The US economy grew 3.8% year-over-year in Q2, its fastest pace in nearly two years, driven by stronger consumer spending, according to new government data. While spending resilience supports the Atlanta Fed’s 3.3% growth forecast for Q3, cracks are showing as retail hiring cools and risks of a government shutdown loom. Uneven unemployment rates and tariff-driven price pressures add strain, making holiday sales particularly vulnerable. We believe growth will slow sharply to 1.2% from last year’s 4.3%.

Starbucks said it would lay off about 900 workers and close 1% of its US and Canada stores—including its flagship Seattle Roastery—as part of a $1 billion restructuring plan. Turning Starbucks around was always going to take time, due to its sheer size as well as the magnitude of its problems. Niccol’s strategy banks on restoring the chain’s reputation for stellar customer service—an advantage that could help it stand out in a space increasingly oriented toward convenience. But the company remains vulnerable to upstarts like 7 Brew and Dutch Bros that are more tuned into beverage trends.

Target is pushing to reclaim its place as a premier destination for affordable fashion. The retailer is turning its small-format SoHo store into a design concept that showcases its apparel and beauty assortment, the company told Axios. Target also relaunched its Target Style Instagram account earlier this month, which will offer up both outfit inspiration and shoppable content. Target’s ability to regain its fashion authority goes hand-in-hand with its ability to reverse its declining fortunes.

Albertsons added a travel perk to its loyalty program, joining retailers that are extending membership benefits beyond core offerings in a bid to boost sign-ups and engagement. Loyalty programs increasingly serve dual functions for retailers. Not only do they help reward and retain customers, they are also an invaluable source of consumer data that can power companies’ retail media strategies. By enhancing the value of its loyalty program—and extending those perks to free members—Albertsons can make inroads with both customers and advertisers.

Aldi will put its name on every private label product it stocks—over 90% of its assortment—as part of the largest packaging refresh in company history. Aldi’s decision to stamp its name across nearly every product it sells reflects a fundamental shift in how shoppers perceive private labels. Once primarily chosen for their price point, private labels are now drawing consumers with quality, variety, and attractive packaging.

A growing share of consumers are integrating AI into their shopping journeys, with ChatGPT driving nearly 21% of Walmart’s referral traffic in August and playing a major role for Etsy, Target, and eBay. GenAI is now the second-biggest source of product recommendations, with trust in AI shopping tools soaring from 46% to 86% in just months. Retailers are experimenting with frictionless AI-driven checkout, while Salesforce predicts AI tools will drive 21% of global holiday orders this year. Amazon, however, is blocking AI crawlers to protect its ecosystem, a risky strategy that may drive shoppers to rivals.

Retailers are projected to add fewer than 500,000 seasonal jobs in the final quarter of 2025, the weakest holiday hiring since 2009 and an 8% drop from last year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The slowdown reflects a broader labor market slump that recently led the Fed to cut rates, compounding concerns about rising prices and weak consumer sentiment. With forecasts pointing to sluggish holiday sales growth, lean staffing could further hurt retailers by creating long lines and poor service at a time when customer experience is critical.

Amazon will sell products from its Whole Foods private labels in Singapore, a country where it has no physical stores, per Bloomberg. That experiment could be repeated in other markets, giving the retailer an opening to grow its grocery business without investing in brick-and-mortar retail.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lifted its outlook for global GDP growth this year citing tariff-related inventory frontloading, AI investments, and Beijing’s stimulus measures. But this resilience may soon fade: Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026, as tariffs and uncertainty begin to take their toll.

Spirit Airlines’ financial troubles exposed weaknesses in the ultra-low-cost airline model. The carrier has entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection twice in the past year, most recently in late August, and is aggressively cutting costs to rightsize operations. The ultra low-cost model isn’t dead—carriers such as Allegiant and Sun Country Airlines are still profitable—but it’s in trouble. Should costs increase and middle- and lower-income consumers continue to cut back, bargain-hunting travelers may face much higher fares as airlines replace economy seats with pricier ones.

Toys R Us will open 10 new flagship stores and 20 seasonal holiday shops by year-end, doubling down on its return to physical retail. If the retailer can consistently find ways to make in-store shopping fun, its strong name recognition and nostalgic pull should help it recapture meaningful market share.

