Amazon remains in negotiations to extend its USPS partnership but is reassessing its delivery strategy after learning the Postal Service may hold a reverse auction that would require major shippers to bid for facility access. The unexpected shift injects uncertainty into Amazon’s network at a time when it is rapidly expanding Amazon Logistics and investing heavily in rural delivery. Because Amazon accounts for a sizable share of USPS revenue, a split would significantly strain the agency and could accelerate Amazon’s rise as a competing carrier, reshaping how retailers meet growing consumer expectations for fast, reliable delivery.

Dollar and discount retailers are gaining share as low prices draw more middle- and high-income shoppers. Dollar Tree added 3 million households to its customer count in Q3, most earning over $100,000, while Dollar General saw higher-income customer growth and broader market-share gains. Five Below’s strong Q3 comps reflected new shoppers and bigger baskets. All three raised full-year outlooks. But much of their growth stems from higher prices, not traffic, and core low-income shoppers remain strained. To sustain momentum, retailers must improve store experience and appearance, ensure pricing accuracy, and invest in convenience through delivery partnerships.

Kroger lowered the top end of its full-year sales outlook as rising price sensitivity among lower- and middle-income shoppers weighs on spending. Consumers’ growing focus on value is leading to more trips, smaller baskets, and greater reliance on promotions and private labels. These patterns are driving Kroger to intensify price cuts and promotions to keep shoppers from trading down.

US employers have announced over 1.1 million job cuts this year, the most since 2020 and a 54% increase YoY, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The report, alongside similarly soft numbers from ADP, is unlikely to stem the decline in US consumer confidence. While the end of the government shutdown eased some anxieties, households remain concerned about the weakening labor market and rising inflation. These concerns could weigh on holiday spending by pushing shoppers to reduce their budgets and prioritize essentials.

American Eagle’s Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce campaigns helped get eyes on the brand but failed to deliver the sales lift analysts were expecting. The two campaigns combined generated over 44 billion impressions, but comparable sales for the American Eagle brand rose just 1% YoY in the quarter, missing expectations for 2.1% growth. Ultimately, American Eagle’s record Q3 revenues owed less to the high-visibility Sweeney ad and more to strong execution at its Aerie brand, where comparable sales rose 11%. While buzzy celebrity-led campaigns can help restore brand relevance, their impact will be fleeting if companies’ merchandising and product availability fall short.

San Francisco’s city attorney sued 10 major foodmakers, including Kraft Heinz, PepsiCo, and Mondelez, over their production and marketing of ultraprocessed foods. This marks the first governmental lawsuit over ultraprocessed products, escalating the regulatory and public pressure food companies face to cut additives and make their assortments healthier. Foodmakers will need to change their manufacturing and marketing practices as public opinion turns against ultraprocessed foods and governments—both local and federal—begin to exert more pressure.

Midmarket department stores entered the holiday season with surprising momentum after strong Q3 results, prompting Macy’s, Kohl’s, and Dillard’s to raise their outlooks. But the improvement comes amid a strained consumer environment as low- and middle-income shoppers remain cautious. Softer Black Friday traffic and growing shifts toward off-price chains signal ongoing pressure. The results suggest that despite signs of progress, these retailers must sharpen their value proposition to compete more effectively for value-seeking consumers in the months ahead.

TikTok Shop’s US GMV exceeded $500 million from Black Friday through Cyber Monday, fueled by a nearly 50% jump in shoppers and rapid momentum in livestream commerce. Brands and sellers using livestreams saw 84% sales growth as viewers engaged with more than 760,000 sessions generating 1.6 billion views, a trend amplified by major influencers like Kim Kardashian. Other platforms, including Whatnot, also posted strong holiday results, signaling growing comfort with live buying. The data points to TikTok Shop’s accelerating scale and suggests it is well positioned to capture a larger share of holiday spending as more major brands join the platform.

Amazon is testing ultra-fast delivery for fresh groceries and other household essentials in some areas of Seattle and Philadelphia. The service, called Amazon Now, allows shoppers in eligible neighborhoods to receive thousands of items in 30 minutes or less. While Amazon continues to invest in its brick-and-mortar grocery business, enhancing its ecommerce initiatives appears to be taking precedence. Speeding up delivery could help Amazon extend its foothold in grocery while keeping shoppers wedded to its platform, but our forecast expects its share of digital grocery sales to dip as Walmart, pure-play grocers, and intermediary delivery platforms grow their piece of the pie.

Costco has filed suit against the Trump administration to secure the right to a full refund of the IEEPA tariffs it paid this year, tying its claim to a pending Supreme Court ruling on whether Trump had authority to impose the duties. The company also seeks to pause tariff collection as the case unfolds, citing a December 15 liquidation deadline that could make the payments unrecoverable. With businesses stuck in prolonged uncertainty and others filing similar protective suits, Costco is taking a pragmatic, defensive step to shield itself from a costly legal limbo.

