The news: More than one-third (38%) of parents are stressed about affording back-to-school items, per Zip’s back-to-school survey. Our take: Given the level of strain for parents, BNPL providers have an opportunity to pitch their alternative credit models to overstretched families. Targeted marketing campaigns around back-to-school season and easy opportunities to use installments in store and online through BNPL-enabled cards and partnerships can strengthen spend.
The news: Affirm’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 43% YoY to $10.4 billion, per Q4 FY 2025 earnings (ended June 30). The buy now, pay later (BNPL) company reported strong numbers across the board. Revenues soared 33% YoY to $876 million. Active consumers increased 24% YoY to 23 million. Transactions per active customer grew 19% to 5.8. The number of active merchants jumped 24% to 337,000. Our take: Affirm’s dominance in the US market is propelled by powerful Affirm Card spend—we forecast Affirm will edge out Klarna in terms of US volume by $4.7 billion. If the firm can keep growing its average ticket size, it could carve out a healthy niche in the consumer credit market: purchases that are too small to jump through the hoops of securing a personal loan but too large to pay off in one month on a credit card balance.
From Rare Beauty’s scented billboards and Walmart’s truck tours to Dick’s Sporting Goods’ in-house production studios, here’s what the eight most interesting retailers from August have been up to, as ranked on our “Behind the Numbers” podcast.
The news: McDonald’s will reintroduce Extra Value Meals on September 8. The combo meals will deliver about 15% savings compared with buying items separately. Our take: While McDonald’s delivered better-than-expected results in Q2, including 2.5% same-store sales growth, most of its gains came from higher prices. To build momentum, the brand must shift consumer perception, not just raise prices. Bringing back the Extra Value Meal is a step in that direction.
The news: Modelo Especial and Corona maker Constellation Brands cut its full-year forecast, blaming weak consumer demand in a difficult macroeconomic environment. The slowdown has been most pronounced among its core Hispanic demographic, who are cutting back on high-end beer. Our take: At the start of the year, Hispanic consumers looked like a growth engine—they accounted for one-fifth of the US population, $2.8 trillion in purchasing power, and outsize influence in categories from consumer packaged goods to food and beverage. But the Trump administration’s tariffs and mass deportations have chilled this momentum, with roughly 1 in 5 (21% of) Hispanic consumers report having felt unsafe in their local market due to their ethnicity, per The Asian American Foundation. Companies that banked heavily on Hispanic spending may now find that bet falling short.
Nearly three-quarters (73.5%) of US adults at least sometimes check prices or inventory online before visiting a store, according to a May survey from Locala and EMARKETER.
The trend: Retail layoffs have surged 249% in the first seven months of the year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas—and more cuts are likely to come as tariffs squeeze margins. Our take: Layoffs at large prominent retailers like Nike, Kroger, and Best Buy are a clear signal of what’s ahead. Staff cuts at these industry leaders suggest the sector is bracing for weaker consumer demand and persistent margin pressure. If the strongest players are retreating, weaker chains are likely to follow. These moves may prove the canary in the coal mine for a broader retail reset.
The situation: Dollar General, Amazon, and Walmart are on a collision course as each races to speed up rural ecommerce deliveries and win loyalty in a market ripe for growth. Our take: Dollar General, Amazon, and Walmart are pushing hard into rural ecommerce because the growth potential is too big to ignore. The retailers that can pair speed with convenience will be best positioned to lock in lasting loyalty.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution will publish its final print edition on December 31, 2025, before becoming a digital-only outlet on January 1, 2026. Publisher Andrew Morse said the move will allow resources to flow into newsletters, podcasts, video, and a new mobile app. The 157-year-old paper has already posted double-digit digital subscription growth and expanded statewide reach. The shift mirrors broader industry trends: nearly half of US adults never read print newspapers, while digital ad spend continues to climb. AJC’s farewell to print underscores the inevitable math: audiences and advertisers are digital, and adaptation is survival.
Historically, search engines and social platforms acted as gateways, linking to other sites for consumers to continue reading, researching, or shopping. Now, those platforms are answering queries directly within their own ecosystems, resulting in a “zero-click search.”
The findings: Financial institutions (FIs) that have enabled buy now, pay later (BNPL) for debit cards see increased card usage frequency, higher spending, and larger purchases, per recent equipfi analysis cited by The Financial Brand. Why this matters for FIs: The BNPL explosion is over, as user growth decelerates and the industry reaches maturation. But FIs can still find value in BNPL. By integrating BNPL directly into existing debit card programs, banks stand to increase card usage, strengthen customer loyalty, and boost revenues. This strategy also turns debit cards, a very traditional banking product, into something that can better meet consumer needs. Today’s banking customers crave flexibility—and it’s especially important to Gen Zers.
