The news: Amazon reported strong Q2 results for its advertising business, with advertising revenues reaching $15.6 billion—up a significant 23% YoY. Net sales increased 13% YoY to $167.7 billion, well above Q2 guidance that warned of “tariffs and trade policies” and “recessionary fears.” Our take: Moving forward, Amazon will need to innovate what it’s already offering by pioneering a retail media strategy that extends Amazon’s data and ad tech beyond its own storefront, AI-driven tools that simplify creative production and optimization at scale while prioritizing privacy, and more immersive and shoppable ad formats in its streaming offering.
Home Depot is sharpening its pitch to non-endemic advertisers with a new partnership with Yahoo DSP. Non-endemic advertising could be a lucrative opportunity for RMNs—but it comes with its own set of challenges. Retailers have to clearly articulate what advantages they offer compared with the rest of the (very crowded) field, while measuring the impact of non-incremental ads is more difficult given the absence of closed-loop attribution. Companies should also follow Home Depot’s lead in being strategic about the types of non-endemic advertisers they allow onto their platform. While the temptation might be to cast as wide a net as possible, limiting ad buys to brands in complementary categories will maximize effectiveness and minimize the confusion for shoppers.
The trend: Protein is having a moment. Some 44% of US consumers—and 51% of Gen Z and millennials—are actively trying to boost their intake, turning protein into a must-have across categories. Our take: Protein-rich, better-for-you products are proving to be a rare bright spot amid a challenging consumer landscape. Shoppers—especially younger, health-conscious ones—are still willing to pay a premium when the nutritional value feels worth it. For CPG brands and foodservice chains, protein is a high-impact lever to drive growth and relevance. But sustaining that momentum requires more than a nutrition label. If the taste, format, or experience falls flat or feels like a gimmick, consumers won’t hesitate to walk away.
The news: YouTube’s lead in connected TV (CTV) advertising faces a real threat as Amazon Prime Video gains momentum. But that standing might be short-lived—Amazon’s Prime Video is on track to surpass YouTube as the top CTV advertising platform by 2027, per Morgan Stanley as cited by Business Insider. Our take: Marketers should expect CTV ad dollars to shift toward Amazon’s ecosystem by 2027. Early investment in Amazon’s premium, shoppable ads can secure top inventory and sharpen targeting as streaming evolves.
The news: Macy’s aims to boost in-store traffic this back-to-school season by expanding its assortment—most notably by adding select Abercrombie Kids items to its lineup. The move comes at a challenging moment, as we expect back-to-school sales to slow for the second straight year. Our take: Back-to-school is a perfect proving ground for Macy’s portfolio revamp. Parents and teens are already in “new‑gear” mode, so adding Abercrombie Kids now lets Macy’s showcase a fresher, youth‑centric mix when foot traffic naturally peaks. Pairing the drop with proven draws like Nike and Jordan turns a seasonal rush into a live test of Macy’s revamped merchandising—and gives shoppers a clear reason to visit the store before classes start.
Airbnb may launch a loyalty program at some point, chief business officer Dave Stephenson told Bloomberg. The company has all the ingredients “that would make a compelling loyalty program,” he said—especially following the launch of Airbnb’s services and experiences booking platform. While it’s hardly surprising that Airbnb, a company that has thoroughly disrupted the travel industry, would be reluctant to copy its competitors’ approach to loyalty, there is something to be said for simplicity. What worked for Amazon may not translate as well to Airbnb, given the number of competing platforms that offer similar services—and the fact that most of what it offers is highly discretionary.
The number of retail media networks (RMNs) worldwide offering competitive conquesting (the ability to target campaigns to competitors’ shoppers) has risen from 10 in Q2 2024 to 15 in Q2 2025, a 50% increase, according to data from Mars United Commerce.
As parents prepare their kids for the new school year, they’re tightening budgets, reusing last year’s supplies, and looking for ways to efficiently check off their lists.
Etsy and eBay see opportunity to gain share as tariffs burden their competitors and consumers adjust their spending habits. Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from renewed interest in resale as tariffs make buying new more expensive for shoppers. The two platforms also now face less competition from Shein, Temu, and Amazon in online ad auctions—allowing them to be more efficient with marketing spend and reach more potential customers. While neither eBay nor Etsy is fully immune from the effects of tariffs—and their potential drag on the economy and consumer confidence—they are less exposed than most other retailers.
The news: Mastercard and Visa reported strong revenue growth in their most recent quarters. Visa’s net revenues rose 14% YoY in its fiscal year Q3 (ended June 30, 2025). Mastercard’s net revenues for the period rose 17% YoY. Our take: Both Visa and Mastercard understand that they need to innovate to keep their infrastructure competitive in light of the explosion of alternative payment rails—most recently stablecoin initiatives, made possible by the recent passage of the Genius Act.
