The news: Walmart boosted its full-year earnings and sales outlook, even as tariffs weigh on its costs.
- Adjusted earnings per share were 68 cents, up 1.5% YoY, but short of the 74 cents analysts expected.
- Revenues of $177.40 billion, up 4.8% YoY, ahead of the $176.16 billion.
- Walmart US comparable sales, excluding fuel, rose 4.6%, ahead of the 4.05% expected, thanks to strong growth in the grocery and health and wellness categories.
- Sam’s Club comparable sales, excluding fuel, increased 5.9%, ahead of the 5.29% expected.
The company now expects net sales to rise 3.75% to 4.75% for the fiscal year, up from its previous expectations of 3% to 4%. It raised its adjusted earnings per share outlook slightly to $2.52 to $2.62, up from the prior range of $2.50 to $2.60.
Our first take: Walmart continues to prove its resilience in a shaky macro environment by leaning on its three biggest levers: value, convenience, and groceries.
Walmart+ is at the center of its ecommerce push. Membership, which we estimate at 34.7 million users, fueled US ecommerce sales growth of 26% YoY during the quarter. Members shop more often, spend more, and are drawn in by Walmart’s dominant grocery business, which is the largest in the US.
Unlike Amazon, Walmart can leverage both stores and supply chain scale. About half of US online deliveries were fulfilled by stores this quarter, with a third arriving in three hours or less, underscoring Walmart’s growing edge in speed.
That approach is helping Walmart gain share across income groups, appealing not just to value seekers but also to upper-income households trading down on groceries. Its combination of scale, value, and convenience keeps it a step ahead of peers, even as tariffs weigh on its margins.
Amid a challenging holiday season in which we expect sales to rise just 1.2% this year, Walmart’s grocery-led traffic and Walmart+ ecosystem give it a stronger runway than most competitors to capture cautious consumer spending in Q4.
This is our immediate perspective. We’re actively developing this story throughout the day with more research and data from the EMARKETER database. Our in-depth analysis will be included in our client-only Briefings. Non-clients can click here to get a demo of our full platform and coverage.
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