The situation: Holiday sales projections are all over the map this year, reflecting diverging behaviors across income groups.

• Deloitte expects holiday sales to grow 2.9% to 3.4% from November to January—well below last year’s 4.2% pace. Ecommerce sales are seen climbing 7% to 9%, roughly in line with last year’s 8% gain.
• Bain forecasts a 4% increase in the final two months of the year, with nonstore sales—which includes ecommerce and mail orders—slowing to 7% after two years of 9% to 10% growth.
• PwC projects a 5% drop in average seasonal spending, the first meaningful decline since 2020.