The forecast: Adobe Analytics expects ecommerce sales to rise 5.3% YoY to $253.4 billion this holiday season, a significant slowdown against the 8.7% growth from November 1 to December 31 last year.

That’s broadly in line with our forecast, which expects online sales to decelerate to 4.2%, as well as most other projections that call for a cooling labor market, rising prices, and weak consumer sentiment to weigh on holiday spending.

A sharp focus on value: Retailers are expected to lean heavily on discounts, with Adobe forecasting markdowns of up to 28%, roughly matching last year’s deep discounting.

• Electronics discounts are projected to peak at 28% (vs. 30.1% in 2024), toys at 27% (vs. 28%), apparel at 25% (vs. 23.2%), TVs at 23% (vs. 24.2%), computers at 23% (vs. 22.8%), sporting goods at 19% (vs. 19.5%), appliances at 18% (vs. 19.2%), and furniture at 18% (vs. 19%).
• Those markdowns won’t necessarily spark a race to the bottom. Some retailers that frontloaded holiday orders will likely use aggressive pricing to encourage shoppers to trade up to higher-ticket items. For example, the share of units sold for the priciest products is expected to jump 56% in sporting goods, 52% in electronics, 39% in appliances, 32% in personal care, and 26% in tools and home improvement. That trend, however, won’t hold across the board; Adobe expects declines in groceries (down 3%) and furniture (down 8%) as shoppers favor lower-priced options in those categories.
• Adobe also sees an uptick in home-focused purchases as consumers take advantage of deals to upgrade their living spaces. Online sales are projected to soar from January–August 2025 averages by 1,060% for power tools, 1,050% for home security products, 915% for TVs, 910% for refrigerators/freezers, and 615% for smart home devices.

AI-powered shopping and social influence: Online shopping behaviors are rapidly evolving, with two major forces reshaping how consumers discover and decide what to buy this season:

• AI-powered assistants are redefining the path to purchase. More than one-third of US consumers have used AI tools for online shopping—most often for product research (53%), recommendations (40%), deal-finding (36%), and gift inspiration (30%). Adobe expects AI-driven traffic to US retail sites to surge 520% YoY, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.
• Social commerce is accelerating. Adobe projects online sales from social channels to climb 51% YoY, a sharp leap from 5% growth in 2024, with affiliate and influencer-driven sales also rising 14%.

Our first take: This holiday season is shaping up to be challenging, with nearly every forecaster expecting a significant slowdown in ecommerce growth as shoppers become more selective and price-sensitive. Even so, there’s still plenty of opportunity for retailers that lean into value by offering the right products at the right price at the right time.

To get there, retailers will need to stay sharp and flexible, striking the right balance between discounts and profitability, between must-haves and small indulgences, and between functionality and innovation. With growth slowing, success will go to those who make value stand out—not just drop their prices.

This is our immediate perspective. We’re actively developing this story throughout the day with more research and data from the EMARKETER database. Our in-depth analysis will be included in our client-only Briefings. Non-clients can click here to get a demo of our full platform and coverage.

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