Costco has filed suit against the Trump administration to secure the right to a full refund of the IEEPA tariffs it paid this year, tying its claim to a pending Supreme Court ruling on whether Trump had authority to impose the duties. The company also seeks to pause tariff collection as the case unfolds, citing a December 15 liquidation deadline that could make the payments unrecoverable. With businesses stuck in prolonged uncertainty and others filing similar protective suits, Costco is taking a pragmatic, defensive step to shield itself from a costly legal limbo.
Shein and Temu are under intensifying global scrutiny as US, European, and Chinese authorities tighten oversight of Chinese-affiliated ecommerce platforms. Texas is investigating Shein over forced labor and safety concerns, while Sen. Tom Cotton is urging a federal probe into IP theft at both companies. The pressure extends abroad, with Shein’s French marketplace suspended and China demanding sales data to combat tax evasion. With de minimis advantages eroding and consumer trust wavering, these platforms must strengthen marketplace quality and local partnerships to remain competitive amid rising regulatory risk.
This year’s standout merch campaigns show why branded products are having a moment, not as giveaways, but as attention engines. From pop culture sparks to sustainability and event-driven personalization, the examples demonstrate what makes merch work when digital noise is at its loudest.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) will enable Visa Intelligence in its marketplace, bringing agentic commerce capabilities to AWS’s merchant list, per a press release. However, US consumers still have trepidation about letting bots complete purchases on their behalf—almost 70% of US adults are uninterested in testing out AI shoppers, per an EMARKETER and Civic Science survey. Major payment players hoping to benefit from agentic-driven volume need to develop incentives or roll out education materials to assure consumers that bot-driven shopping is safe and effective.
Klarna rolled out tap to pay on iPhones and Androids across 14 European markets, expanding its reach for in-store purchases, per a press release. Rolling out tap to pay in Europe shows the Klarna’s ambition to secure seamless ways to check out for its users. With Klarna and Affirm already available in-store through Apple Pay in the US, BNPL providers have to weigh how much in-app tap to pay rollouts could gain traction among US consumers who are already accustomed to Apple Wallet—and what incentives could entice them to leave the Apple ecosystem.
Amazon is testing ultra-fast delivery for fresh groceries and other household essentials in some areas of Seattle and Philadelphia. The service, called Amazon Now, allows shoppers in eligible neighborhoods to receive thousands of items in 30 minutes or less. While Amazon continues to invest in its brick-and-mortar grocery business, enhancing its ecommerce initiatives appears to be taking precedence. Speeding up delivery could help Amazon extend its foothold in grocery while keeping shoppers wedded to its platform, but our forecast expects its share of digital grocery sales to dip as Walmart, pure-play grocers, and intermediary delivery platforms grow their piece of the pie.
Walmart finalized its Vizio acquisition one year ago, a move that clearly telegraphed its advertising ambitions and positioned it to be a dominant retail media player. Vizio considerably strengthens Walmart’s pitch to advertisers by giving it more opportunities to get in front of engaged audiences and providing more data for better targeting and measurement. Walmart’s newfound CTV capabilities also help establish the retailer as a full-funnel ad solution, increasing its appeal to both endemic and nonendemic brands.
In a special Thanksgiving-themed episode of “Behind the Numbers,” we ranked the retail and brand initiatives we’re thankful for this season, from viral merchandise to purpose-driven campaigns. "We're looking at those strategies, launches, and collabs that we're genuinely grateful for, the moves that made us smile, surprised us, or gave us hope for where retail is headed," said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian.
As commerce media buyers face more choices, Dollar General is pitching its large store footprint as an opportunity to reach shoppers in rural and underserved markets, particularly with its retail media offering, DG Media Network.
Shoppers spent over $75 million on live shopping platform Whatnot during Black Friday, the company told EMARKETER. That’s three times last year’s total, underscoring the medium’s swift ascendance and pointing to rising consumer comfort with the format. Livestream commerce’s ability to blur the lines between shopping and entertainment is helping to drive adoption across generations. We expect US livestream ecommerce sales to rise by nearly 50% this year to $14.64 billion, while the number of buyers will jump by 21.5%. Platforms, retailers, and brands that lean into the entertainment and educational aspects of live shopping will be best equipped to capture—and keep—shoppers’ attention.
