61% of Gen Z shoppers used AI tools to help with a purchase in the last year, according to a September 2025 survey from PayPal.
This year’s Cyber Five brought in record sales, but it’s still unclear how consumer spending will unfold through the rest of the holiday season and into the new year. Shoppers are moving in different directions based on their financial stability, and many are starting their holiday buying weeks earlier. Coming out of the gate with strong value and consistent messaging is paying off early, but brands must keep that energy going as the season stretches and shifts.
Amazon remains in negotiations to extend its USPS partnership but is reassessing its delivery strategy after learning the Postal Service may hold a reverse auction that would require major shippers to bid for facility access. The unexpected shift injects uncertainty into Amazon’s network at a time when it is rapidly expanding Amazon Logistics and investing heavily in rural delivery. Because Amazon accounts for a sizable share of USPS revenue, a split would significantly strain the agency and could accelerate Amazon’s rise as a competing carrier, reshaping how retailers meet growing consumer expectations for fast, reliable delivery.
Dollar and discount retailers are gaining share as low prices draw more middle- and high-income shoppers. Dollar Tree added 3 million households to its customer count in Q3, most earning over $100,000, while Dollar General saw higher-income customer growth and broader market-share gains. Five Below’s strong Q3 comps reflected new shoppers and bigger baskets. All three raised full-year outlooks. But much of their growth stems from higher prices, not traffic, and core low-income shoppers remain strained. To sustain momentum, retailers must improve store experience and appearance, ensure pricing accuracy, and invest in convenience through delivery partnerships.
Klarna launched its premium membership model in the US, per press release. Klarna has been trying to compete with premium credit card rewards as a buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider, but the cash-back rates for both tiers are paltry compared with credit cards, which often offer 2% cash back for all purchases with no annual fee. BNPL rivals should make using installment loans for big-ticket items—a key growth area for providers—as easy as possible, like by offering 0% interest holidays, instead of promoting toothless rewards structures.
Bilt partnered with United Airlines, offering 2X miles to customers who use their United co-brand card to pay their rent through Bilt’s platform. Bilt is trying to extend travel offers to members, but clumsy economics may get things off to a slow start. While Bilt stands to earn valuable margins through third-party card payments, the cost-ineffective nature of using this promotion will likely yield low returns. Competitors like the Made Card could trial a more straightforward travel rewards program centered on their own card.
US employers have announced over 1.1 million job cuts this year, the most since 2020 and a 54% increase YoY, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The report, alongside similarly soft numbers from ADP, is unlikely to stem the decline in US consumer confidence. While the end of the government shutdown eased some anxieties, households remain concerned about the weakening labor market and rising inflation. These concerns could weigh on holiday spending by pushing shoppers to reduce their budgets and prioritize essentials.
Kroger lowered the top end of its full-year sales outlook as rising price sensitivity among lower- and middle-income shoppers weighs on spending. Consumers’ growing focus on value is leading to more trips, smaller baskets, and greater reliance on promotions and private labels. These patterns are driving Kroger to intensify price cuts and promotions to keep shoppers from trading down.
This year’s Spotify Wrapped went out with fewer hitches than its underwhelming 2024 edition, but it now competes directly with recap offerings emerging from rivals like Amazon, YouTube, and Apple. Wrapped-style roundups have become cultural elements—shareable, identity-driven moments that make passive listening a form of social currency. As competitors replicate the format, the concept is shifting from a Spotify differentiator to a baseline expectation. Other brands could enter the space by creating their own Wrapped summaries, turning purchase behavior, sponsored influencer posts, or product usage into shareable moments.
Dentsu forecasts the global advertising market will surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2026, growing 5.1% and powered by digital channels that will capture nearly 69% of total spend. Retail media leads with projected 14%–16% growth, while online video and social also expand double digits. Major global events—including the Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and a packed political calendar—will drive attention and pricing pressure across markets. APAC remains the fastest-growing region, led by India and China, while the US will represent about 40% of worldwide spend. For marketers, algorithm-first planning, advanced measurement, and early tentpole buying will be critical.
