Pinterest is making a bigger push for CPG dollars with its latest ad format. The company is introducing “where to buy” links to make standard product image ads shoppable, allowing CPG advertisers to direct shoppers to preferred retailers where items are in stock and receive valuable purchase intent data. Pinterest’s play could prove profitable as CPGs invest in marketing to win over wary consumers. The company’s young user base, ability to inspire consumers to take action, and increasing role in product discovery all position it to benefit as advertisers focus on channels most likely to drive sales.

Two years after its US debut, TikTok Shop has become a dominant force in social commerce by turning discovery into conversion, with nearly half of its American user base expected to make purchases in 2025. While livestream shopping initially gained traction, its appeal quickly faded as US consumers resisted scheduled shopping events, unlike in China. Instead, TikTok Shop’s growth has been fueled by short, authentic creator content, which now drives two-thirds of its revenues and has attracted more than 184,000 sellers. It seems increasingly clear that TikTok Shop’s strength lies in its creator-driven, recommendation-based model rather than putting a fresh spin on QVC-style livestreams.

Kroger raised its full-year core sales outlook for the second time in 2025, now expecting same-store sales growth of 2.7% to 3.4%, as demand for low-cost essentials remains strong among budget-conscious shoppers. The grocer’s Q2 results topped expectations for comparable sales and earnings, supported by growth in fresh food, ecommerce, and pharmacy, though total revenue narrowly missed analyst estimates. Following the collapse of its Albertsons merger, Kroger has prioritized profitability through store closures, job cuts, and online margin improvements while doubling down on private labels, promotions, and value-driven initiatives to defend market share against discount rivals like Aldi, Lidl, and Trader Joe’s.

Confidence among higher-income consumers is rising, boosting their desire to spend on premium airline tickets, luxury goods, and everything in between. Retailers are rushing to premiumize, targeting higher-income households with the means and willingness to spend. But these shoppers are discriminating: Companies looking to earn their spending must deliver products and experiences that meet their high standards—and prepare for the possibility of buyer’s remorse.

RaceTrac will acquire sandwich chain Potbelly in a $566 million cash deal expected to close in Q4, with both brands continuing to operate separately. The acquisition boosts RaceTrac’s foodservice offerings at a time when convenience-store meals are driving growth, accounting for nearly 28% of in-store sales in 2024. For Potbelly, going private could accelerate its ambitious plan to expand to 2,000 shops while avoiding public market pressures. The move is a strategic play in the convenience-store foodservice arms race, positioning RaceTrac against competitors like 7-Eleven and Wawa in the battle for meal-focused customers.

Weak consumer sentiment in Europe is hurting fast fashion sales, with both Primark and Zara owner Inditex reporting slowdowns. The challenging environment in Europe increasingly favors Shein and Temu, whose ability to undercut competitors on price and deliver a steady stream of trendy products positions them to take more fast fashion share. But as in the US, both companies could fall afoul of geopolitical tensions as European governments raise concerns about Chinese overcapacity—and President Trump pushes the EU to implement 100% tariffs on China imports.

Holiday sales forecasts for 2025 show wide disparities, with Deloitte projecting slower growth at 2.9%–3.4%, Bain at 4%, and PwC warning of a 5% drop in average spending. Ecommerce is expected to grow, but at a more modest pace than recent years. A cooling labor market, persistent inflation, and weak consumer sentiment weigh heavily on outlooks, especially for lower- and middle-income households, whose spending power lags behind wealthier groups benefiting from wage growth and asset gains. Our view aligns with PwC’s caution, stressing that retailers should prioritize value-driven promotions, loyalty incentives, and strategic October campaigns to navigate an uneven season.

China’s deflation shows no signs of going away. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.4% YoY in August, more than expected, as the country struggles through its third straight year of slumping prices. With US trade talks yet to yield definitive results, Beijing will have to move from lip service to direct action on the country’s economic problems. But in the meantime, retailers must gird themselves for drawn-out, costly price wars—and make sure they stay attuned to the changing needs, preferences, and desires of Chinese consumers.

Amazon is investing $25 million in Colombian delivery app Rappi through a convertible note that could give it up to a 12% stake, signaling a push to strengthen its last-mile delivery capabilities across Latin America. With Rappi’s 35 million users, rapid “Turbo” delivery service, and superapp ecosystem, Amazon hopes to challenge Mercado Libre. While the partnership could expand Amazon’s reach from Mexico to Chile, it faces stiff competition: Mercado Libre is investing $13.2 billion this year alone, fueling a projected 22.7% sales jump and expanding its commanding market share.

Retailers are rolling out Halloween merchandise earlier than ever, hoping to entice cautious shoppers with unique seasonal products. Target is offering over 1,500 new items, including limited-edition Stanley cups, while Home Depot and Lowe’s push oversized animatronics and quirky skeletons. Build-A-Bear is already seeing strong sales from themed plushies, and Spirit Halloween is betting on immersive store experiences. Despite economic uncertainty, 75% of US adults plan to shop for holiday-themed goods, and retailers that imported early may benefit from avoiding looming tariffs that could sharply raise costume and mask prices.

