Resale platform Depop launched its biggest US marketing campaign to date as it looks to expand its audience beyond its core Gen Z user base and capitalize on surging demand for secondhand goods. Growing global demand for resale presents challenges and opportunities—both for marketplaces that trade in secondhand goods, like Depop and eBay, as well as for traditional retailers.

Old Navy is venturing deeper into beauty. The Gap Inc. unit will begin selling its own branded beauty products this fall, alongside an expanded selection of items from brands like e.l.f. and Mario Badescu, per The Wall Street Journal. Old Navy’s beauty expansion is a bold bet, given the enormous number of brands already in the market and the increasing ranks of retailers hoping to benefit from resilient beauty demand.

The news: General Motors is tapping the brakes on electric vehicle production just after posting its best-ever month of EV sales in August. The automaker plans to scale back output of the Chevy Bolt and two Cadillac models as the federal $7,500 EV tax credit expires at the end of this month. “It will take several months for the market to normalize,” wrote Duncan Aldred, senior vice president and president, North America, in a blog post explaining the move. In the meantime, GM aims to avoid overproduction, anticipating a “smaller EV market for a while.” Our take: GM revived the Bolt to fill an unmet niche: affordable EVs. While the GOP tax and spending bill may narrow that opportunity, strong consumer interest suggests GM can still carve out meaningful gains—if it delivers a compelling value-for-money proposition.

The trend: In the wake of the US closing the de minimis loophole, several large Chinese ecommerce and logistics firms have been investing in European warehouses to offset US losses, per Bloomberg. Our take: The days of rapid growth for Chinese ecommerce companies may be over. Europe might soften the blow from US losses, but it is unlikely to replace them—especially given the weak economic outlooks in France and Germany.

The news: Target is offering select customers a free year subscription to its Target Circle 360 membership program if they spend $199 on qualifying purchases by September 20, per Modern Retail. The $99 per year membership program offers free same-day delivery from Target, Kroger, CVS, Petco, and other stores via Target’s Shipt service, along with early access to Target sales, exclusive discounts and deals, and an extended returns window. Our take: Target should borrow a page from Walmart and lean on partnerships to expand Circle 360. That could mean teaming up with companies like Burger King for perks or with credit card issuers like American Express to bundle free memberships. The real power of paid memberships isn’t just subscription revenues—it’s their stickiness. Amazon has shown that once customers pay for Prime, they try to maximize every perk—streaming, prescriptions, food delivery, free shipping—and the more they use, the more they spend. Nonmembers, by contrast, often plateau or pull back. If Target wants to keep pace, it needs to find ways to broaden Circle 360’s offerings.

American Eagle Outfitters’ bet on star power is helping the company recover from its sales slump. The retailer’s controversial campaign with Sydney Sweeney has been hugely successful, the company said, helping to boost brand awareness and drive shoppers to stores. Its recently announced collaboration with Travis Kelce also delivered an immediate sales bump. American Eagle’s celebrity-led marketing strategy is driving its recovery after a poor start to the year. By turning controversy into buzz, the brand’s campaigns have revived interest in its core products and expanded its appeal to a broader audience.

The forecasts: The holiday season may bring more gloom than cheer for retailers as consumers tighten spending amid economic uncertainty. Average per-person spend during the season is projected to fall 5.3% YoY to $1,552, PwC reports. That’s the first significant drop since the 2020 pandemic. Gen Z is leading the pullback, with their holiday budgets set to plunge 22.5% after soaring 37.4% in last year’s survey (their actual spending rose just 6%, per PwC’s card data). That reversal reflects the mounting pressure they face from a stagnant job market, rising fixed costs, and thin savings. One in 4 (25%) Gen Zers now say their finances are worse than a year ago, up from 17% in 2024. Tariffs may be amplifying the pullback. A July CivicScience survey found 54% of consumers under 30—along with 47% of all gift buyers—plan to buy fewer or cheaper gifts due to tariff concerns. While our forecast is somewhat brighter—we expect sales in November and December to grow 1.2% YoY—even that would mark the weakest holiday sales gain since we began tracking the metric in 2009. Our take: Retailers should meet consumers where they are this holiday season by offering budget-friendly choices such as smaller sizes, bundles, and gift sets, while also using loyalty programs to push their best customers to spend.

Macy’s better-than-expected Q2 marks “the beginning of a momentum change,” CEO Tony Spring told Bloomberg, as the struggling department store finds its footing ahead of the holiday season. Macy’s is in a better position than most of its department store peers, thanks to its investments in the customer experience and its luxury banners. However, recovery could prove fleeting should consumer sentiment worsen and shoppers balk at higher prices. To keep its momentum going, Macy’s will need to continue investing in the customer experience and look for ways to differentiate its luxury banners.

Amazon is ending its Prime Invitee program, which allowed members to share benefits outside of their households. The program will officially end on October 1. Amazon is relying on a tried-and-true tactic to boost memberships. While the retailer has several irons in the fire, including investments in rural delivery and grocery that it expects will increase Prime’s stickiness, it will take time for those initiatives to bear fruit. But an immediate account-sharing crackdown pays off right away.

Consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies are in turmoil as shifting food trends, cuts to government benefits, and inflation challenge their share of grocery spending, while organizational headwinds compound the pressures. The strain is forcing bold actions and inviting scrutiny. Kraft Heinz’s breakup makes clear that size and brand recognition alone are not enough to ensure consistent growth—even for a company whose portfolio contains such household staples as Kraft Mac & Cheese and Heinz ketchup. While cost cutting is paramount as tariffs add millions to companies’ operating costs, CPGs must balance efficiencies with product innovation to recover some of the sales lost to private labels.