Shein and Temu are under intensifying global scrutiny as US, European, and Chinese authorities tighten oversight of Chinese-affiliated ecommerce platforms. Texas is investigating Shein over forced labor and safety concerns, while Sen. Tom Cotton is urging a federal probe into IP theft at both companies. The pressure extends abroad, with Shein’s French marketplace suspended and China demanding sales data to combat tax evasion. With de minimis advantages eroding and consumer trust wavering, these platforms must strengthen marketplace quality and local partnerships to remain competitive amid rising regulatory risk.

Cyber Monday generated a record $14.25 billion in US online sales, rising 7.1% year over year and slightly surpassing expectations despite a Shopify outage. Strong momentum carried through the Cyber Five period, highlighted by a 9.1% Black Friday jump, while inflation steered shoppers toward categories like electronics, apparel, and furniture. BNPL usage hit an all-time high with $1.03 billion in spending, and mobile devices drove most purchases at 57.5%. The season’s performance underscores resilient demand but also a more price-sensitive consumer increasingly reliant on value and flexible payment options.

Walmart finalized its Vizio acquisition one year ago, a move that clearly telegraphed its advertising ambitions and positioned it to be a dominant retail media player. Vizio considerably strengthens Walmart’s pitch to advertisers by giving it more opportunities to get in front of engaged audiences and providing more data for better targeting and measurement. Walmart’s newfound CTV capabilities also help establish the retailer as a full-funnel ad solution, increasing its appeal to both endemic and nonendemic brands.

Shoppers spent over $75 million on live shopping platform Whatnot during Black Friday, the company told EMARKETER. That’s three times last year’s total, underscoring the medium’s swift ascendance and pointing to rising consumer comfort with the format. Livestream commerce’s ability to blur the lines between shopping and entertainment is helping to drive adoption across generations. We expect US livestream ecommerce sales to rise by nearly 50% this year to $14.64 billion, while the number of buyers will jump by 21.5%. Platforms, retailers, and brands that lean into the entertainment and educational aspects of live shopping will be best equipped to capture—and keep—shoppers’ attention.

Brands are ramping up GEO efforts to ensure maximum visibility this holiday season. Tactics include flooding the internet with content; paying influencers to post on TikTok, YouTube, and Facebook; and building entire websites visible only to AI scrapers. If that fails, companies have more opportunities to pay for advertising within AI search results as Walmart, Amazon, and Google ramp up efforts to monetize their AI tools. GEO is a strategic imperative for brands looking to remain discoverable as more shopping research migrates to AI platforms. Given the opportunity, companies should also be experimenting with AI search ads to see how shoppers interact with the format and whether these promos drive purchases or reduce trust in AI recommendations.

Households with GLP-1 users could account for 35% of food and beverage sales by 2030, up from 23% today, per Circana. Rising GLP-1 usage is reshaping grocery spending, with profound implications for foodmakers and grocers. As GLP-1s grow more accessible—thanks to microdosing, efforts to make the drugs more affordable, and the pending release of a weight-loss pill—their impact will be more deeply felt beyond food to sectors including apparel, wellness, beauty, and restaurants.

Reports of Gen Z’s sluggish holiday spending may be exaggerated. Brands like Edikted, Kendra Scott, and Bath & Body Works—favorites of the cohort—saw heavier foot traffic during Black Friday, per Bloomberg. The cohort will account for a greater share of Cyber Five spending this year—18%—while all other generations will see their share decline, per Deloitte. With the pressures on Gen Z spending set to persist beyond the holiday season, brands and retailers will have to work hard to make their case to the increasingly cash-strapped cohort.

Generative AI is rapidly transforming how travelers plan and book trips, with usage climbing from 8% in 2023 to 24% this year and projected to reach 65% by next year. As tools like Google’s AI Mode and OpenAI’s Instant Checkout streamline itinerary building and booking, they introduce new price pressures for major travel platforms while consumers increasingly book directly with airlines, hotels, and rental companies. With many travelers still forming habits around AI, we believe travel brands have a prime opportunity to strengthen loyalty by integrating with leading platforms and offering seamless rewards across both direct and AI-assisted bookings.

A worsening macro environment is pushing major retailers and restaurants to close locations as rising costs and shifting consumer habits erode profitability, prompting cuts from Yankee Candle, Carter’s, American Signature, and Wendy’s. Industry data shows elevated vacancy rates and slower net absorption ahead, though new construction remains limited, helping support occupancy. While bankruptcy-driven closures have recently eased, the sector still faces meaningful pressure. Even so, we expect physical retail sales to grow 2.8% next year, offering a stabilizing force that should help sustain space demand despite continued consolidation.

Black Friday 2025 sales outperformed expectations as consumers, motivated by steep discounts, drove 4.1% retail growth and a 10.4% jump in ecommerce despite ongoing inflation pressures. Shoppers responded strongly to major deals across toys, electronics, apparel, and TVs, even as overall enthusiasm for the day slipped and higher prices weighed on order volumes. Mobile dominated online activity, BNPL usage grew, and genAI-powered shopping surged, boosting conversion rates for retailers using the technology. The results suggest consumers are cautious yet still willing to spend selectively, signaling a steadier holiday season than anticipated.