Consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies are in turmoil as shifting food trends, cuts to government benefits, and inflation challenge their share of grocery spending, while organizational headwinds compound the pressures. The strain is forcing bold actions and inviting scrutiny. Kraft Heinz’s breakup makes clear that size and brand recognition alone are not enough to ensure consistent growth—even for a company whose portfolio contains such household staples as Kraft Mac & Cheese and Heinz ketchup. While cost cutting is paramount as tariffs add millions to companies’ operating costs, CPGs must balance efficiencies with product innovation to recover some of the sales lost to private labels.
The news: Modelo Especial and Corona maker Constellation Brands cut its full-year forecast, blaming weak consumer demand in a difficult macroeconomic environment. The slowdown has been most pronounced among its core Hispanic demographic, who are cutting back on high-end beer. Our take: At the start of the year, Hispanic consumers looked like a growth engine—they accounted for one-fifth of the US population, $2.8 trillion in purchasing power, and outsize influence in categories from consumer packaged goods to food and beverage. But the Trump administration’s tariffs and mass deportations have chilled this momentum, with roughly 1 in 5 (21% of) Hispanic consumers report having felt unsafe in their local market due to their ethnicity, per The Asian American Foundation. Companies that banked heavily on Hispanic spending may now find that bet falling short.
US beauty shoppers are becoming more price conscious, even as overall spending continues to increase. The lipstick effect may have lost some of its punch, but it continues to support steady beauty sales. We expect US cosmetics and beauty sales to grow a relatively sedate 2.4% this year on strength in the hair and skincare categories.
The news: Keurig Dr Pepper will acquire JDE Peet’s for €15.7 billion ($18.4 billion) to revive its struggling coffee arm before splitting into two public companies. The deal will create a coffee powerhouse by merging KDP with JDE Peet’s global brands that include Peet’s, L’OR, Jacobs, and Douwe Egberts.
Aldi will open a store in New York City’s Times Square next year as part of its aggressive expansion strategy, per media reports. The 25,000-square-foot shop will be located in The Ellery, a new luxury apartment building near the edge of the highly-trafficked neighborhood—making clear the discount grocer’s intentions of wooing more affluent shoppers as it grows its presence in major US cities.
Louis Vuitton’s forthcoming beauty launch will test its pricing power. The brand is betting that premium packaging and high-quality products designed by makeup maven Pat McGrath will convince shoppers to spend $160 on a single lipstick—a risky assumption given the headwinds plaguing the luxury industry. In order for La Beauté Louis Vuitton to succeed, the brand will have to prove to customers that its products are worth the hefty price tag. That’s easier said than done, given waning enthusiasm for premium beauty and the growing popularity of low-cost dupes.
Estée Lauder posted a wider quarterly loss as sales slumped and warned that tariffs could reduce earnings by about $100 million over the next year. Estée Lauder is taking necessary steps to turn around its business—focusing on product innovation, cutting costs, and broadening its customer reach—but it will be tough given intense competition in the beauty market. With key rival L’Oreal gaining US momentum and newer brands emerging, Estée Lauder must accelerate product innovation, reduce reliance on discounting, rebuild momentum in China, and take other steps to win new customers, or risk ceding more ground in the longer term.
The finding: More than 1 in 3 Americans (36%) name alcohol as their go‑to restaurant drink, just ahead of soda (29%) and water (21%), per a July Harris Poll. Nearly 70% of recent diners ordered at least one alcoholic beverage, per Harris. Our take: Alcohol remains a top choice, but nonalcoholic options command the bulk of orders. Restaurants should tailor their beverage programs by guest profile and occasion—showcasing premium, adult‑centric cocktails for millennials and Gen X, while expanding on‑trend, flavorful NA and low‑ABV offerings to engage Gen Z and health‑conscious diners.
Execution missteps remain a stubborn issue in grocery retail. Nearly half (48%) of shoppers have encountered pricing mismatches or promotional errors at checkout—a frequent frustration that quietly undermines trust, per a consumer survey commissioned by store intelligence provider Simbe. At a time when brand loyalty is waning, strong execution and a seamless in-store experience can be a powerful competitive advantage.
