The forecast: Despite tariff risks and geopolitical headwinds, Latin America’s retail ecommerce sales will surge 12.2% this year to $191.25 billion—a pace that’s 1.5 times faster than the global average, per our forecast. Easing inflation, stronger wage growth, and steady employment will sustain consumer spending.
- That momentum will make Latin America the world’s fastest-growing retail ecommerce market—its first time leading since 2021. We expect the region to hold that lead through 2027, before the Middle East and Africa overtake it the following year.
- Ecommerce penetration will deepen, with online sales topping 10% of total retail in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Uruguay by 2029.
Key markets: Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico will drive Latin America’s ecommerce growth, together accounting for 84.5% of regional retail ecommerce sales this year.
- Argentina is set for a strong rebound as macroeconomic conditions improve. After a year of hyperinflation, the economy is showing early recovery signs, though political and economic volatility remain risks. Retail ecommerce sales are expected to jump 58.2%—1.6 times faster than inflation—signaling real gains. This trajectory makes Argentina a market to watch despite ongoing challenges.
- In Brazil, online spending remains resilient despite economic pressures. Following a brief slowdown, the economy outperformed expectations, supported by easing inflation, low unemployment, and wage measures. Retail ecommerce sales will maintain double-digit growth through 2027, fueled by rising competition from Shopee, Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop. TikTok’s rapid gains underscore Brazil’s dynamic ecommerce landscape, which will expand 45.9% to $113.86 billion by 2029.
- In Mexico, retail ecommerce will reach 17.7% of total sales—surpassing the US (17.0%) for the first time next year. By 2029, Mexico will be one of just six countries worldwide to exceed 20% ecommerce penetration among the 67 markets we track, underscoring its position as a leading digital retail economy.
Significant challenges: “While the region faces no shortage of global headwinds, its economy has held steadier than expected,” said Matteo Ceurvels, EMARKETER principal analyst for Latin America and Spain.
- Tariffs are a cause for concern in an otherwise healthy retail ecommerce market. Nearly half (47%) of adults in Latin America believe US President Donald Trump’s economic policies will hurt their country’s economy, while more than a third (36%) anticipate a direct hit to their personal finances, according to May 2025 polling by Ipsos.
- Consumer sentiment is weakening. Slightly more than a third (35%) of adults in Latin America believe their country is headed in the right direction, per a September 2025 Ipsos survey, down from 40% a year earlier.
Our take: “Latin America’s ecommerce outlook is strong, but success will hinge on how quickly retailers and brands can adapt as politics and economics keep shifting,” Ceurvels said. To stay ahead, companies should:
- Track market signals in real time—especially in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, where conditions can change fast.
- Own Q4 in Mexico with localized “Made in Mexico” campaigns.
- Compete on value as Chinese players expand, and move early in emerging markets like Central America and Bolivia to build trust and long-term leadership.
Go further: Read our Latin America Ecommerce Forecast 2025 report.