The backdrop: The EU’s two largest economies face different but converging risks. Germany’s economy contracted 0.3% in Q2—worse than the preliminary -0.1% estimate—as manufacturing slumped after a temporary surge in US orders aimed at dodging tariffs, per Destatis. French Prime Minister François Bayrou will seek a vote of confidence in the National Assembly on September 8, a move likely to topple the government and inject fresh uncertainty into an economy heavily reliant on consumer spending. A political crisis could even push France into recession, Carrefour SA CEO Alexandre Bompard warned, per Bloomberg. Our take: While German households are pulling back amid economic gloom, French consumers have so far kept growth afloat. But if political turmoil erodes confidence, the two largest markets could synchronize into a broader slowdown. That would leave retailers with limited room to offset weakness, forcing many to lean on discounting, cost control measures, and/or value-driven formats to sustain sales.
The situation: Best Buy’s comparable sales rose 1.6% in Q2, its fastest pace in three years, driven by gains in gaming, computing, and mobile phones. A major boost came from the high-profile launch of Nintendo Switch 2, which pushed June sales up nearly 10%—the retailer’s best month since March 2021, per Bloomberg Second Measure, which tracks US debit and credit transactions. Our take: Best Buy is experimenting to reignite growth. Earlier this month it rolled out a third-party marketplace to broaden its assortment and began testing a store-within-a-store partnership with Ikea, positioning its appliances inside Ikea kitchens and laundry rooms. While neither move is likely to be a game-changer, in today’s tough environment, even small wins matter. Still, to spark lasting growth, Best Buy may need to augment these moves with bolder bets in services and subscriptions.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss the unofficial list of the most interesting retailers for the month of August. Each month, Arielle Feger, Becky Schilling, and Emmy Liederman (aka The Committee) put together a very unofficial list of the top eight retailers they're watching based on which are making the most interesting moves: Who's launching new initiatives? Which partnerships are moving the needle? Which standout marketing campaigns are being created? In this month's episode, Committee members Arielle Feger and Emmy Liederman will defend their list against Principal Analyst, Sky Canaves and Senior Analyst, Blake Droesch, who will dispute the power rankings by attempting to move retailers up, down, on, or off the list.
The news: Google Cloud is creating its own blockchain, named Google Cloud Universal Ledger (GCUL), for payments and financial products. Our first take: The post-GENIUS Act environment has major institutions scrambling to get a first-mover advantage on stablecoins. Google likely is betting that it’s better positioned to offer clients and financial institutions than Stripe’s Tempo or Circle’s Arc because its blockchain service simplifies integration for multiple currencies and assets, stabilizes fees, and is designed for safety—as a private and permissioned system, it benefits from Google’s tech security stack.
The news: Fanatics launched Fanatics Advertising, a division that will oversee the company’s ad and brand partnership strategy across its commerce, collectibles, gaming, and events businesses. Our take: Fanatics is taking its swing at the fast-growing commerce media space. Commerce media represented 18.0% of US digital ad spending last year, and we expect its share to keep climbing—hitting nearly $1 of every $5 spent on digital ads (19.7%) this year and close to $1 in $4 (24.8%) by 2029, the end of our forecast period. Sitting at the crossroads of sports fandom—merchandise, collectibles, betting, and live events—Fanatics has a brand position few, if any, rivals can match. If it executes well, Fanatics Advertising could be a home run by turning its unmatched access to fans into an equally powerful ad play.
A Precise TV study revealed key habits for younger Gen Z consumers ages 13 to 17—emphasizing that short-form and digital video are leading the way. YouTube Shorts and TikTok ads were major drivers of purchase decisions: 51% of Gen Z boys and 43% of girls made a purchase after watching YouTube Shorts ads, while 44% of boys and 41% of girls purchased after watching a TikTok ad. Gen Z’s digital buying power will only grow, and targeting younger Gen Z consumers will position brands for long-term growth—provided the right strategies are implemented.
The situation: Williams-Sonoma is raising prices on select items after its incremental tariff rate doubled since May—from 14% to 28%—due to higher duties on goods from China, India, and Vietnam. More pressure may be ahead after President Donald Trump recently signaled plans to increase tariffs on furniture imports. Our take: Despite operating in the sluggish furniture and home furnishings category—which we project will grow just 0.4% this year—Williams-Sonoma is well-positioned to weather macroeconomic headwinds. Anchored by a diverse brand portfolio that resonates with affluent consumers across life stages, its multipronged strategy—price increases, cost discipline, supply chain improvements, and AI-driven efficiencies—not only will offset tariff pressures but also lay a durable foundation for sustained growth and market share expansion.