The holiday sales season is set to begin in earnest in October, with a number of retailers rolling out events to compete with Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days. Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Kohl's will all run sales that coincide with Amazon's October event, putting them in a better position to capitalize on shoppers' desire to get a head start on holiday shopping.

Rival marketplaces are stepping up efforts to chip away at Amazon’s dominance by offering sellers lower fees, operational support, and omnichannel opportunities. AliExpress is cutting shipping costs in Europe and Latin America, Temu is aggressively promoting in the US, Shein is leveraging its manufacturing network through Xcelerator, and Walmart is blending in-store displays with AI-driven marketplace tools. Meanwhile, Amazon remains the giant, expanding logistics and seller services like Multi-Channel Fulfillment and Buy with Prime. While Amazon’s marketplace share still leads, projections show a gradual slip, signaling more power and leverage shifting toward sellers.

Molson Coors has named 24-year veteran Rahul Goyal as its next CEO, tapping a leader with deep experience across IT, finance, and strategy, as well as a track record of diversifying beyond beer through partnerships with Coca-Cola and acquisitions in the non-alcohol space. Goyal takes the helm at a turbulent time, with alcohol consumption in the U.S. at historic lows and health concerns driving more consumers away from drinking. Political and economic pressures further complicate the outlook, leaving Molson Coors with seasoned leadership but an uncertain path forward in a challenging market.

Shoppers will be able to buy the much-hyped Nike-Skims collaboration starting Friday, seven months after the partnership was announced. While an unusual pairing on paper, the collaboration between Nike and Skims plays to both companies’ strengths, and positions the new brand to become an athletic powerhouse. The collection’s versatility and innovation are likely to appeal to consumers who want both performance and style from their clothing—as well as those who lean more heavily toward either.

Saks Global is in talks to sell a 49% stake in luxury department store Bergdorf Goodman for about $1 billion, per The Wall Street Journal. Selling nearly half of Bergdorf Goodman to an outside investor could ease Saks Global’s liquidity pressures, but it doesn’t address the bigger challenge: The retailer lacks a compelling strategy for growth. The company has not articulated how it will differentiate its department store banners so that they do not compete directly, which is the case in about a dozen markets.

With return volumes projected to climb 5.9% this year—pushing up costs—retailers are piling on restrictions to stem the flow. But those roadblocks carry risk since shoppers consider easy returns as table stakes and most will walk away if the process feels like a hassle.

Industry KPI data from Placer.ai reveals a clear divide in retail foot traffic trends. Essentials-focused merchants and dollar stores are maintaining growth while discretionary-heavy sectors like department stores and housing-related chains fall behind. Understanding foot traffic trends is critical for brands and retailers to understand where growth—and risk—will lie in the coming months. Necessities will keep grocers and discounters in demand, while discretionary-focused chains must offer value, cut prices, and explore adjacent business lines—such as off-price formats or supply services—to keep sales coming.

Shein is giving fashion brands access to its apparel manufacturing network—in exchange for setting up shop on its marketplace, Bloomberg reported. Shein’s decision to monetize its manufacturing and fulfillment services is necessary as it looks for more sustainable models of growth. Its insistence on linking Xcelerator to selling on its marketplace could also be beneficial in the long run. More third-party sellers means more inventory as well as the potential for ad revenues, should Shein follow that path.

Tapestry and Ralph Lauren are planning for growth in an otherwise tepid luxury market. Tapestry expects mid-single-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2027 and 2028. Longer term, it aims to turn Coach into a $10 billion brand, up from $5.6 billion last year. Ralph Lauren also has its sights on becoming a $10 billion brand by decade’s end. Its latest forecast calls for mid-single-digit sales growth over the next three years—a target executives acknowledged as conservative but aligned with its goal of sustainable expansion. With pricing power waning, storytelling and product innovation are crucial for reengaging disaffected consumers. Tapestry and Ralph Lauren show that combining brand resonance, strong core products with a disciplined pricing strategy, and an inclusive approach to luxury can deliver sustainable growth in a challenging market.