a lot of times where people are shopping and they're doing it because it's fun and then they go back and return and they know they're going to return stuff and they don't like returning. But shopping is entertainment for a lot of people. I think that's why a lot of categories don't penetrate as well online. So that's a really good point. Do I think that this winds up taking up a share of the market? In some categories, yeah. But I think it's also going to take a lot longer. So since we're talking about the near term, definitely in on this one.

Marcus Johnson (11:30):

So just to confirm, you're saying that agentic AI is not going to overtake shopping next year or you just don't see this being a shift that's going to happen at any point?

Sarah Marzano (11:42):

I want to be specific that I'm talking about autonomous agentic purchases happening-

Marcus Johnson (11:48):

Right, [inaudible 00:11:49].

Sarah Marzano (11:48):

Because I think there's so much momentum and traction for shopping via AI assistant and there being a really significant new surface where customers are discovering and researching and considering products and that is going to be a disruption that impacts retail overall. But I think we get a little bit carried away when we get really excited about the ability of these agents to shop and make these purchase decisions autonomously. I just don't see that happening.

Marcus Johnson (12:17):

Okay, so let me quickly throw this to you because I found this graphic from us and it kind of explains how the current shopping journey is versus what using an AI agent might look like. So the current one, it goes through the steps, search engine, click on several ads, find product, visit social media to check out different posts on the product, visit marketplace, go back to the retailer's web to check prices, go back to the retailer's websites, create an account to check out, and then you buy the thing.

(12:48):

In the other world, it says, you're speaking to this thing and it says, "Please find me a black bag that will fit a laptop for under $50." It comes back with four options. Then you say, "Which one would you recommend?" I want to have it for this part of my commute, I commute by bike and then it says, "I recommend option two." The reviews say these are the reasons why, and then you say back, "Please order number two, deliver it by Thursday from a retailer for free delivery." And it says, "Sure, taken care of." Is that the world that you're saying won't exist or are you're saying most of that can exist, just not the buying bit at the end?

Sarah Marzano (13:22):

I think most of it can exist, but I also think that you're playing a significant role within that interaction around making the decision and giving the agent permission to do it, right?

Marcus Johnson (13:31):

Right. The agency is still with you.

Sarah Marzano (13:33):

And I think that will likely happen. I still think it's going to be small and it's going to not overtake most categories.

Jeremy Goldman (13:42):

Fashion for instance, that's to me a perfect example of, I don't think that you could describe to it what my taste is with a way that I would believe and trust it, but I don't know, very basic things around the house that are under $10 type of, just do some price comparison. Here's your budget. That to me makes sense-

Marcus Johnson (14:02):

You might see [inaudible 00:14:03].

Jeremy Goldman (14:03):

Exactly.

Paul Verna (14:05):

And on the fashion front, this is coming from a guy who's wearing purple in a purple studio. So hard to...

Jeremy Goldman (14:11):

I don't read the memos.

Paul Verna (14:12):

Hard to convey that sort of purple haze and purple rain thing, but I'm in on this one. I'm skeptical of the agent basically controlling that entire chain right through the purchase. I think there are definitely aspects of it that people will appreciate having an agent or an AI assistant for. But it reminds me a little bit of a cartoon I saw way back when Jeff Bezos bought Whole Foods and the cartoon was of him saying, "Alexa, please pull up my Whole Foods grocery list so I can buy my stuff there." And then Alexa just heard buy Whole Foods. And then you see this panicked look on Jeff Bezos face, which he can afford it either way, most of us can't.

(15:04):

So if my $10,000 vacation for four is something that I completely entrust an agent to do, I'm not going to feel comfortable with that or even something a lot less than that. So yeah, I think for me it's not so much about the shopping experience being fun because frankly for me, a lot of times it's like pulling hair and as you can see, I've already pulled all of my hair, but it's really more about just the wallet, like tapping into your wallet.

Sarah Marzano (15:33):

Yeah, I think something that your example makes me think of is in the 2010s with the rise of all the digitally native brands, we also saw a lot of subscription models that were meant to ease replenishment of products that they knew you were going to have to repurchase.

Paul Verna (15:44):

Yes.

Jeremy Goldman (15:45):

Yeah.

Sarah Marzano (15:45):

And that was obviously a sort way to lock in recurring revenue. But subscriptions are really hard to get right because there's so much friction if you... Let's say that it's your shampoo or your toothpaste, you get it too late, you're without your toothpaste for a few days. That sucks. You get it too soon, you don't have anywhere to put it, right? So keeping customers in that subscription journey is really inherently difficult. And I think there's a lot of parallels you can draw to letting an autonomous agent make your purchase decisions for you. Because if something goes wrong, then it's still on you to fix.