The news: PayPal posted net revenue growth of 5% YoY at $8.3 billion due to strong performances of Venmo, its debit card, and Braintree, per its earnings report. Our take: PayPal is leaning into its branded experience and tech innovations to power its way through 2025.
The news: JPMorgan Chase is reportedly in late-stage talks to take over the Apple Card portfolio from Goldman Sachs, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Apple needs a stable financial partner after a rough road with Goldman Sachs’ regulatory scrutiny and failed experiment with consumer banking.
Amazon shrugged off tariff concerns in its Q2 earnings report, after reporting growth ahead of expectations. But the retailer’s Q3 forecast was murky, suggesting that while consumer demand remains resilient, uncertainty from tariffs and trade policy—along with extensive investments in AI—could weigh heavily on its bottom line. Amazon’s strong quarter and Q3 sales guidance help dispel some fears about the health of the consumer. But its decision to once again offer an unusually broad profit range for the next quarter shows considerable uncertainty about the impact the Trump administration’s trade policies will have on retailers’ costs.
The trend: Inflation ticked higher in June as the impact of tariffs began to reach consumers. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.6% YoY, slightly above the 2.5% analysts expected and up from 2.4% in May, marking the highest level since February. On a monthly basis, it climbed 0.3%, in line with forecasts. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy items, increased 2.8% YoY, ahead of the 2.7% analysts expected, and 0.3% MoM, in line with expectations. Our take: Inflation remains the top economic concern for US consumers and pressure is building. Companies ranging from Procter & Gamble and Kraft Heinz to Mattel, Stanley Black & Decker, and Walmart have all signaled plans to raise prices. With many households already tightening their budgets, even modest hikes could spur further pullbacks in spending, making an already tough retail environment even harder to navigate.
Consumer goods giants Kraft Heinz and Unilever are moving to stimulate demand in a challenging sales climate by increasing marketing spending on their most popular products. Both companies are betting on marketing to spur demand and improve brand equity in a slower-growth climate. But the question is whether stepped-up marketing will be enough to overcome rising consumer caution, particularly in categories like snacks and personal care, where purchases are more discretionary in a tariff-driven environment. Increased investments in promotions could pressure margins in coming quarters.
The news: Best Buy is testing a store-within-a-store concept with Ikea, aimed at helping customers more seamlessly integrate its appliances into Ikea-designed kitchens and laundry rooms. This marks the first time the Swedish retailer has offered services and products within another US retailer. Our take: Pairing two well-known, purpose-driven brands around a shared customer use case—home design and functionality—is a smart play. The in-person branded experience should provide value to shoppers and offer a win-win path to renewed relevance and growth for both companies.
The data: US consumer spending inched up just 1.4% YoY in Q2, per the US Commerce Department. While that’s up from the tepid 0.5% in Q1, it’s well below the 2.8% growth in spending in 2024, and the fifth-slowest rate since Q3 2021. Goods spending rose 2.2% YoY, up from 0.1% the prior quarter, while services spending increased 1.1% YoY, ahead of the 0.6% in Q1. Our take: Eliminating the de minimis exemption levels the playing field between international ecommerce sellers and domestic retailers—but could also drive up prices for consumers.
The situation: Amazon and Google, once bound by a symbiotic relationship in which Amazon funneled ad dollars into Google Search and Google indexed Amazon’s pages, are now veering toward open conflict as generative AI (genAI) blurs the lines between ecommerce, advertising, and search. Both companies are determined to own the entire journey from discovery to checkout, and that ambition is unraveling what remains of their former détente. Our take: Amazon and Google are racing to define where and how consumers discover and buy products in the genAI era. If Amazon succeeds in walling off its marketplace data and steering shoppers to its own AI interfaces, the retail landscape could splinter into walled gardens where tech giants cooperate far less. That winner‑takes‑all dynamic might suit the victors, but it risks degrading the overall consumer experience with fewer choices and less transparent pricing. At the same time, it could lead brands and retailers into a margin‑sapping race to the bottom inside whichever closed ecosystem proves most dominant.
The news: President Donald Trump signed an executive order to close the so-called de minimis trade loophole, which allows foreign packages valued under $800 to enter the US tariff-free. Effective August 29, all shipments under that threshold—regardless of origin—will be subject to duties based on value and country of origin. The White House already ended the exemption for packages from China and Hong Kong on May 2. Our take: Eliminating the de minimis exemption levels the playing field between international ecommerce sellers and domestic retailers—but could also drive up prices for consumers.
The news: Publicis Groupe has won PayPal’s global media business, building on the holding company’s winning streak and proving to rivals that its momentum in securing major accounts shows no signs of slowing. WPP Media previously handled PayPal’s media account but resigned the account in April, citing the need to “pursue other opportunities,” per Ad Age. Our take: Publicis’ win of PayPal’s global media business underscores a growing advertiser shift toward integrated partnerships, where creative, media, and retail strategies merge to unlock greater performance and monetization potential.