emu’s attempts to tariff-proof its business are running into opposition from regulators and sellers alike. The company has been accused of failing to protect EU users from illegal products. Efforts to woo US sellers to its marketplace are also running aground as companies and merchants refuse to sell products on Temu for less than what they retail for on Amazon. For all its troubles, we expect Temu’s US ecommerce sales to rise 13.5% this year, which would be the second-fastest rate of growth among the companies we track—but a far cry from the triple-digit increases it enjoyed over the past few years. With governments increasingly unfavorable to its business tactics—and Amazon increasingly inclined to flex its market power—Temu will need a new playbook to navigate the current era of uncertainty and tariffs.

President Donald Trump said the US will set a global “baseline” tariff in the 15%–20% range, up from the 10% rate he outlined in April. Our take: Steep tariffs are the new normal. Consumers currently face an average effective tariff of 18.2%—17.3% after adjusting for spending shifts—the highest since the 1930s, per Yale Budget Lab.

The contrast: At a time when many big box retailers are struggling, Tractor Supply Co. bucked the trend by delivering its strongest sales growth in two years—up 4.5% YoY to $4.44 billion—driven in part by solid momentum in big-ticket purchases. That performance stands in stark contrast to peers like Target and Home Depot, which have seen consumers pull back on discretionary and high-priced items. Our take: Tractor Supply’s formula is simple: high-quality experience + strong loyalty program + scale = growth. It delights shoppers, rewards them, and keeps expanding its footprint. That approach is helping it outrun the macro headwinds—and its largely US-sourced assortment leaves it better insulated from tariff and supply shocks than many other merchants.

The volatile macroeconomic environment is causing most shoppers to be more cautious with their spending, but it’s also driving a subset to spend more in search of comfort. Roughly 2 in 5 shoppers (38%) say that the current stress of economic uncertainty is making them spend more, according to a June LendingTree survey. Consumers may be choosing to spend more of their money on essentials, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be swayed to spend a little extra on the occasional indulgence—particularly if there’s an element of novelty, or if the purchase offers a sense of emotional comfort. While the Labubu craze is likely to fizzle out as quickly as it started, shoppers will remain as eager as ever to splurge on small luxuries that bring them satisfaction.

The news: Fiserv’s organic revenues grew 8% in Q2, per its earnings release. Our take: Fiserv’s Clover faces a stacked market with Shift4, Square, and Toast all offering competitive POS solutions for SMBs.

The news: New account openings were down 5% across Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, and American Express during Q2 2025, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Issuers are going to chase opportunities to increase their payment volume, which explains targeted efforts to boost luxury travel and dining rewards. But looking long-term, banks need to think strategically about loosening their credit guidelines.

The news: Mastercard rolled out the AI Card Design Studio, which lets consumers and small businesses at participating banks personalize the front of their card, including with AI-generated images and designs. Our take: Mastercard offering a free, AI-based design feature lets businesses and customers maximize their design flexibility and the emotional impact of their products. (Remember customized checks with family photos?)