The insight: Physical retail—particularly malls—is expected to play a larger role in holiday sales this year, according to JLL’s 2024 Holiday Shopping Report.

• Mall visits are forecast to rise 18% year over year (YoY), while the number of mall shoppers will spike 18.7% YoY.
• Nearly 6 in 10 consumers (58.3%) plan to shop at a physical store not located in an enclosed mall this year, up over 10 percentage points compared with 2023.

Behind the numbers: The vast majority, 80.2%, of holiday retail sales will take place in person this year, according to our forecast. We expect physical retail sales to grow 3.7% YoY in November and December—an acceleration from 2023, and more than double the channel’s full-year growth rate.

Interestingly, JLL’s report found that department stores ranked as consumers’ most popular destination for holiday shopping this year (57.9%), followed by apparel stores (50.1%) and mass merchants (45.9%).

• Department stores’ popularity is tied to malls’ resurgence: Roughly three-quarters of mall shoppers plan to visit a department store for their seasonal purchases, led by high-income consumers and men.
• That’s welcome news for retailers like Kohl’s and Macy’s, which are struggling to connect with consumers at other times of the year.
• Kohl’s is hoping to entice shoppers—and get in on the October sales action—with a three-day sales event from October 7 to 9, while Macy’s is preparing for the holiday rush by adding 31,500 full- and part-time seasonal employees across its various department store banners and distribution centers.

That said, Amazon, Walmart, and Target have a significant lead over all other retailers this holiday season.

• Nearly two-thirds (64.7%) of shoppers listed Amazon as one of their top destinations, followed by Walmart at 47.6% and Target at 41.8%.
• Macy’s was a distant fourth at 9.7%, with Kohl’s (8.6%) and Best Buy (8.4%) rounding out the top five.

Our take: Physical retail’s resurgence this holiday season underlines the importance of having enough staff on hand to handle the influx of customers—especially for struggling department store retailers under pressure to win back shoppers and regain relevance in a highly competitive landscape.

Go further: Read our US Holiday Shopping 2024 report.