Store brands grew 3.7% while national brands lagged at 1.1%, widening the value gap for inflation-hit shoppers.

Retailers with a well-defined identity delivered strong growth in 2025.

Foot traffic trends softened retail in Q3, a potentially troubling sign for holiday spending, according to our Industry KPI data from Placer.ai. The four categories tracked—discount and dollar stores, grocers, department stores, and home improvement stores—had slower growth from July to September, providing more evidence that consumers are feeling the strain of higher living costs. The data points to a rocky year-end for department stores and home improvement retailers, which have struggled this year to overcome sluggish consumer sentiment and uneven spending. At the same time, retailers that offer necessities and can deliver clear value are positioned to win.

US inflation eased more than expected in November, with headline CPI rising 2.7% and core inflation slowing to 2.6%, but many highly visible essentials—including electricity, insurance, beef, and coffee—continue to climb much faster than the overall index. These increases are weighing on sentiment as wage gains cool and more households struggle to cover rising costs, leading to softer financial confidence and growing paycheck-to-paycheck pressures. With forecasts pointing to weaker real spending and looming jumps in healthcare premiums, easing inflation does little to offset the reality that household budgets remain under significant strain.

Nike is in the "middle innings" of a multiyear turnaround, making tangible progress in rebuilding its wholesale business and reigniting growth in North America, even as deeper challenges persist. Revenues and earnings topped expectations, with wholesale gains helping offset continued declines in Nike Direct and a sharp pullback in Greater China. That progress has come at a cost, however, as promotions and tariff headwinds weighed heavily on margins. With direct-to-consumer sales and China unlikely to rebound quickly, Nike’s recovery will depend on steady execution and patience as it works through lingering structural and demand-related pressures.

As rising food-away-from-home costs push diners to prioritize value, Darden Restaurants is gaining ground with compelling offers like Olive Garden’s $13.99 Never Ending Pasta Bowl and LongHorn’s budget-friendly lunch plates, which helped drive strong Q2 sales and foot traffic gains. Net sales rose to $3.10 billion and same-restaurant sales exceeded expectations, though higher beef costs pressured margins. With both Olive Garden and LongHorn outperforming and fine dining posting modest growth, Darden has raised its full-year sales outlook, reflecting confidence that its value-forward approach will keep resonating with cost-conscious consumers.

General Mills reports that lower- and middle-income consumers remain financially strained, driving more at-home eating and increased reliance on promotions while trimming discretionary purchases like wet dog food. In response, the company is boosting product innovation by 25% and sharpening pricing to compete with lower-cost alternatives, with early wins such as Cheerios Protein gaining meaningful market share. Despite a tough environment, General Mills outperformed expectations in FYQ2, a sign that its adaptive strategy is gaining traction, though our team notes that CPG brands must continue innovating and pricing smartly to maintain share amid ongoing consumer pressure.

Online return volumes dipped 2.5% YoY early in the holiday season, though momentum slowed after Cyber Week and a surge is still expected post-Christmas, consistent with retailers’ forecasts that returns will represent 15.8% of annual sales. To curb costly returns, merchants are improving product detail pages and adopting tools like virtual try-on, while many are also adding return fees—moves that risk dampening demand as shoppers grow wary of stricter policies. A smoother, more supportive returns experience remains critical, as most consumers hesitate to buy when returns seem difficult and reward retailers that make the process easy and fast.

UK holiday spending is expected to rise 3.5% this year, according to PwC, with average spending per shopper projected to increase 2.7%, driven in part by younger consumers planning to increase their budgets. Beneath the surface, however, the outlook is less robust. After accounting for inflation, sales volumes are likely to be flat or slightly negative, as most shoppers expect to spend the same amount as last year, and higher prices shape behavior. Tepid consumer confidence and rising living costs are pushing households to manage spending more carefully, a dynamic likely to carry over into 2026 and increase pressure on retailers to deliver clear value.

Consumer spending held up in October, despite broader signs of growing strain on lower- and middle-income consumers. Retail sales rose 3.5% YoY, according to the US Commerce Department. Control group sales—which exclude food services, autos, building materials stores, and gas stations, and are used to calculate GDP—increased 0.8% MoM, the biggest rise in four months. However, the US economy appears increasingly fragile. While spending is growing at a healthy pace for now—largely due to higher-income households with a greater capacity to absorb higher prices and a stronger appetite for discretionary purchases—a softening labor market and tariff-driven inflation could push consumers to pull back next year.

Home Depot introduced The Home Depot Creator Portal, a centralized hub that offers resources and earning opportunities for creators developing home improvement content. The creator portal is intended to inspire creators while giving them access to advertising opportunities with Home Depot and its extensive supplier network. More retailers are setting up their own creator platforms as they look to tap into influencer marketing and ensure relevance as more product discovery shifts to social media. Establishing a creator platform allows retailers to bring greater standardization and quality control to their influencer partnerships, while still taking advantage of all the opportunities that influencer marketing can offer.

