The US economy is showing signs of strain just as retailers prepare for the holiday season, with weak job growth, rising unemployment, and soft consumer sentiment adding to inflation and tariff pressures. August saw only 22,000 new jobs created, while job cuts rose and openings fell to a two-year low, underscoring a fragile labor market. Consumers remain pessimistic, tightening their spending plans despite potential Fed rate cuts. Our outlook is cautious: holiday retail sales are projected to grow just 1.2%, forcing retailers to lean heavily on promotions and loyalty-driven discounts to capture demand without eroding margins.
The news: Zip partnered with Nift to bring AI-powered “thank-you” gifts to its checkout flow, per company announcements. The integration brands send Zip users tailored offers after making a purchase, aiming to strengthen loyalty while creating new ad inventory. Our take: Zip’s tie-up with Nift illustrates how fintechs are positioning themselves not only as payment providers but also as media channels. The average BNPL users will spend more than $1,600 a year by 2029, per our forecast. As spend per user climbs, Nift’s native, post-checkout placements with conversion rates up to 10% will be especially appealing to both Zip and brands.
Value-focused grocers are aggressively expanding as cost-conscious consumers seek affordable options, with Aldi set to open 225 US stores in 2025, Trader Joe’s adding 41, and Lidl continuing steady growth in key metro areas. Inflation pressures and lingering COVID-era costs are fueling a surge in private-label demand, which grew 4.4% year over year compared with 1.1% for national brands. These chains’ differentiated private-label strategies are driving above-average foot traffic, underscoring their appeal. The takeaway for competitors is clear: prioritize value while building unique private-label lines that strengthen margins and deepen customer loyalty.
Despite persistent inequities in the US healthcare system, Black, Hispanic, and Asian consumers are more positive about health and wellness. They actively look for and buy healthcare products and information online. To effectively reach Black, Hispanic, and Asian consumers, marketers should consider the following: Reflect their positive outlook on health and wellness. Be specific about how your brand can help. Use digital channels and social media to create engaging, educational videos. Partner with health influencers to connect with these younger, culturally aware audiences.
For podcasts that run under 15 minutes, an average of 21.8% of the play time is ads, according to an August 2025 report from Magellan AI.
The news: Visa will give developers new tools to adapt to the rise of agentic commerce on its platforms, per PYMNTS. But risks abound—uneven usability, haphazard standardization across issuers and merchants, and trepidation from consumers about using the tech: Just 30% of US consumers say they trust AI to make purchases for them, per Kantar. It is unlikely that customers will rapidly feel that using an online agent is as safe as placing an order themselves—and every mistake felt by merchants, consumers, and issuers on the agentic rollout will reinforce those opinions.
The news: PayPal and Venmo users can receive early access to Perplexity’s new browser, Comet, with a free 12-month trial of Perplexity Pro. Our take: Big Tech is betting that agentic commerce is the future of shopping, but consumers aren’t on board yet: Nearly 70% of US adults are not interested in AI-powered shopping assistants, per a September 2024 EMARKETER and CivicScience survey. While jostling for future positioning in the market, PayPal, Venmo, and Perplexity need to convince consumers that agentic commerce is a desirable payment option, lest they repeat a metaverse investment flop.
The news: Stripe asked the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to preserve fee-free open banking as the agency revises Rule 1033. Our take: For now, Section 1033 will remain in place. But as rulemaking proceeds, Stripe’s appeal to the CFPB may fall on deaf ears. The new rule will likely be a defanged version of its predecessor. We expect more firms will pursue Coinbase’s route—carving out individual deals with JPMorgan—or close up shop like Visa.
The trend: In the wake of the US closing the de minimis loophole, several large Chinese ecommerce and logistics firms have been investing in European warehouses to offset US losses, per Bloomberg. Our take: The days of rapid growth for Chinese ecommerce companies may be over. Europe might soften the blow from US losses, but it is unlikely to replace them—especially given the weak economic outlooks in France and Germany.
The news: General Motors is tapping the brakes on electric vehicle production just after posting its best-ever month of EV sales in August. The automaker plans to scale back output of the Chevy Bolt and two Cadillac models as the federal $7,500 EV tax credit expires at the end of this month. “It will take several months for the market to normalize,” wrote Duncan Aldred, senior vice president and president, North America, in a blog post explaining the move. In the meantime, GM aims to avoid overproduction, anticipating a “smaller EV market for a while.” Our take: GM revived the Bolt to fill an unmet niche: affordable EVs. While the GOP tax and spending bill may narrow that opportunity, strong consumer interest suggests GM can still carve out meaningful gains—if it delivers a compelling value-for-money proposition.
