The news: Best Buy is testing a store-within-a-store concept with Ikea, aimed at helping customers more seamlessly integrate its appliances into Ikea-designed kitchens and laundry rooms. This marks the first time the Swedish retailer has offered services and products within another US retailer. Our take: Pairing two well-known, purpose-driven brands around a shared customer use case—home design and functionality—is a smart play. The in-person branded experience should provide value to shoppers and offer a win-win path to renewed relevance and growth for both companies.
The data: US consumer spending inched up just 1.4% YoY in Q2, per the US Commerce Department. While that’s up from the tepid 0.5% in Q1, it’s well below the 2.8% growth in spending in 2024, and the fifth-slowest rate since Q3 2021. Goods spending rose 2.2% YoY, up from 0.1% the prior quarter, while services spending increased 1.1% YoY, ahead of the 0.6% in Q1. Our take: Eliminating the de minimis exemption levels the playing field between international ecommerce sellers and domestic retailers—but could also drive up prices for consumers.
The situation: Amazon and Google, once bound by a symbiotic relationship in which Amazon funneled ad dollars into Google Search and Google indexed Amazon’s pages, are now veering toward open conflict as generative AI (genAI) blurs the lines between ecommerce, advertising, and search. Both companies are determined to own the entire journey from discovery to checkout, and that ambition is unraveling what remains of their former détente. Our take: Amazon and Google are racing to define where and how consumers discover and buy products in the genAI era. If Amazon succeeds in walling off its marketplace data and steering shoppers to its own AI interfaces, the retail landscape could splinter into walled gardens where tech giants cooperate far less. That winner‑takes‑all dynamic might suit the victors, but it risks degrading the overall consumer experience with fewer choices and less transparent pricing. At the same time, it could lead brands and retailers into a margin‑sapping race to the bottom inside whichever closed ecosystem proves most dominant.
The news: President Donald Trump signed an executive order to close the so-called de minimis trade loophole, which allows foreign packages valued under $800 to enter the US tariff-free. Effective August 29, all shipments under that threshold—regardless of origin—will be subject to duties based on value and country of origin. The White House already ended the exemption for packages from China and Hong Kong on May 2. Our take: Eliminating the de minimis exemption levels the playing field between international ecommerce sellers and domestic retailers—but could also drive up prices for consumers.
The news: Publicis Groupe has won PayPal’s global media business, building on the holding company’s winning streak and proving to rivals that its momentum in securing major accounts shows no signs of slowing. WPP Media previously handled PayPal’s media account but resigned the account in April, citing the need to “pursue other opportunities,” per Ad Age. Our take: Publicis’ win of PayPal’s global media business underscores a growing advertiser shift toward integrated partnerships, where creative, media, and retail strategies merge to unlock greater performance and monetization potential.
As tariffs push prices up, consumers are reevaluating their brand loyalties—and many are walking away for good. What once felt like long-term relationships are now being tested by sticker shock, with even high-income shoppers turning to discount retailers and finding satisfaction in switching.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss the unofficial list of the most interesting retailers for the month of July. Each month, our analysts Arielle Feger, Becky Schilling, and Vice President of Content and guest host, Suzy Davidkhanian (aka The Committee) put together a very unofficial list of the top eight retailers they're watching based on which are making the most interesting moves: Who's launching new initiatives? Which partnerships are moving the needle? Which standout marketing campaigns are being created? In this month's episode, Committee members Arielle Feger and Suzy Davidkhanian will defend their list against Senior Analyst Blake Droesch, and Principal Analyst Sky Canaves, who will dispute the power rankings by attempting to move retailers up, down, on, or off the list.
The challenges: UPS’ turnaround remains in the early innings due to structural inefficiencies, operational missteps, and mounting macroeconomic headwinds. Our take: UPS faces a difficult road ahead. The company is actively trying to streamline operations—planning to shutter up to 10% of its buildings, downsize its fleet, and reduce its US workforce to better align with leaner volumes. It’s also trimming low-margin business, notably cutting back on Amazon deliveries, which made up as much as 11.8% of its total revenues last year, in an effort to prioritize more profitable shipments. Still, with demand under pressure and cost headwinds mounting, stabilizing performance will be an uphill climb.
The news: Citigroup unveiled the Citi Strata Elite Card, its new premium card, per a press release. However, its rewards package lacks some of the flexibility that its peer card, Sapphire Reserve, holds in travel booking. While Reserve cardholders are more handsomely rewarded when booking through Chase travel platforms, members still receive points for booking travel directly—Strata Elite members lack that privilege.