The news: Modelo Especial and Corona maker Constellation Brands cut its full-year forecast, blaming weak consumer demand in a difficult macroeconomic environment. The slowdown has been most pronounced among its core Hispanic demographic, who are cutting back on high-end beer. Our take: At the start of the year, Hispanic consumers looked like a growth engine—they accounted for one-fifth of the US population, $2.8 trillion in purchasing power, and outsize influence in categories from consumer packaged goods to food and beverage. But the Trump administration’s tariffs and mass deportations have chilled this momentum, with roughly 1 in 5 (21% of) Hispanic consumers report having felt unsafe in their local market due to their ethnicity, per The Asian American Foundation. Companies that banked heavily on Hispanic spending may now find that bet falling short.

Kraft Heinz will split into two companies, spinning off its slower-growing grocery unit—home to Oscar Mayer, Kraft Singles, and Lunchables. The remaining business will focus on faster-growing products such as Heinz ketchup, Philadelphia cream cheese, and Kraft Mac & Cheese, along with its sauces and condiments. Kraft Heinz’s breakup shows the risks of CPG megamergers, especially given how quickly consumers’ tastes can change. Once prominent brands like Lunchables and Kraft Singles are rapidly losing value as more shoppers avoid ultra-processed foods and artificial dyes, while the company’s bloat has made it challenging to stay current with food trends.

The news: McDonald’s will reintroduce Extra Value Meals on September 8. The combo meals will deliver about 15% savings compared with buying items separately. Our take: While McDonald’s delivered better-than-expected results in Q2, including 2.5% same-store sales growth, most of its gains came from higher prices. To build momentum, the brand must shift consumer perception, not just raise prices. Bringing back the Extra Value Meal is a step in that direction.

Nike, H&M, and Louis Vuitton will see their share of the global apparel market fall this year, according to a report by GlobalData. Meanwhile, adidas, Shein, Uniqlo, and Skechers will be the biggest winners as shifting trends and tariffs reshape the apparel industry. This year’s apparel winners share two key traits: agility in responding to consumer trends and the ability to offer products that are either affordable or that shoppers deem to be worth the expense. These factors are emerging as critical competitive advantages, especially amid economic and tariff pressures.

US beauty shoppers are becoming more price conscious, even as overall spending continues to increase. The lipstick effect may have lost some of its punch, but it continues to support steady beauty sales. We expect US cosmetics and beauty sales to grow a relatively sedate 2.4% this year on strength in the hair and skincare categories.

The trend: Retail layoffs have surged 249% in the first seven months of the year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas—and more cuts are likely to come as tariffs squeeze margins. Our take: Layoffs at large prominent retailers like Nike, Kroger, and Best Buy are a clear signal of what’s ahead. Staff cuts at these industry leaders suggest the sector is bracing for weaker consumer demand and persistent margin pressure. If the strongest players are retreating, weaker chains are likely to follow. These moves may prove the canary in the coal mine for a broader retail reset.

The situation: Dollar General, Amazon, and Walmart are on a collision course as each races to speed up rural ecommerce deliveries and win loyalty in a market ripe for growth. Our take: Dollar General, Amazon, and Walmart are pushing hard into rural ecommerce because the growth potential is too big to ignore. The retailers that can pair speed with convenience will be best positioned to lock in lasting loyalty.

The situation: Best Buy’s comparable sales rose 1.6% in Q2, its fastest pace in three years, driven by gains in gaming, computing, and mobile phones. A major boost came from the high-profile launch of Nintendo Switch 2, which pushed June sales up nearly 10%—the retailer’s best month since March 2021, per Bloomberg Second Measure, which tracks US debit and credit transactions. Our take: Best Buy is experimenting to reignite growth. Earlier this month it rolled out a third-party marketplace to broaden its assortment and began testing a store-within-a-store partnership with Ikea, positioning its appliances inside Ikea kitchens and laundry rooms. While neither move is likely to be a game-changer, in today’s tough environment, even small wins matter. Still, to spark lasting growth, Best Buy may need to augment these moves with bolder bets in services and subscriptions.

The US consumer is in good shape, according to the CEOs of Dick’s Sporting Goods and Urban Outfitters—despite a recent dip in confidence and tariff fears. Urban Outfitters’ and Dick’s Sporting Goods’ confidence in the health of the consumer shows that despite the strain of tariffs and uncertainty, shoppers remain willing to spend on products that they feel are worth the investment.

The backdrop: The EU’s two largest economies face different but converging risks. Germany’s economy contracted 0.3% in Q2—worse than the preliminary -0.1% estimate—as manufacturing slumped after a temporary surge in US orders aimed at dodging tariffs, per Destatis. French Prime Minister François Bayrou will seek a vote of confidence in the National Assembly on September 8, a move likely to topple the government and inject fresh uncertainty into an economy heavily reliant on consumer spending. A political crisis could even push France into recession, Carrefour SA CEO Alexandre Bompard warned, per Bloomberg. Our take: While German households are pulling back amid economic gloom, French consumers have so far kept growth afloat. But if political turmoil erodes confidence, the two largest markets could synchronize into a broader slowdown. That would leave retailers with limited room to offset weakness, forcing many to lean on discounting, cost control measures, and/or value-driven formats to sustain sales.