Old Navy is venturing deeper into beauty. The Gap Inc. unit will begin selling its own branded beauty products this fall, alongside an expanded selection of items from brands like e.l.f. and Mario Badescu, per The Wall Street Journal. Old Navy’s beauty expansion is a bold bet, given the enormous number of brands already in the market and the increasing ranks of retailers hoping to benefit from resilient beauty demand.
Black adults in the US spend 45.9% of their total TV time on streaming platforms—more than both cable (22.4%) and broadcast (21.8%) combined, according to July 2024 data from Nielsen.
Cracker Barrel’s short-lived rebrand—and its rapid reversal—has quickly become a cautionary tale for heritage brands navigating change.
Resale platform Depop launched its biggest US marketing campaign to date as it looks to expand its audience beyond its core Gen Z user base and capitalize on surging demand for secondhand goods. Growing global demand for resale presents challenges and opportunities—both for marketplaces that trade in secondhand goods, like Depop and eBay, as well as for traditional retailers.
The forecasts: The holiday season may bring more gloom than cheer for retailers as consumers tighten spending amid economic uncertainty. Average per-person spend during the season is projected to fall 5.3% YoY to $1,552, PwC reports. That’s the first significant drop since the 2020 pandemic. Gen Z is leading the pullback, with their holiday budgets set to plunge 22.5% after soaring 37.4% in last year’s survey (their actual spending rose just 6%, per PwC’s card data). That reversal reflects the mounting pressure they face from a stagnant job market, rising fixed costs, and thin savings. One in 4 (25%) Gen Zers now say their finances are worse than a year ago, up from 17% in 2024. Tariffs may be amplifying the pullback. A July CivicScience survey found 54% of consumers under 30—along with 47% of all gift buyers—plan to buy fewer or cheaper gifts due to tariff concerns. While our forecast is somewhat brighter—we expect sales in November and December to grow 1.2% YoY—even that would mark the weakest holiday sales gain since we began tracking the metric in 2009. Our take: Retailers should meet consumers where they are this holiday season by offering budget-friendly choices such as smaller sizes, bundles, and gift sets, while also using loyalty programs to push their best customers to spend.
Macy’s better-than-expected Q2 marks “the beginning of a momentum change,” CEO Tony Spring told Bloomberg, as the struggling department store finds its footing ahead of the holiday season. Macy’s is in a better position than most of its department store peers, thanks to its investments in the customer experience and its luxury banners. However, recovery could prove fleeting should consumer sentiment worsen and shoppers balk at higher prices. To keep its momentum going, Macy’s will need to continue investing in the customer experience and look for ways to differentiate its luxury banners.
The news: Target is offering select customers a free year subscription to its Target Circle 360 membership program if they spend $199 on qualifying purchases by September 20, per Modern Retail. The $99 per year membership program offers free same-day delivery from Target, Kroger, CVS, Petco, and other stores via Target’s Shipt service, along with early access to Target sales, exclusive discounts and deals, and an extended returns window. Our take: Target should borrow a page from Walmart and lean on partnerships to expand Circle 360. That could mean teaming up with companies like Burger King for perks or with credit card issuers like American Express to bundle free memberships. The real power of paid memberships isn’t just subscription revenues—it’s their stickiness. Amazon has shown that once customers pay for Prime, they try to maximize every perk—streaming, prescriptions, food delivery, free shipping—and the more they use, the more they spend. Nonmembers, by contrast, often plateau or pull back. If Target wants to keep pace, it needs to find ways to broaden Circle 360’s offerings.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss why investors wanted to bring in an outsider to right the ship, what’s most to blame for Target’s recent struggles, and what should be top of the new CEO’s to-do list. Join Senior Director of Podcasts and guest host, Marcus Johnson, and Senior Analysts, Blake Droesch and Arielle Feger.
American Eagle Outfitters’ bet on star power is helping the company recover from its sales slump. The retailer’s controversial campaign with Sydney Sweeney has been hugely successful, the company said, helping to boost brand awareness and drive shoppers to stores. Its recently announced collaboration with Travis Kelce also delivered an immediate sales bump. American Eagle’s celebrity-led marketing strategy is driving its recovery after a poor start to the year. By turning controversy into buzz, the brand’s campaigns have revived interest in its core products and expanded its appeal to a broader audience.
"In the space of what amounts to less than two years, we've seen commerce media evolve from an emerging idea to an industry pillar," said our analyst Sarah Marzano during a recent EMARKETER webinar.