Looma raised $10 million in Series B funding and a $3 million credit facility to expand its network of 7,000 in-store screens, which now reaches 27 million shoppers monthly across major grocers such as Kroger and H-E-B. Its recent rollout to 600 Kroger wine and spirits departments followed a multiyear test that boosted category sales and delivered strong returns for featured brands. Although in-store retail media is scaling more slowly than expected, grocery remains a key proving ground, with most retailers planning activations. Success will hinge on solutions that pair broad reach with measurable sales lift—an area where Looma’s early results stand out.

The global transition to electric vehicles is losing momentum as both policymakers and automakers scale back ambitions. The EU is retreating from its 2035 combustion-engine phaseout, while Ford is pausing F-150 Lightning production and redirecting resources toward hybrids after steep EV losses. Demand has softened as incentives expire in the US and Europe and regulatory pressure eases under the Trump administration. With affordability and range anxiety still major consumer hurdles, EV share is projected to slip to 6% next year, signaling a far slower transition than industry leaders once expected.

Albertsons Media Collective debuted an offsite ad capability that allows shoppers to add products, recipes, coupons, or other offers to their shopping carts. The format is currently available for display ads and shoppable content and will roll out to connected TV (CTV) and social media next year. Albertsons’ new click-to-cart functionality is one of several initiatives aimed at promoting “frictionless commerce,” which is designed to reduce the time between inspiration and purchase. A speedier, simpler path to purchase isn’t only useful for shoppers—it’s also a major selling point for CPG advertisers as they determine where to allocate their retail media budgets.

China’s economic malaise deepened in November. Retail sales rose just 1.3% YoY, well below analysts’ median forecast for 2.8% growth, despite blockbuster Singles Day promotions. Investment and industrial output also fell short of expectations, signaling greater caution from businesses and individuals as they grapple with trade and economic uncertainty. To succeed in this difficult environment, brands will need to localize their marketing and product strategies, be competitive on price, and invest in immersive experiences to draw shoppers in.

Destination XL and FullBeauty Brands plan to merge in early 2026, creating a unified inclusive-apparel retailer serving 34 million households and nearly 300 stores. The combined company aims to leverage shared customer insights, manufacturing scale, and complementary product expertise to deliver better fit, broader assortments, and a more cohesive omnichannel experience. The merger also targets $25 million in annual savings by 2027 through improved sourcing, organizational efficiencies, and cost reductions. With a large share of US adults needing inclusive sizing yet historically underserved, the deal positions the new entity to meet demand with more consistent, high-quality offerings at scale.

Temu’s new Shopify integration lets merchants manage listings, inventory, and fulfillment across more than 30 markets, positioning the platform to broaden its assortment and mitigate the impact of tightening global trade rules and de minimis closures. As governments introduce new barriers and regulators increase scrutiny in the US and EU, Temu is evolving from a low-cost disruptor into a more traditional marketplace. The move highlights how its next phase of growth depends on attracting and retaining sellers, streamlining cross-border operations, and competing on service and trust against established players like Amazon and Walmart.

Consumer spending stayed resilient in Q3, but widening gaps between high- and low-income households reshaped retail performance, with affluent shoppers driving growth while budget-constrained consumers cut back. Bank of America data shows most spending momentum came from middle- and higher-income groups, reflected in retailers’ earnings: Williams-Sonoma saw premium demand lift margins, while Pottery Barn lagged; off-price chains thrived as value-seeking surged; and Walmart and Amazon gained share as Target struggled with discretionary softness. Overall, the data points to a sharply diverging retail landscape heading into a holiday season poised to favor mass and off-price merchants.

Lululemon athletica’s CEO Calvin McDonald will relinquish his role on January 31, 2026 to an as-yet-unnamed successor. Whoever that person is will face the task of restoring the brand’s authority in a category it once dominated—particularly in North America, where sales have been stagnant or negative for seven straight quarters. Whoever takes the helm at lululemon should look to refocus the brand on its athleisure roots. The company needs to make sure that its core product lines are resonating with consumers before devoting significant resources into other categories like footwear, where it faces a tougher path to building credibility amid entrenched competition.

Shopify has introduced 150 updates, headlined by two major tools aimed at expanding reach and boosting conversions: an “agentic storefront” that lets consumers buy products directly through AI platforms like ChatGPT and a new Shopify Product Network that helps merchants fill product gaps via cross-store recommendations. The agentic storefront should give merchants an early advantage in AI-powered commerce, while the Product Network should boost conversions, and create new revenue streams without adding inventory or operational burdens.