In a special Thanksgiving-themed episode of “Behind the Numbers,” we ranked the retail and brand initiatives we’re thankful for this season, from viral merchandise to purpose-driven campaigns. "We're looking at those strategies, launches, and collabs that we're genuinely grateful for, the moves that made us smile, surprised us, or gave us hope for where retail is headed," said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian.
As commerce media buyers face more choices, Dollar General is pitching its large store footprint as an opportunity to reach shoppers in rural and underserved markets, particularly with its retail media offering, DG Media Network.
Shoppers spent over $75 million on live shopping platform Whatnot during Black Friday, the company told EMARKETER. That’s three times last year’s total, underscoring the medium’s swift ascendance and pointing to rising consumer comfort with the format. Livestream commerce’s ability to blur the lines between shopping and entertainment is helping to drive adoption across generations. We expect US livestream ecommerce sales to rise by nearly 50% this year to $14.64 billion, while the number of buyers will jump by 21.5%. Platforms, retailers, and brands that lean into the entertainment and educational aspects of live shopping will be best equipped to capture—and keep—shoppers’ attention.
Reports of Gen Z’s sluggish holiday spending may be exaggerated. Brands like Edikted, Kendra Scott, and Bath & Body Works—favorites of the cohort—saw heavier foot traffic during Black Friday, per Bloomberg. The cohort will account for a greater share of Cyber Five spending this year—18%—while all other generations will see their share decline, per Deloitte. With the pressures on Gen Z spending set to persist beyond the holiday season, brands and retailers will have to work hard to make their case to the increasingly cash-strapped cohort.
A worsening macro environment is pushing major retailers and restaurants to close locations as rising costs and shifting consumer habits erode profitability, prompting cuts from Yankee Candle, Carter’s, American Signature, and Wendy’s. Industry data shows elevated vacancy rates and slower net absorption ahead, though new construction remains limited, helping support occupancy. While bankruptcy-driven closures have recently eased, the sector still faces meaningful pressure. Even so, we expect physical retail sales to grow 2.8% next year, offering a stabilizing force that should help sustain space demand despite continued consolidation.
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) volume hit new highs over the first half of the holiday season, including $747.5 million in online spending on Black Friday alone, an 8.9% YoY increase. Klarna reported Black Friday sales boosted its November volume 45% YoY, and PayPal said pre-Black Friday sales promotions lifted its BNPL volume by 23% YoY. The growth of BNPL volume signals alternate credit’s rising place in US consumer spending. The trend reflects both consumers’ financial strain and their continued willingness to spend, even if it means restructuring how they pay.
Households with GLP-1 users could account for 35% of food and beverage sales by 2030, up from 23% today, per Circana. Rising GLP-1 usage is reshaping grocery spending, with profound implications for foodmakers and grocers. As GLP-1s grow more accessible—thanks to microdosing, efforts to make the drugs more affordable, and the pending release of a weight-loss pill—their impact will be more deeply felt beyond food to sectors including apparel, wellness, beauty, and restaurants.
Consumers are turning toward social media and AI tools to guide their holiday shopping journeys, pulling influence away from traditional search and retail sites. Fifty-seven percent of US consumers plan to use social media for holiday shopping research and 39% plan to use AI for that task. Discovery is happening before consumers know what they want—inside social feeds and AI chats. To capture social shoppers, brands should diversify spend away from saturated platforms like Instagram and experiment with others, and invest in content partnerships that are visible in platform algorithms and increase user trust.
AI is playing a notable role in holiday shopping this year as consumers express comfort with AI-supported gifting and receiving. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of US adults would consider using genAI for holiday shopping this year, up from 11% last year, per HUMAN Security’s SantaGPT report. With AI becoming a trusted partner for stressful gift-buying moments like the holidays, marketers have the opportunity to frame AI features—including smart gift finders or on-site AI-powered shopping guides—as stress-reducing tools to streamline the shopping journey.
Generative AI is rapidly transforming how travelers plan and book trips, with usage climbing from 8% in 2023 to 24% this year and projected to reach 65% by next year. As tools like Google’s AI Mode and OpenAI’s Instant Checkout streamline itinerary building and booking, they introduce new price pressures for major travel platforms while consumers increasingly book directly with airlines, hotels, and rental companies. With many travelers still forming habits around AI, we believe travel brands have a prime opportunity to strengthen loyalty by integrating with leading platforms and offering seamless rewards across both direct and AI-assisted bookings.