The news: 53% of US consumers cited a lack of human empathy and understanding as a concern with using Gen AI-powered customer service tools, per a survey conducted by American Express. Our take: GenAI will be an engine for automizing easy wins, like personalized customer service experiences or customized rewards. However, the tool needs to be selectively deployed for best results. Consumers also still desire access to live representatives for human touches that genAI cannot generate. Issuers who can provide a blend of both in their customer service experiences stand to win the approval of all age brackets across their cardholding base.
The news: Buy now, pay later (BNPL) firms are exhorting the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) not to write new rules about how installment loan histories would affect federal home loan eligibility. Our take: BNPL providers are divided on whether furnishing their loan information supports or hurts their espoused mission for financial inclusion and helping consumers access credit. Affirm appeared the odd one out by offering more transparency about its consumers’ financial health. However, if HUD moves ahead with new loan eligibility rules, its customers could end up the better for it, while reporting naysayers Klarna and Afterpay will have to scramble to set up their customers for success
The US consumer is in good shape, according to the CEOs of Dick’s Sporting Goods and Urban Outfitters—despite a recent dip in confidence and tariff fears. Urban Outfitters’ and Dick’s Sporting Goods’ confidence in the health of the consumer shows that despite the strain of tariffs and uncertainty, shoppers remain willing to spend on products that they feel are worth the investment.
Shoppers’ search for value is steering them to budget-friendly retailers—off-price chains, dollar stores, and other discounters—that benefited from a surge in sales and traffic in Q2. Value is top-of-mind for today’s consumer, regardless of income level. That’s good news for discounters and dollar stores, which are ideally placed to benefit from consumers’ financial anxieties. However, risks such as renewed tariffs or dips in consumer confidence mean retailers need to carefully manage their assortments and pricing.
The backdrop: The EU’s two largest economies face different but converging risks. Germany’s economy contracted 0.3% in Q2—worse than the preliminary -0.1% estimate—as manufacturing slumped after a temporary surge in US orders aimed at dodging tariffs, per Destatis. French Prime Minister François Bayrou will seek a vote of confidence in the National Assembly on September 8, a move likely to topple the government and inject fresh uncertainty into an economy heavily reliant on consumer spending. A political crisis could even push France into recession, Carrefour SA CEO Alexandre Bompard warned, per Bloomberg. Our take: While German households are pulling back amid economic gloom, French consumers have so far kept growth afloat. But if political turmoil erodes confidence, the two largest markets could synchronize into a broader slowdown. That would leave retailers with limited room to offset weakness, forcing many to lean on discounting, cost control measures, and/or value-driven formats to sustain sales.
The situation: Best Buy’s comparable sales rose 1.6% in Q2, its fastest pace in three years, driven by gains in gaming, computing, and mobile phones. A major boost came from the high-profile launch of Nintendo Switch 2, which pushed June sales up nearly 10%—the retailer’s best month since March 2021, per Bloomberg Second Measure, which tracks US debit and credit transactions. Our take: Best Buy is experimenting to reignite growth. Earlier this month it rolled out a third-party marketplace to broaden its assortment and began testing a store-within-a-store partnership with Ikea, positioning its appliances inside Ikea kitchens and laundry rooms. While neither move is likely to be a game-changer, in today’s tough environment, even small wins matter. Still, to spark lasting growth, Best Buy may need to augment these moves with bolder bets in services and subscriptions.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss the unofficial list of the most interesting retailers for the month of August. Each month, Arielle Feger, Becky Schilling, and Emmy Liederman (aka The Committee) put together a very unofficial list of the top eight retailers they're watching based on which are making the most interesting moves: Who's launching new initiatives? Which partnerships are moving the needle? Which standout marketing campaigns are being created? In this month's episode, Committee members Arielle Feger and Emmy Liederman will defend their list against Principal Analyst, Sky Canaves and Senior Analyst, Blake Droesch, who will dispute the power rankings by attempting to move retailers up, down, on, or off the list.
The news: Google Cloud is creating its own blockchain, named Google Cloud Universal Ledger (GCUL), for payments and financial products. Our first take: The post-GENIUS Act environment has major institutions scrambling to get a first-mover advantage on stablecoins. Google likely is betting that it’s better positioned to offer clients and financial institutions than Stripe’s Tempo or Circle’s Arc because its blockchain service simplifies integration for multiple currencies and assets, stabilizes fees, and is designed for safety—as a private and permissioned system, it benefits from Google’s tech security stack.