Cracker Barrel has reversed a logo redesign just days after removing its “Old Timer” figure, Uncle Herschel, following backlash from customers, commentators, and investors. Criticism spiked when former President Donald Trump called the redesign a costly mistake but also “a billion dollars’ worth of free publicity.” Hours later, the company confirmed Herschel would remain the face of the chain. The reversal coincided with a 7% stock drop, underscoring how customer sentiment quickly impacts financials. Analysts note that tradition and heritage are powerful brand signals—removing them can sever ties with loyal customers while raising doubts about purpose and direction.
Abercrombie & Fitch reported record revenues in Q2 as soaring demand among Gen Z teens for Hollister offset weakness at its namesake brand. Abercrombie is navigating the current environment as well as any retailer—especially one with considerable tariff exposure—could. While minimizing tariff costs remains a key priority, Abercrombie’s sharp focus on the fundamentals—delivering products that people want—will help guide it through uncertainty.
Kohl’s reported a better-than-expected Q2 profit as it controlled expenses and reintroduced phased-out product assortments, hinting at early signs of traction despite sales declines. The retailer is taking steps to stabilize, but it faces a mammoth challenge to move sales to growth—not just lessen the declines. As shoppers scrutinize every dollar they spend, Kohl’s needs to show it can deliver the right products at the right price—and find ways to stand out in an increasingly crowded field by bolstering loyalty perks, leaning more on personalized offerings to consumers, and communicating clearly what it wants to be known for. That won’t be easy for a retailer whose core shoppers remain heavily reliant on coupons and discounts.
Lego continues to outperform the toy industry by delivering products that appeal to both children and adults while expanding brand awareness in Asia. While we expect US toy and hobby sales to grow just 2.0% this year, Lego is increasingly in a league of its own. The company’s all-ages appeal, IP partnerships, and brick-and-mortar strategy are working in tandem to drive sales and encourage lasting loyalty.
The news: Online retail traffic from generative AI (genAI) sources is exploding, highlighting how AI tools are intercepting and guiding the product search journey. GenAI traffic to US retail sites grew 4,700% YoY in July, per Adobe Digital Insights. 38% of US consumers have used genAI for shopping, and another 52% plan to do so this year. Our take: Brands need to market to both machines and people to avoid being excluded from AI results. Success will involve understanding how models interpret product data and reviews and aligning messaging with the signals AI uses to index and recommend products.
While AI advancements have sparked litigation between publishers and tech giants—The New York Times’ lawsuit against OpenAI for copyright infringement being the most prominent—some publishers are embracing AI partnerships as an essential revenue driver amid shaky search traffic.
The news: Klarna is now available in-store at over 400 Walmart Canada locations. Canadian Walmart shoppers can scan a QR code at assisted lane checkouts to choose between Pay in Full or Pay in 4. Only purchases over CAD 50 will be eligible for Klarna’s financing. Our take: Klarna’s partnerships with Walmart in the US and Canada are major coups for the BNPL player. Affirm’s dominance stateside is driven by its strategic partnerships and strong Affirm card adoption. Klarna should continue staking out new tie-ups with major retailers and boost Klarna card use to secure a stronger presence in Canada.
Walmart will offer next-day delivery in select cities for some marketplace orders, the company said. The service will be available to customers in New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta, and Houston, with plans to eventually expand to more areas. t’s no accident that Walmart is making a play for urban customers at the same time that Amazon is going after rural households. Both retailers see opportunities to win over the other’s core customer base by offering a compelling combination of convenience and low prices.
Google is enhancing its retail ad offerings with loyalty-driven personalization tools aimed at retention. New features include personalized pricing and shipping perks for loyalty members, a “loyalty mode” in Google Ads’ retention goal to optimize for high-lifetime-value customers, and personalized annotations in Performance Max campaigns. Sephora, an early adopter, reported a 20% lift in click-through rates from loyalty-focused annotations. The launch comes as loyalty ranks high on shoppers’ holiday priorities and as CMOs lean on loyalty programs to bolster first-party data. With Amazon pulling away from Google, the updates position Ads as a retention engine in the retail fight.
The news: Crypto exchange Gemini launched an XRP edition of the Gemini credit card in collaboration with Ripple, per a press release. Cardholders will receive XRP as a reward for everyday spend. Our take: We forecast the amount of US crypto payment users remains low, at 1.3% of the population. However, the share of people who use crypto at all is more than seven times as large—suggesting Gemini’s new card could attract a larger base than cards designed around using crypto at checkout.
The Q2 performances of Amazon, Walmart, and Target illustrate the retailers’ diverging fortunes as shoppers reassess their spending priorities. While uncertainty is funneling more dollars toward Amazon and Walmart, customers are steering clear of Target—due both to a lackluster assortment and frustration over its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) flip-flopping. Walmart and Amazon are pulling ahead as their relentless focus on value—in the form of speed, selection, and convenience—make them the first stop for shoppers buying everything from essentials like groceries to discretionary items like beauty and apparel. That leaves Target’s new CEO, Michael Fiddelke, with the unenviable task of having to turn the retailer around just as tariffs threaten its bottom line and undermine its core discretionary business.