After beauty's social return on ad spend (ROAS) dipped to $1.90 in Q4 2024, the category saw a marked jump up to $3.50 in Q1 2025, according to a March report from Cart.com.
More than a dozen food manufacturers have pledged to remove artificial dyes from their products in response to pressure from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement. The shift from artificial dyes underscores the increased sway of public health advocates and consumer demand for cleaner labels—even in the absence of conclusive science. It puts food manufacturers in a tough spot: They are under pressure to reformulate without compromising appearance or taste, all while facing steep costs and limited upside for benefits that may be more symbolic than nutritional.
The Ulta Beauty at Target partnership, which put more than 600 Ulta mini-stores inside Target locations, will end in August 2026 when the current agreement expires. The companies said they mutually agreed not to renew the deal, which launched in 2021. With this business venture set to end, Ulta will focus on new growth opportunities, while Target will gain space to focus on operational improvements and refine its retail strategy.
Quick-service chains like Starbucks, Taco Bell, and Potbelly are leaning into secret menus as a low-risk, high-reward strategy to spark buzz, drive app engagement, and crowdsource product innovation. “Secret” is one of the most powerful words in the marketing playbook—it signals exclusivity, discovery, and insider access. For QSRs, secret menus turn that intrigue into action, gamifying loyalty, testing new flavors, and tapping into cultural trends—all without disrupting operations. By inviting fans to co-create, brands get viral traction and fresh product ideas, often using ingredients already in stock. It’s a low-lift, scalable strategy to boost visits and stay relevant in a crowded, fast-moving category.
Amazon is expanding same-day delivery for fresh groceries to over 1,000 US cities, with plans to reach 2,300 by late 2025. The rollout integrates perishables into its core app for single-cart checkout alongside other goods, offering Prime members free delivery on orders over $25. Early pilots saw strong adoption, especially from first-time grocery buyers who shopped more frequently after trying fresh food. The move pressures rivals like Walmart, Instacart, and Kroger in a slowing but sizable $271 billion online grocery market. If Amazon can convert trial users into loyal customers, it could reshape expectations for grocery delivery speed and convenience.
A key inflation gauge that excludes food and energy prices picked up in July, suggesting tariff-related cost increases are being passed along to consumers. Core CPI, which strips out energy and food, rose 3.1% YoY, up from 2.9% in June. On a monthly basis, that closely watched measure rose 0.3%, the highest increase since January and up from June’s 0.2% advance. Retailers and producers are exhausting their early strategies to shield consumers and will need to plan for sustained cost pressures. Some strategies retailers can take on include negotiating with suppliers on cost-cutting measures or the use of lower-cost materials, exploring investments in onshoring production to avoid tariffs, and increasing D2C sales in a bid to improve profit margins.
Quick-service restaurants (QSRs) are no longer seen primarily as budget-friendly dining. Just 14% of consumers view them as a good value, while nearly a quarter (23%) now consider them a treat or reward, per consumer insights platform Zappi. That’s a notable shift for a category long associated with affordability. That helps explain why nearly a third (31%) of US adults have cut back spending on fast food. As inflation erodes fast food’s traditional value proposition, QSRs must sharpen their brand strategy or risk alienating diners. Brands that lean into indulgence and novelty can help position meals as a “treat,” while doubling down on affordability with compelling promotions and budget-friendly meal deals can reengage price-sensitive consumers.
More Amazon Prime shoppers purchase groceries from Walmart than from the ecommerce retailer, according to Coresight Research data reported by Grocery Dive. While grocery is a hugely important category for Amazon to conquer, its efforts so far have been hampered by a complex ecosystem. The retailer’s attempts to unify that system could result in a more seamless experience for shoppers, while its fast delivery capabilities could make it a more appealing place to shop for perishables.
Over half (56%) of US adults commonly purchase private label grocery/food and beverage products, the most popular category of private label purchased, according to April 2025 data from First Insight.