Even if tariffs ease, their effects on consumer behavior will linger into 2026, redefining how consumers evaluate value, loyalty, and where they spend.

Across industries, elevated prices will be the most immediate and persistent consequence.

“Pricing [will have the biggest impact] as tariffs cause prices to remain high in certain categories,” said Matt Grandchamp, vice president of sales at NowThis.

As price pressure increases, consumers are becoming more selective, less impulsive, and more demanding of clear value.

• “An inflation psychology will reshape consumer behavior long after the macro pressure eases,” said Adam Brotman, co-CEO of Forum3. “Even mild price increases will push value-conscious shoppers toward private label, refurbished goods, and AI-powered deal-hunting tools.”
• Retailers must respond by providing more financing options and aggressive loyalty-driven promotions.

Trading down, trading up, and abandoning the middle

As consumers adjust spending, polarization is accelerating.

“Consumers have already adapted to higher prices, but in 2026 they’ll be far more ruthless about what earns their spend,” said Brian Salzman, founder and CEO of RQ. “We’ll see sharper trade-down on anything undifferentiated, and trade-up for brands that deliver emotional or experiential value.”

That divide is putting pressure on brands stuck in between.

“Tariffs won’t just shift consumer spending, they’ll accelerate the value-versus-loyalty divide,” said Tom Burke, CEO of AtData. “Cost-conscious shoppers will chase price. Brand-committed shoppers will expect hyper-personalized experiences that justify the premium. Retailers stuck in the middle will lose both groups.”

Elevated prices will push consumers toward “private labels (store brands), which are being positioned as quality alternatives to national brands,” said Kaila Vallee, executive vice president at Rainstorm Direct, noting shoppers will lean on resale, repair, and secondhand purchases to offset higher costs in fashion and electronics.

That doesn’t mean price alone wins. “Tariffs will drive some price sensitivity, but the bigger shift will be toward value-based decision-making, where perceived utility, personal ethics, and transparency matter as much as cost,” said Misha Williams, chief operating officer of GWI.

Supply chains will shift

Tariffs are reshaping where and how goods are made, directly affecting pricing and choice.

“We’ll probably see a continued increase in brand manufacturing shifting to lower-tariff zones,” said Alex Nisenzon, CEO of Charm.io. “As a result, there will be a commensurate increase in prices passed to consumers, causing consumers to either pay up… or shift to lower cost alternatives.”

Those alternatives increasingly show up as dupes, resale, or nontraditional brands, especially in social commerce environments where price comparison is frictionless and discovery is fast.

For US brands operating internationally, tariffs introduce an additional challenge.

• “Tariffs are accelerating anti-American sentiment abroad while simultaneously fueling commercial nationalism,” said Brian Stout, global strategy lead at Ogilvy Chicago. “Many American brands abroad can no longer rely on the cachet of being American. That premium has eroded.”
• Instead, Stout said, brands must “pivot their focus to being culturally relevant on a hyper-local level and to earning share-of-voice outside of traditional media.”

Domestically, trust and storytelling are becoming key differentiators as price sensitivity rises.

“As consumers become savvier, prioritizing quality and brand trust over impulse purchases, storytelling and perceived value will be critical differentiators,” Grandchamp said.

Why brand investment still matters

Tariffs are also increasing scrutiny on marketing investment itself.

• “New IAB research shows that 94% of advertising decision-makers are concerned about tariff-driven cost pressure, and more than 80% say they will move more of their budgets to channels that can demonstrate ROI,” said Collin Colburn, vice president of commerce at IAB.
• In 2026, he said, tariffs will lead to a stronger emphasis on measurable value, with marketers focusing on “campaigns that show clear outcomes, offer flexibility, and influence purchases in ways they can see and confirm.”

Still, marketers need to be careful not to sacrifice long-term brand strength for short-term relief.

“All the evidence from decades of studies shows that going dark or reducing ad spend in [a tough climate] has a long-lasting negative effect on your brand,” said Rodrigo Paolucci, global head of marketing at Channel Factory. “The brands that chose to stay the course will be the ones remembered and chosen when wallets open up again.”

This was originally featured in the Retail Daily newsletter. For more retail insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.