The opportunity: Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom are gaining ground while some of their luxury rivals stumble. Our take: Execution matters—especially in a luxury market where consumers are increasingly anxious about the economy. These shoppers have little tolerance for poor experiences, operational missteps, or inventory gaps. Retailers that deliver consistency, trust, and seamless service will be best positioned to retain loyalty and capture share.
The commerce media space is growing fast, and as it gets more crowded, it’s becoming harder to keep up with the retail media giants. But by teaming up, smaller players can more easily scale their networks to achieve the reach to stay competitive.
The news: Wegmans added Instacart’s Caper Carts—AI-powered smart carts—to a store in Syracuse, New York. Our take: Wegmans has staked its brand on exceptional customer service.
The news: Changes to Amex’s and Chase’s credit card welcome offers do away with guaranteed points for new cardholders, per CNET. Our take: Amex and Chase are trying to maximize their marketing appeal while also limiting their rewards costs.
The news: Credit card delinquencies have sunk to their lowest levels in two years, within striking distance of pre-pandemic levels, per data from VantageScore’s Credit Gauge. Our take: Fewer issuers are tightening their credit card lending standards, but those looking to gain sign ups face troubled waters—consumer demand for credit cards fell in April by the most since the early days of the pandemic, per the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Survey.
The situation: A perfect storm of consumer pullbacks, rising prices from new tariffs, and the suspension of the de minimis tax exemption will drag US ecommerce sales growth this year to its weakest pace since the Great Recession in 2009. We expect US online sales to grow just 5.0% this year in our moderate tariff scenario, which reflects the current policy landscape. That’s a 3-percentage-point drop from last year. Looking ahead: We expect ecommerce growth to experience a modest rebound to 5.3% growth in 2026. But more headwinds are on the horizon. The tax-and-spending package known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will close the de minimis loophole that lets most packages under $800 enter duty-free from countries outside China and Hong Kong. While that will eliminate the possibility of some workarounds, it could also reshape the economics of cross-border ecommerce—and place even more strain on platforms, suppliers, and price-sensitive consumers alike.
The trend: Consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands and other companies are expanding their size offerings to stay relevant with increasingly cost-conscious shoppers, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Offering more packaging options is a smart way for CPG brands to stay competitive in a value-focused environment. Offering more pack sizes is a smart move given consumers’ razor-sharp focus on value. But execution matters. If consumers perceive downsized offerings as shrinkflation rather than value, the strategy could backfire. Brands that use size variety to attract new shoppers, price with precision, and win at the shelf will be best positioned to turn flexibility into both loyalty and margin.
The news: Consumers are increasingly taking brands’ values into account when they shop, according to a survey by the Kearney Consumer Institute. Our take: Brands can take solace in knowing that while consumers are increasingly using their spending to make a political statement, product quality, pricing, and reliability still matter. Cost concerns can outweigh dissatisfaction with retailers’ policies. But companies that stay true to their values have the opportunity to win lasting loyalty.
The news: Anime is gaining popularity across the globe, per a recent Dentsu report highlighting anime viewership trends, proving that marketers who haven’t yet paid attention to the medium need to tap in. 50% of Gen Z watches anime weekly, with 14% watching daily. Millennials also tune in frequently, with nearly half (48%) watching daily or weekly. Our take: Savvy marketers will pay attention to anime as a prime chance to reach the demographics driving the future—but going beyond a surface-level understanding of the medium will determine which marketers succeed and which fall behind.
The news: Amazon is shutting down its standalone free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) platform Freevee in August. All Freevee content—including original series and live TV—will migrate to Prime Video. Advertisers take heed: As streaming giants consolidate, ad buyers might see fewer platforms but more fragmented audiences. This centralization of inventory boosts scale but narrows options for niche targeting. Our take: Amazon and its rivals are bundling content into fewer apps to boost ad revenue and reduce churn. But for advertisers, viewer behavior is splintering as audiences jump between services each month, chasing new shows, deals, and lower costs.
The insight: Food delivery has become an ingrained habit, with more consumers turning to the service multiple times per day. Our take: With more restaurant spending being funneled through platforms like DoorDash and Uber Eats, operators are having to rethink their acquisition strategy. Companies previously reluctant to sign on to their marketplaces—like Olive Garden and Domino’s—are changing their tune as it becomes clear that consumers’ affinity for delivery is not a pandemic blip. At the same time, DoorDash and its competitors are aiming higher. For them, food delivery is merely the first stepping stone toward becoming a one-stop shop for all of consumers’ needs, from restaurant meals to groceries to pet and home improvement supplies. That’s an ambitious goal, and one that is not yet reflected in shoppers’ behavior—but that could change as people become more accustomed to spending time on delivery apps.
US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May EMARKETER forecast.
The news: The electric vehicle industry hit a rough patch in Q2, with sales slowing across the board—especially for companies focused solely on EVs. Our take: If the so-called Big Beautiful Bill passes—as many expect—and eliminates the EV tax credit, the industry could find itself in a downturn it can’t easily steer out of. Without incentives to offset higher upfront costs, EV adoption may slow even further, leaving automakers stuck with inventory and uncertain demand.
The trend: Scarcity still sells. Even as consumers become more budget-conscious, limited releases continue to spark outsize demand and buzz. Our take: Consumers are drawn to the new, the novel, and the exclusive. That’s why limited releases continue to deliver results. They create urgency and give brands a way to protect margins—even at a time when many shoppers are rethinking their overall spending.
The news: Consumers increasingly trust shopping suggestions from AI, even more than product suggestions from content creators, positioning the technology as a trusted and personalized guide rather than a back-end tool. 27% of US consumers trust AI shopping recommendations, per Walmart’s Retail Rewired Report, compared with 24% who trust suggestions from social media influencers. Our take: AI retail tools are most likely to succeed if they offer both speed and a sense of user control. Retailers should let users set spending caps and offer options to pause or customize recommendations to help AI agents feel more like a trusted assistant than a pushy salesperson.
Almost half of Gen Zers (46%) and Baby Boomers (45%) would switch to less expensive brands or product alternatives if there are price increases related to tariffs, according to March data from Collage Group.
The news: Nearly half of US and UK consumers admit to abusing retailers’ returns policies in the past 12 months, according to a survey conducted by The Harris Poll. Our take: Retailers face a Catch-22 when it comes to returns. Being too generous opens the door for fraud and can result in retailers being overburdened by reverse logistics costs. But being too restrictive can deter shoppers from opening their wallets.
The trend: Walmart has begun rolling out “Summer Frights” Halloween displays in about 1,000 stores across the US, featuring quirky early-season items like watermelon jack-o’-lanterns and ghost plushies in Hawaiian shirts. Our take: Walmart is smart to embrace offbeat retail moments like Summerween. While consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending, they continue to splurge on seasonal celebrations like Halloween and the holidays. Halloween alone has become a major retail event, with spending hitting $11.6 billion last year—a 31.8% increase from pre-pandemic 2019. Summerween pulls some of that spending forward and gives budget-conscious shoppers a playful reason to open their wallets—even if they’re feeling spooked by the economy.
The news: Verizon customers can now pay-by-bank through Trustly in Verizon’s brick-and-mortar stores. Our take: As long as the cost of accepting credit cards remains sizable, merchants who have the means to dodge fees will find ways to make pay-by-bank accessible.