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Retail & Ecommerce

The news: JPMorgan will charge fintechs fees to access its customers’ bank account information, per a report from Bloomberg. Our take: This fee regime would be a pivotal win for JPMorgan that would undoubtedly be emulated by other banks anxious to tap a new revenue stream.

The news: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia recorded the first year-over-year decline in delinquency rates since the fourth quarter of 2021, per a report. Our take: As consumers’ financial situation recovers, banks need to plot out their next move.

The news: The trade war between the US and the rest of the world is heating up again, thanks to President Donald Trump’s latest threats to boost universal tariffs and impose stiffer duties on Canada and Brazil. Our take: The newly announced duties—should they come to pass—will push the US into the heavy tariff scenario outlined in our tariff report. Based on our forecast, that would mean a 1% decline in retail sales this year, the first contraction since 2009, as rising prices force consumers to prioritize essentials.

The initiative: Urban Outfitters is teaming with HGTV to launch the “Dream Dorm Makeover Contest,” which invites students to create a Pinterest board that captures their vision for a dorm that reflects their personal style, supports their daily routines, and feels like home. Our take: The campaign is designed to help Urban Outfitters connect with Gen Z students and their parents, as well as millennials seeking creative ways to revamp small spaces.

Retailers and CPG brands may face challenges as President Donald Trump’s so-called “big, beautiful bill” takes effect, ushering in sweeping changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

The news: PayPal rolled out a dynamic, AI-powered scam alert system to protect consumers against fraud for “Friends and Family” transactions. Our take: Rolling out user-facing AI-powered fraud protection alerts increases PayPal’s visibility as a safe financial provider for more than just online checkout at well-known retailers.

The news: Early Warnings Services’ Zelle submitted a letter in response to the Treasury Department’s request for information on paperless payment services. Our take: Winning this contract would dramatically boost Zelle’s payment volume, but it faces steep competition from incumbents and other structural roadblocks.

The news: American Express rolled out special London-based perks and offerings as a part of its Adventures with Amex series. Our take: Sixty percent of respondents to Amex’s Global Travel Trend Report planned on taking at least one trip for a sporting event this year. Hitching its London adventure rollout to both F1 and Wimbledon can get those travelers to book through Amex’s platform instead of a competitor’s.

The news: The Federal Trade Commission’s “click-to-cancel” rule that would have simplified canceling subscriptions was rejected by a US federal appeals court on Tuesday, exposing a rift between the priorities of advertisers and digital service providers and those of consumers. Our take: The ruling is seen as a win for companies that use subscriptions for first-party data to strengthen their ad ecosystem, giving protection for those looking to reduce churn and run more effective programmatic and retargeting campaigns. But while advertisers may benefit from the decision, consumers still want an easier process—and simplifying cancellations can benefit businesses in several ways.

The news: Ulta Beauty acquired upscale UK beauty retailer Space NK for an undisclosed amount, the company said, as it turns to new markets to offset slowing US growth. Our take: The US beauty market is becoming increasingly saturated as more retailers lean on the category to boost sluggish sales. While expanding to new markets comes with its own set of challenges, Ulta’s decision to rely on acquisitions and distribution partnerships will help smooth its path.

The news: Consumers increasingly see connected TV (CTV) ads as helpful during the holiday shopping season, according to LG Ad Solutions’ latest study. A growing number—59%—say CTV ads help guide holiday purchases, a 43% YoY spike. Home screen CTV ads are clicking—26% of shoppers find them helpful for purchases, up 105% YoY. For advertisers, they’re fast becoming high-impact conversion tools amid rising ad loads. Our take: As holiday shopping habits extend into events like Prime Day and Cyber Monday, advertisers that align messaging, timing, and format across CTV platforms will win both attention and conversions.

On today’s podcast episode, we discuss Every Man Jack’s performance vs. brand marketing priorities, the role of marketplaces for the company, and what tactics the brand uses to stand out from the pack. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Principal Analyst Sky Canaves, Senior Analyst Zak Stambor, and VP of Growth Marketing & E-Commerce at Every Man Jack Nick Hasselberg.

The insight: Prime Day got off to a strong start, according to Adobe data, despite alternative reports of a dip in spending. Our take: The early Prime Day enthusiasm is an encouraging sign for Amazon, which is counting on the event to not only boost sales but also unlock additional ad revenues. It could also be a good sign for retailers running competing sales. While we ultimately expect the longer sales period to benefit the ecommerce giant, shoppers’ growing awareness of other events—and propensity to comparison-shop—could help retailers like Walmart and Target grow their share of an increasingly lucrative shopping period.

The news: Generative AI (genAI) is expected to play a bigger role than ever in ecommerce during Amazon’s Prime Day event this week. Adobe predicts that genAI-driven traffic will surge 3,200% YoY as more consumers use AI for searching for products, price matching, and purchasing decisions. Our take: While still trailing traditional channels like paid search and email, AI is winning consumer trust and influencing higher-consideration purchases​​. Marketers that can tailor shopping content around AI search could help their clients gain visibility. Structure product data, promotions, and sales content for AI interfaces like chatbots, shopping agents, and search for more conversational browsing with a higher conversion rate.

The challenge: Chocolate makers are feeling the squeeze as cocoa powder prices have jumped nearly 16% YoY due to a global shortage, per Bloomberg. Our take: Small price increases add up—especially in an environment where consumers are still scarred by the coronavirus-era wave of inflation. Today’s shoppers are hyperaware of price hikes and increasingly willing to switch brands, delay purchases, or trade down. That puts added pressure on retailers and manufacturers to either justify price increases through quality and innovation—or find new ways to absorb rising costs without compromising brand trust.

The situation: QSRs are in a tough spot. The restaurant industry had monthly traffic growth in just one of the 12 months through May, according to Black Box Intelligence data cited by CNBC. Our take: QSRs can’t afford to stand still. In a tough operating environment, brands that act decisively and innovate boldly are best positioned to outpace the macroeconomic headwinds. Even if every move doesn’t deliver an immediate payoff, momentum matters—and sitting on the sidelines is the riskiest strategy of all.

The insight: Fashion M&A activity is drying up as uncertainty and structural challenges dampen investor interest. The number of deals in the apparel and accessories category fell nearly 40% YoY globally in Q2, according to PitchBook data reported by Modern Retail. Our take: The current macroeconomic environment is not conducive to most M&A activity, as uncertainty pushes companies to conserve resources and focus on their core businesses. But for retailers in a relative position of strength, now could be the time to make strategic acquisitions that either reinforce their existing advantages or enable them to diversify.

41% of US Amazon Prime members will spend more time shopping on Amazon due to a longer Prime Day event this year, according to May 2025 data from Tinuiti.

The news: Gen Z’s share of private label spending will overtake that of baby boomers by 2026, according to a Numerator report. Our take: Gen Z’s affinity for private labels is part of a broader behavioral shift—one that retailers are making the most of. To encourage loyalty among this notoriously fickle cohort, companies will need to stay on top of emerging food trends, foster exclusivity and a sense of urgency with limited-edition releases, and make sure they satisfy Gen Zers’ desire for attractive packaging, transparent labeling, and sustainability.

The news: 82% of travelers are interested in using points from non-travel loyalty programs to book trips, per a report from Expedia—including 43% who are extremely interested. Our take: Capturing expensive travel purchases is critical to reinforcing issuers’ card volume as economic anxieties make consumers spend less.