Commerce media is entering a new phase, one defined less by rapid expansion and more by operational maturity, EMARKETER analysts and industry leaders say. Commerce media ad spending will reach $83.71 billion in the US this year, accounting for 20.5% of all digital ad spending, according to EMARKETER's June 2026 forecast. As the channel becomes a core part of marketers' media strategies, the conversation is shifting from whether to invest to how to make those investments deliver measurable business results. In a new EMARKETER guide titled "Commerce media outlook: What industry leaders see ahead," our analysts and industry leaders give their thoughts about the capabilities brands should prioritize today, the consumer behaviors that will shape tomorrow, and what it will take to succeed as commerce media becomes a permanent pillar of the media mix. Max Willens, a principal analyst at EMARKETER covering social media and the creator economy, told us about how creators are taking a bigger role in retail media and where off-site spending can be used in the marketing funnel.

Commerce media has spent years riding a wave of new advertising dollars. But soon, the industry will need to prepare for a future in which growth comes at someone else's expense. According to EMARKETER's forecast, annual incremental commerce media ad spending will peak at approximately $17 billion in 2027 before declining through 2030. The money isn't drying up. But the pool of new spending that has helped fuel commerce media's expansion is approaching its peak, while more new players are lining up for a piece of it. “The opportunity to simply compete for new spend is getting smaller, and meanwhile, the pressure to generate and create new demands is increasing,” said our analyst Sarah Marzano during a "The Next Era of Commerce Media" presentation held during Advertising Week New York. For commerce media networks, the next opportunity lies in budgets that already have a home. Social media, paid search, and connected TV (CTV) command substantial portions of advertisers' media plans, and winning a share of that spending will require more than offering another way to buy ads on those channels.