Dentsu forecasts the global advertising market will surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2026, growing 5.1% and powered by digital channels that will capture nearly 69% of total spend. Retail media leads with projected 14%–16% growth, while online video and social also expand double digits. Major global events—including the Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and a packed political calendar—will drive attention and pricing pressure across markets. APAC remains the fastest-growing region, led by India and China, while the US will represent about 40% of worldwide spend. For marketers, algorithm-first planning, advanced measurement, and early tentpole buying will be critical.
TikTok users’ engagement-driven discovery habits offer a unique benefit to social marketers. Eighty-three percent of weekly US users ages 13 and older have taken some type of action after seeing an ad on TikTok, per Edison Research’s The Infinite Scroll report, and 64% have used TikTok to discover new music, 47% to find new podcasts, and 30% to discover audiobooks. To capitalize on TikTok users’ discovery mindset, broad reach, and positive UX, focus on building campaigns that tap into trending sounds, videos, and behaviors to meet users during moments of intentional discovery.
Midmarket department stores entered the holiday season with surprising momentum after strong Q3 results, prompting Macy’s, Kohl’s, and Dillard’s to raise their outlooks. But the improvement comes amid a strained consumer environment as low- and middle-income shoppers remain cautious. Softer Black Friday traffic and growing shifts toward off-price chains signal ongoing pressure. The results suggest that despite signs of progress, these retailers must sharpen their value proposition to compete more effectively for value-seeking consumers in the months ahead.
TikTok Shop’s US GMV exceeded $500 million from Black Friday through Cyber Monday, fueled by a nearly 50% jump in shoppers and rapid momentum in livestream commerce. Brands and sellers using livestreams saw 84% sales growth as viewers engaged with more than 760,000 sessions generating 1.6 billion views, a trend amplified by major influencers like Kim Kardashian. Other platforms, including Whatnot, also posted strong holiday results, signaling growing comfort with live buying. The data points to TikTok Shop’s accelerating scale and suggests it is well positioned to capture a larger share of holiday spending as more major brands join the platform.
US small businesses largely missed out on the record Big Five shopping, per a Fiserv press release. Issuers and payment providers should look to boost their local merchants’ sales and consumers’ spending by making it easier to shop small. Local neighborhood networks like Square Neighborhood and Bilt’s local deals can encourage SMB spending in consumers’ stomping grounds. Integrated BNPL offers may also entice spending from young consumers who are adverse to the perceived risks of revolving credit or are locked out from traditional lines.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss what’s still holding Amazon back in grocery — and what could finally move the needle. Listen to the discussion with Vice President of Content and host Suzy Davidkhanian, Principal Analyst Sky Canaves, and Senior Analyst Blake Droesch.
Old Navy wants to stand out for consumers with convenience, now offering same-day delivery on items including jeans, beanies, and dress shoes through DoorDash. “It’s a classic win-win,” said Nishith Rastogi, founder and CEO of Locus, a logistics tech provider recently acquired by IKEA parent company Ingka Group. “The retailer gets speed, and the platform gets density and stronger utilization across its network.”
American Eagle’s Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce campaigns helped get eyes on the brand but failed to deliver the sales lift analysts were expecting. The two campaigns combined generated over 44 billion impressions, but comparable sales for the American Eagle brand rose just 1% YoY in the quarter, missing expectations for 2.1% growth. Ultimately, American Eagle’s record Q3 revenues owed less to the high-visibility Sweeney ad and more to strong execution at its Aerie brand, where comparable sales rose 11%. While buzzy celebrity-led campaigns can help restore brand relevance, their impact will be fleeting if companies’ merchandising and product availability fall short.
More than half of US holiday shoppers (55%) plan to make purchases online, according to an October 2025 survey from the National Retail Federation.
Cyber Monday generated a record $14.25 billion in US online sales, rising 7.1% year over year and slightly surpassing expectations despite a Shopify outage. Strong momentum carried through the Cyber Five period, highlighted by a 9.1% Black Friday jump, while inflation steered shoppers toward categories like electronics, apparel, and furniture. BNPL usage hit an all-time high with $1.03 billion in spending, and mobile devices drove most purchases at 57.5%. The season’s performance underscores resilient demand but also a more price-sensitive consumer increasingly reliant on value and flexible payment options.