Magnum Ice Cream is optimistic about boosting growth and profitability following its planned split from Unilever, projecting 3%–5% organic sales growth from 2026 and steady margin expansion. With a 21% share of the global ice cream market and a €500 million cost-savings initiative, the company is well-positioned to leverage shifting consumer preferences. Magnum plans to appeal to GLP-1 users by marketing its products as calorie-efficient, higher-protein snacks while also reducing sugar and additives. By narrowing its focus, Magnum joins other CPG players in streamlining operations to stay competitive against rising private-label alternatives.

Higher-income shoppers are driving higher return rates in 2025, with a 5.3% rate compared to 3.7% for lower-income consumers, according to Bank of America data. Analysts suggest this stems from wealthier buyers’ heavier discretionary spending, speculative purchases, and even wardrobing to test styles. Fraud is also a factor, with one in four higher-income shoppers engaging in first-party fraud during the holidays versus just 11% of lower-income peers. While retailers often look to affluent consumers for growth, their elevated returns create added costs, pushing companies toward AR try-on tools and stronger fraud detection instead of stricter policies.

Nike and Under Armour are leaning on the star power of LeBron James and Steph Curry to restore flagging sales in China and stay culturally relevant. Their ongoing struggles in the region show that brands can no longer expect to coast on their reputations to win over global customers—especially now, as US trade policies sour relations with even its closest allies.

Sam’s Club is targeting a major ecommerce expansion, aiming to grow digital sales from 18% to at least 40% of total revenues by leveraging Walmart’s supply chain and new digital tools. Recent updates include a redesigned website and app with flexible fulfillment options, larger media-rich product pages, and expanded club-fulfilled delivery. The retailer is testing larger fulfillment spaces and adding online experiences like pizza delivery to drive engagement. With 40% of members using Scan & Go, Sam’s Club is streamlining in-store trips while building a stronger digital ecosystem, boosting ad opportunities and positioning itself against Costco and other rivals.

New data shows Trump’s tariff-driven trade policies are disrupting global shipments and straining US manufacturers just as the holiday season approaches. Global postal traffic to the US plunged 81% after closure of the “de minimis” loophole, while China’s exports to the US fell 33% year over year. Despite promises of revitalizing US manufacturing, factory activity has contracted for six consecutive months and employment has slipped. With holiday sales growth now forecast at just 1.2% instead of 3.9%, retailers face weaker demand, higher costs, and limited product selection, signaling prolonged pressure on consumers and the broader economy.

Temu’s US business is slowly recovering, despite tariff pressures and the end of de minimis. The ending of de minimis for all sellers—not just those based in China—coupled with higher tariff costs for virtually all retailers has enabled Temu to maintain its value proposition and appeal to bargain-hunting shoppers. That also applies to Shein, which is seeing shopping frequency, app downloads, site visits, and search interest above 2024 levels. The company’s recoveries show how important price is to US consumers—and how receptive they are to the stream of flash sales, discounts, and gamified rewards that Shein and Temu offer.

Lululemon athetica warned the end of the de minimis exemption will be more damaging to its bottom line than tariffs alone. De minimis’ abrupt end is pressuring retailers’ supply chains and their operating models. In addition to tariff-proofing their manufacturing strategies, companies that relied on duty-free shipments to the US must now also invest in local fulfillment and face the full weight of tariff costs. While companies are looking to offset some of those expenses by reducing operating costs, most of the burden will ultimately be passed onto consumers—which could curb demand heading into the all-important holiday season.

The US economy is showing signs of strain just as retailers prepare for the holiday season, with weak job growth, rising unemployment, and soft consumer sentiment adding to inflation and tariff pressures. August saw only 22,000 new jobs created, while job cuts rose and openings fell to a two-year low, underscoring a fragile labor market. Consumers remain pessimistic, tightening their spending plans despite potential Fed rate cuts. Our outlook is cautious: holiday retail sales are projected to grow just 1.2%, forcing retailers to lean heavily on promotions and loyalty-driven discounts to capture demand without eroding margins.

Trading card mania is proving to be a profitable tailwind for Target, eBay, and Walmart, as high-profile releases and collector enthusiasm drive spending. The market for toys is increasingly being driven by demand for collectibles like Labubus and trading cards. That demand is strongest among adults, who see these items both as fun indulgences and investment opportunities.

Value-focused grocers are aggressively expanding as cost-conscious consumers seek affordable options, with Aldi set to open 225 US stores in 2025, Trader Joe’s adding 41, and Lidl continuing steady growth in key metro areas. Inflation pressures and lingering COVID-era costs are fueling a surge in private-label demand, which grew 4.4% year over year compared with 1.1% for national brands. These chains’ differentiated private-label strategies are driving above-average foot traffic, underscoring their appeal. The takeaway for competitors is clear: prioritize value while building unique private-label lines that strengthen margins and deepen customer loyalty.