Reports of Gen Z’s sluggish holiday spending may be exaggerated. Brands like Edikted, Kendra Scott, and Bath & Body Works—favorites of the cohort—saw heavier foot traffic during Black Friday, per Bloomberg. The cohort will account for a greater share of Cyber Five spending this year—18%—while all other generations will see their share decline, per Deloitte. With the pressures on Gen Z spending set to persist beyond the holiday season, brands and retailers will have to work hard to make their case to the increasingly cash-strapped cohort.
A worsening macro environment is pushing major retailers and restaurants to close locations as rising costs and shifting consumer habits erode profitability, prompting cuts from Yankee Candle, Carter’s, American Signature, and Wendy’s. Industry data shows elevated vacancy rates and slower net absorption ahead, though new construction remains limited, helping support occupancy. While bankruptcy-driven closures have recently eased, the sector still faces meaningful pressure. Even so, we expect physical retail sales to grow 2.8% next year, offering a stabilizing force that should help sustain space demand despite continued consolidation.
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) volume hit new highs over the first half of the holiday season, including $747.5 million in online spending on Black Friday alone, an 8.9% YoY increase. Klarna reported Black Friday sales boosted its November volume 45% YoY, and PayPal said pre-Black Friday sales promotions lifted its BNPL volume by 23% YoY. The growth of BNPL volume signals alternate credit’s rising place in US consumer spending. The trend reflects both consumers’ financial strain and their continued willingness to spend, even if it means restructuring how they pay.
Households with GLP-1 users could account for 35% of food and beverage sales by 2030, up from 23% today, per Circana. Rising GLP-1 usage is reshaping grocery spending, with profound implications for foodmakers and grocers. As GLP-1s grow more accessible—thanks to microdosing, efforts to make the drugs more affordable, and the pending release of a weight-loss pill—their impact will be more deeply felt beyond food to sectors including apparel, wellness, beauty, and restaurants.
Consumers are turning toward social media and AI tools to guide their holiday shopping journeys, pulling influence away from traditional search and retail sites. Fifty-seven percent of US consumers plan to use social media for holiday shopping research and 39% plan to use AI for that task. Discovery is happening before consumers know what they want—inside social feeds and AI chats. To capture social shoppers, brands should diversify spend away from saturated platforms like Instagram and experiment with others, and invest in content partnerships that are visible in platform algorithms and increase user trust.
AI is playing a notable role in holiday shopping this year as consumers express comfort with AI-supported gifting and receiving. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of US adults would consider using genAI for holiday shopping this year, up from 11% last year, per HUMAN Security’s SantaGPT report. With AI becoming a trusted partner for stressful gift-buying moments like the holidays, marketers have the opportunity to frame AI features—including smart gift finders or on-site AI-powered shopping guides—as stress-reducing tools to streamline the shopping journey.
Generative AI is rapidly transforming how travelers plan and book trips, with usage climbing from 8% in 2023 to 24% this year and projected to reach 65% by next year. As tools like Google’s AI Mode and OpenAI’s Instant Checkout streamline itinerary building and booking, they introduce new price pressures for major travel platforms while consumers increasingly book directly with airlines, hotels, and rental companies. With many travelers still forming habits around AI, we believe travel brands have a prime opportunity to strengthen loyalty by integrating with leading platforms and offering seamless rewards across both direct and AI-assisted bookings.
Black Friday 2025 sales outperformed expectations as consumers, motivated by steep discounts, drove 4.1% retail growth and a 10.4% jump in ecommerce despite ongoing inflation pressures. Shoppers responded strongly to major deals across toys, electronics, apparel, and TVs, even as overall enthusiasm for the day slipped and higher prices weighed on order volumes. Mobile dominated online activity, BNPL usage grew, and genAI-powered shopping surged, boosting conversion rates for retailers using the technology. The results suggest consumers are cautious yet still willing to spend selectively, signaling a steadier holiday season than anticipated.
Retailers aren’t waiting for Black Friday to kick off their holiday campaigns. Since October 1, linear TV holiday ad spend reached $475.1 million, up 13.2% YoY, according to iSpot. Weekly spending has also climbed steadily, indicating brands are frontloading their budgets to capture demand across all of Q4.
US Bank offered cardholders exclusive discounts during its “Bonus Days,” per press release. Rewards include double cash back, double rewards at certain retailers, 10% off gift card purchases, and select discounts on merchandise, all activated and available through US Bank’s shopping portals and app. Slowly shifting consumers’ attention into banking and payment apps can open major new revenue streams for issuers. However, as these initiatives are piloted, issuers can’t lose consumers’ trust with their data.