Retailers face an atypical holiday season. Instead of the usual end-of-year boom, 2025 is expected to bring a rare deceleration in holiday sales growth.

“We expect that consumer spending will be more restrained during the 2025 holiday season,” said our analyst Sky Canaves during a recent Meet the Analyst webinar. “Brands and retailers won’t be able to bank on the traditional holiday season to compensate for the rest of the year.”

November-December sales will increase by 1.2%, according to our May forecast, below our full-year projection of 1.5% due to slowing consumer spending, inflated prices, and wavering confidence.

Despite economic uncertainty, opportunities lie in tapping Gen Z’s influence, mobile commerce growth, and AI tools that personalize the shopping journey.

Mobile is driving ecommerce growth

Mobile commerce will drive over 90% of the net increase in holiday ecommerce sales this year, according to EMARKETER’s May 2025 forecast.

• Mobile penetration is expected to reach 56.5% in 2025 and almost all the growth in holiday ecommerce is from mobile, well above the full-year average of 46.1%.

Mobile has become the control center for holiday shopping. Consumers are browsing deals during their commute or comparing prices in-store.

“The shift to mobile is more than just a trend,” said Meredith Gaiser Mitchell, industry marketing lead, retail and ecommerce at Braze in the webinar. “It’s the primary way customers engage with brands. Discovery happens everywhere.”

Gen Z shops where they scroll

Gen Z’s influence on holiday shopping is hard to ignore. Their behavior blurs the lines between social and commerce.

• About 70% of US Gen Zers discover products on TikTok, Canaves explained, citing EMARKETER’s Path to Purchase survey.
• Some 42.5% of US Gen Zers said TikTok was the most useful platform for product research.

Platforms like TikTok Shop, with integrated checkout and secure payments, make it seamless for consumers to move from discovery to purchase.

“Brands should look at social platforms like TikTok, not just for brand awareness, but also as a critical part of their conversion funnel,” said Mitchell, emphasizing the strategic opportunity.

AI-powered personalization will define holiday success

AI is rapidly becoming a cornerstone of holiday retail. Consumers use AI to discover products, while brands use it to tailor offers and experiences.

• “Globally, around 5% of shoppers are using AI chatbots to start their product searches. But among Gen Z, the rate is double,” Canaves said.
• Adoption is accelerating. Sales traffic to retail sites from genAI sources increased by 3,200% year over year during Amazon’s July Prime Day sale, According to Adobe.

Retailers are using AI-powered tools to meet rising expectations. AI shopping assistants like Amazon’s Rufus and Walmart’s Sparky are becoming more visible and capable.

“They’re improving in their ability to provide relevant and personalized recommendations,” Canaves added. “And again, we see younger consumers leading adoption and forging new behaviors when it comes to AI and shopping.”

This wave of AI innovation is driving hyper-personalization at scale. This will be a crucial advantage in a holiday season where shoppers are cautious, selective, and value-conscious.

With shoppers expected to be more discerning this year, brands can meet their needs by offering a free gift with purchase, gift sets, and other ways to reposition value and affordability as indulgences.

Consumers are more likely to buy from brands offering a personalized experience, Mitchell noted. She pointed to e.l.f. Beauty as a strong example, highlighting how the brand used customized year-in-review beauty recaps across email, SMS, and push to create engaging, one-to-one 2024 holiday experiences—an approach requiring foundational customer data and AI.

Personalized touches—like timely recommendation, relevant deals, or a seamless cross-channel journey—can turn a single transaction into lasting loyalty.

“The holidays are about making memories through gifting—and that starts with gifting the right message to your customers,” Mitchell said.

Watch the full webinar.

This was originally featured in the Retail Daily newsletter. For more retail insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.