Marcus Johnson (16:20):

Yeah. Even if you have a smart fridge with a million cameras and they say, "Oh, I can see you're getting low on milk." Who knows how long it'll take you to finish that milk?

Sarah Marzano (16:28):

Maybe you're going out of town.

Marcus Johnson (16:28):

What was that?

Sarah Marzano (16:28):

Or maybe you're going out of town.

Marcus Johnson (16:29):

Exactly. So it is really hard to predict-

Jeremy Goldman (16:30):

Shout out to World Plant, what is it?

Sarah Marzano (16:34):

You need to make it roll off the tongue a little.

Jeremy Goldman (16:36):

Never mind. Cut that. We can cut that.

Sarah Marzano (16:38):

Don't cut it.

Marcus Johnson (16:39):

Still committed to this one? Okay, good. Are you in on this prediction?

Jeremy Goldman (16:42):

Oh yeah. I was in before you guys. Come on.

Marcus Johnson (16:45):

He's trying to take the bigger share of the investment. I'm in for all the reasons you said, but also some Salesforce data I've got here as you can see on the screen, interest level in AI agents for select uses. Top is optimize your loyalty points. Please do that for me.

Sarah Marzano (17:01):

Sure.

Marcus Johnson (17:01):

The bottom, buy stuff. Purchase complimentary items based on existing products or purchase recommended products on your behalf. So I'm in. Paul, what you got for us?

Paul Verna (17:13):

What if Gen AI leads to more of the kinds of jobs that it can easily destroy?

Marcus Johnson (17:18):

This one's fascinating. Explain yourself.

Paul Verna (17:20):

So I saw this data point from Freelancer.com about how in Q2 there's been this really big surge in job postings for the kinds of jobs that you would think AI is really encroaching on. And these are mostly creative jobs. And this goes to the point of one of the biggest use cases of Gen AI is to generate content, creative content. So things like job postings for Adobe Lightroom skills or blog writing or Instagram content creation, video production. These are all up mostly in the double-digit percentage from the previous quarter.

(18:03):

If you look at the overall job market, and I know there's been a lot of controversy about the job numbers, but I went to Indeed.com's research section and I did an analysis of their daily average job postings in Q1 and then in Q2, and overall it's down in Q2 by 2.8%. So there's clearly something happening with these jobs that people still need creative people for. And I don't think AI is going to change that, at least not in the short term. So there's all this Sturm und Drang about like, oh, AI is going to replace writers and creators, but I think that that human touch and that skillset is really valuable and is going to remain for quite a while.

Marcus Johnson (18:56):

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock refers to it as a restructuring, which I think is an interesting way of putting it as opposed to you're going to get rid of a lot or you're going to gain a lot, but it's going to look different. So I think I'm half in at this point.

Jeremy Goldman (19:10):

I was going to ask you if we can be half in, and then can I tell you why.

Marcus Johnson (19:13):

Suzy created it. Yeah.

Sarah Marzano (19:13):

Typical.

Marcus Johnson (19:13):

Exactly. That's why [inaudible 00:19:18].

Jeremy Goldman (19:17):

Unlike vegetation, which she cannot create, right?

Sarah Marzano (19:20):

She actually does a great job.

Marcus Johnson (19:22):

She's a shocking farmer.

Jeremy Goldman (19:22):

So yeah, Paul, I think the reason why I would say I'm half in is because of, to Mr. Fink's point, the idea of this restructuring, I think it's going to hit some jobs for sure. Let's say you might have seven copywriters on staff and maybe you can get that job done with four and it impacts your team in one way, but you also might hire a few new people. And I think the perfect example of this is if you think about social media video and creator content, you create a little bit of... The more you create, the more you create the awareness that this is a career path and then more people go down that route. And so I think that all the Gen AI tools means that it will create a lot of jobs, but the displacement is also real. So that's why I'm a little bit half in.

Marcus Johnson (20:14):

Yeah, it feels like both things are going to be true, right?

Paul Verna (20:17):

Yeah. I don't think it's binary. And I think a lot of these job postings for all these creative positions, all those people applying into those jobs are going to be using AI more even within the context of those apps that they're experts in. So it's definitely not an either or scenario, but I think that the point I'm trying to make is that the value of the actual creative touch and the human touch is still there. And I think that AI is just not going to completely do away with that.