Black Friday 2025 sales outperformed expectations as consumers, motivated by steep discounts, drove 4.1% retail growth and a 10.4% jump in ecommerce despite ongoing inflation pressures. Shoppers responded strongly to major deals across toys, electronics, apparel, and TVs, even as overall enthusiasm for the day slipped and higher prices weighed on order volumes. Mobile dominated online activity, BNPL usage grew, and genAI-powered shopping surged, boosting conversion rates for retailers using the technology. The results suggest consumers are cautious yet still willing to spend selectively, signaling a steadier holiday season than anticipated.
Retailers aren’t waiting for Black Friday to kick off their holiday campaigns. Since October 1, linear TV holiday ad spend reached $475.1 million, up 13.2% YoY, according to iSpot. Weekly spending has also climbed steadily, indicating brands are frontloading their budgets to capture demand across all of Q4.
US Bank offered cardholders exclusive discounts during its “Bonus Days,” per press release. Rewards include double cash back, double rewards at certain retailers, 10% off gift card purchases, and select discounts on merchandise, all activated and available through US Bank’s shopping portals and app. Slowly shifting consumers’ attention into banking and payment apps can open major new revenue streams for issuers. However, as these initiatives are piloted, issuers can’t lose consumers’ trust with their data.
Sezzle partnered with David’s Bridal, per a press release. Shoppers will be able to select Sezzle’s buy now, pay later (BNPL) financing at checkout in-store, with ecommerce solutions rolling out in the following weeks. Strategic partnerships will be critical to helping an underdog BNPL competitor capture volume. While BNPL firms are embracing partnerships with mobile wallets and POS providers to fast-track their acceptance networks, striking individual partnerships in largely untapped industries like wedding wear can be critical to gaining market share—especially while the biggest players compete in more concentrated industries like travel.
31.2% of consumers have used a mobile wallet in-store as of September—nearly triple the rate three years earlier, per PYMNTS Intelligence report. Apple Pay’s dominance is likely to stick for now, but its lead will narrow as PayPal, Cash App, and Google Pay strategies draw in more users. As wallet competition ramps up, features that help users manage more of their financial—and even non-financial—lives will help providers create stickier wallets that attract more volume. That includes subscription management services, order tracking, and interactive airline and event tickets.
33% of US restaurant diners discover promotions via email/newsletters and 32% via social media, according to a September 2025 survey from YouGov.
On today's podcast episode, we discuss the unofficial list of retail moves we're most thankful for. This month—because it's Thanksgiving Eve—host Suzy Davidkhanian, Arielle Feger, Becky Schilling, and Emmy Liederman (aka The Committee) have put together a very unofficial list of the top eight retailers they're watching, based on strategies, launches, and collaborations we’re genuinely thankful for — the moves that made us smile, surprised us, or gave us hope for where retail is heading. In this episode, Committee members Suzy Davidkhanian and Emmy Liederman will defend their list against Senior Analyst Zak Stambor and Analyst Rachel Wolff, who will dispute the power rankings by attempting to move retailers up, down, on, or off the list.
Brands and retailers are struggling to keep up with changes to the shopper experience as consumers adopt genAI-powered “click-less journeys.”
Canada published the draft of its Stablecoin Act as part of its Budget 2025 Implementation Act. It applies to stablecoins issued by entities that are not prudentially regulated. For Canadian banks and fintechs, the impending legislation signals that stablecoins are normalizing everywhere as a regulated alternative to cash as a store of value and for electronic payments. The use cases are particularly interesting for Canadian financial institutions and stablecoin issuers who will use stablecoins to move money across the US border.
A slate of retailers boosted their outlooks following strong Q3 performances, a positive sign as the industry heads into the most important shopping period of the year. Best Buy, Dick's Sporting Goods, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Kohl's all updated their FY sales guidance, pointing to ongoing consumer resilience despite growing pessimism about the state of the economy and personal finances. The outlook for holiday spending is notably stronger than it appeared earlier this year: We expect sales in November and December to rise 3.6% YoY, slower than last year’s 4.4% growth but a significant upgrade from our May forecast.