The triopoly looks stronger, but it's digital that's getting bigger. Amazon, Google, and Meta now command 58.8% of total US ad dollars, up from 47.1% in 2020. But that's not an indication that the triopoly's control of the digital ad market is growing.
The news: Cash App launched “pools”—a feature to make group payments frictionless—to a limited number of US-based users with plans for a later wider rollout, per a press release. Our take: Cash App wants to cement itself among Gen Z users, households making up to $150,000 annually, and the populations traditionally overlooked by legacy financial institutions.
The news: PayPal will enable Pay with Crypto in an attempt to streamline cross-border payments for US merchants through its intricate network of digital wallet and cryptocurrency integrations in the coming weeks. In the meantime, US consumers will have to break age-old payment habits: Only 8% of crypto owners who use cryptocurrency to purchase goods and services do so daily; most only use it up to four times a year. Building these consumer payment preferences will take time, so PayPal should remain patient.
The news: D2C brand Quince is now valued at $4.5 billion following a $200 million funding round, per Bloomberg. That’s more than double its valuation from earlier this year and marks its second successful fundraising attempt in six months. Quince’s meteoric rise reflects the normalization of dupe culture. Shoppers are no longer making decisions solely on brand name and are gravitating toward companies that offer a compelling combination of affordability and quality.
The news: WPP Media launched a “first-of-its-kind activation” with ad-tech company Criteo, marking the first big advancement in WPP’s “Open Intelligence” data platform for connected TV (CTV). The activation, built to offer “more value for advertisers," is currently being tested with Samsung, Roku, and Scripps. While more specific details were not provided, WPP Media stated in a press release that the pilot provides “premium supply with real-time commerce signals” from Criteo. Our take: WPP Media and Criteo’s partnership solidifies CTV as a performance-centric channel, giving advertisers new tools to target high-intent shoppers and drive measurable outcomes at scale.
This year, Amazon extended its July Prime Day event from two to four days, giving consumers more time to shop, brands more opportunities to advertise, and Amazon more time to generate sales.
Ocado Ads has partnered with data collaboration platform Permutive to make its first-party purchase data available to select UK publishers.
The situation: The US housing market is in rough shape, as homes aren’t selling, yet prices keep climbing. In June—typically the spring peak—existing-home sales fell 2.7% MoM, while the median price hit a record $435,300, per the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This spring marked the weakest selling season since 2012, with just 1.39 million contracts signed from April to June, per Redfin. That was down 9.7% from last year, which was also a weak sales season. Our take: With transactions stalled and prices still climbing, the housing market offers little short-term relief. For retailers tethered to homeownership and moving cycles, that’s a stubborn headwind—especially as tariff costs rise and consumers grow more selective about their discretionary spend. Retailers tied to housing can keep sales going by highlighting their affordable products as well as the long-term value of items like appliances and furniture.
emu’s attempts to tariff-proof its business are running into opposition from regulators and sellers alike. The company has been accused of failing to protect EU users from illegal products. Efforts to woo US sellers to its marketplace are also running aground as companies and merchants refuse to sell products on Temu for less than what they retail for on Amazon. For all its troubles, we expect Temu’s US ecommerce sales to rise 13.5% this year, which would be the second-fastest rate of growth among the companies we track—but a far cry from the triple-digit increases it enjoyed over the past few years. With governments increasingly unfavorable to its business tactics—and Amazon increasingly inclined to flex its market power—Temu will need a new playbook to navigate the current era of uncertainty and tariffs.
President Donald Trump said the US will set a global “baseline” tariff in the 15%–20% range, up from the 10% rate he outlined in April. Our take: Steep tariffs are the new normal. Consumers currently face an average effective tariff of 18.2%—17.3% after adjusting for spending shifts—the highest since the 1930s, per Yale Budget Lab.
The contrast: At a time when many big box retailers are struggling, Tractor Supply Co. bucked the trend by delivering its strongest sales growth in two years—up 4.5% YoY to $4.44 billion—driven in part by solid momentum in big-ticket purchases. That performance stands in stark contrast to peers like Target and Home Depot, which have seen consumers pull back on discretionary and high-priced items. Our take: Tractor Supply’s formula is simple: high-quality experience + strong loyalty program + scale = growth. It delights shoppers, rewards them, and keeps expanding its footprint. That approach is helping it outrun the macro headwinds—and its largely US-sourced assortment leaves it better insulated from tariff and supply shocks than many other merchants.