Marcus Johnson (20:52):

Yeah. Sarah?

Sarah Marzano (20:54):

As a writer, I'm all in on your prediction, but I think there's something to it. I agree with everyone that the pendulum might swing too far in one direction before it settles in the other direction, but I think it's going to hopefully kick off some real critical thought around the quality of the work that's getting put out and the balance of efficiency and what AI can do for us on that end with being able to put out really forward thinking or creative work, which I just don't see AI being able to replace.

Marcus Johnson (21:26):

Yeah. I mean it could become a very unique selling point. The human-

Sarah Marzano (21:30):

Just being a human?

Marcus Johnson (21:31):

Yes. I really liked the way Yuri described it. He was saying the way that you look at music as acoustic and what that feeling does to you when you think about going to an acoustic set versus one that's plugged in. The human created content being the acoustic version. So I think there could be something there. It could be this content was human made and that being a really strong selling point.

Sarah Marzano (21:56):

When I write LinkedIn posts lately, I don't use AI because I'm so sick of reading everyone's Gen AI generated copy on LinkedIn. Obviously I spend way more time on LinkedIn than the average person, but... Can I suggest that our next EMARKETER event be called Analysts Unplugged?

Jeremy Goldman (22:14):

Oh, that is such a great... Yes. I love that.

Marcus Johnson (22:17):

I'm half in.

Jeremy Goldman (22:20):

Half.

Sarah Marzano (22:21):

I was in.

Marcus Johnson (22:22):

All right, sorry. Paul?

Sarah Marzano (22:23):

I thought we already did that. Wait, sorry. Wait, did Jeremy-

Jeremy Goldman (22:25):

He likes to confirm though.

Marcus Johnson (22:28):

Yeah, I was confirming.

Sarah Marzano (22:28):

Okay.

Marcus Johnson (22:28):

For the listeners.

Sarah Marzano (22:29):

Got it.

Marcus Johnson (22:29):

Who are no longer paying attention.

Paul Verna (22:30):

Because they might've walked through a doorway and forgot.

Sarah Marzano (22:32):

I kind of stopped paying attention for a second.

Marcus Johnson (22:34):

Exactly. There we go. Yeah, see if you're not paying attention, can't really expect the listeners to be either. If you are still listening to us, thank you for hanging on by a thread. Sarah had the most investment. I think, Jeremy... No, Paul was second. Jeremy, tough guy. But I appreciate it.

Jeremy Goldman (22:50):

That's fair.

Marcus Johnson (22:51):

Congratulations to Sarah.

Sarah Marzano (22:52):

Thanks.

Marcus Johnson (22:52):

You won.

Sarah Marzano (22:55):

I'm retiring. I retired today.

Marcus Johnson (22:58):

[inaudible 00:22:58] you guys knew how competitive she's been.

Paul Verna (22:58):

Oh, Verna thinks you have the right to refer to yourself in the third person.

Marcus Johnson (23:02):

She doesn't.

Sarah Marzano (23:03):

That's what I win.

Marcus Johnson (23:04):

Well all of these predictions have been about the future of digital. As I mentioned, we have an event September 9th that we will all be at. They will be speaking. I will be handing out free merch. So come say hi and you can learn more about the events called The Future of Digital at EMARKETER.com/events for information or tickets. That's all we have time for. Thank you so much to my guests. Thank you to Jeremy.

Jeremy Goldman (23:26):

Pleasure as always.

Marcus Johnson (23:27):

And to Sarah.

Sarah Marzano (23:28):

Thanks for having me. I won.

Marcus Johnson (23:28):

Of course to Paul.

Paul Verna (23:30):

Always a pleasure. And I'd like the next podcast to be called Analysts Unhinged.

Marcus Johnson (23:36):

Sarah will be on that one. Did you say hi, mom?

Sarah Marzano (23:38):

No, I said I won.

Marcus Johnson (23:39):

Oh, okay. All right. Thank God.

Sarah Marzano (23:40):

My mom doesn't listen.

Marcus Johnson (23:42):

That's okay.

Paul Verna (23:43):

Not yet. Not yet.

Jeremy Goldman (23:44):

She will to this one.

Paul Verna (23:45):

Now that you won.

Marcus Johnson (23:47):

She doesn't need to. Thanks to the whole production crew and to everyone for listening in to Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER video podcast made possible by Awin. Subscribe, follow, rate, review all of the things. We'll be back Monday. Happiest of weekends.