The news: Walmart boosted its full-year earnings and sales outlook, even as tariffs weigh on its costs. Our first take: Walmart continues to prove its resilience in a shaky macro environment by leaning on its three biggest levers: value, convenience, and groceries.

Ten years after its establishment, Amazon Business is expanding its seller network and product selection to serve an 8 million global organization customer base, which has grown 33% from 6 million in 2023. Many of the capabilities that individual shoppers enjoy on Amazon’s B2C platform—broad selection, cost savings, and advanced technology—are being applied to its B2B marketplace to help organizations work smarter and more efficiently. As Amazon Business continues to innovate, it is poised to compete for more sales from companies seeking to save time and resources.

Estée Lauder posted a wider quarterly loss as sales slumped and warned that tariffs could reduce earnings by about $100 million over the next year. Estée Lauder is taking necessary steps to turn around its business—focusing on product innovation, cutting costs, and broadening its customer reach—but it will be tough given intense competition in the beauty market. With key rival L’Oreal gaining US momentum and newer brands emerging, Estée Lauder must accelerate product innovation, reduce reliance on discounting, rebuild momentum in China, and take other steps to win new customers, or risk ceding more ground in the longer term.

The news: Lowe’s is acquiring Foundation Building Materials (FBM) for approximately $8.8 billion. The North American distributor of interior building products generated roughly $6.5 billion in revenues in 2024 on a pro forma basis and operates more than 370 locations across the US and Canada, serving 40,000 Pro customers. Its business spans both new construction and repair/remodel applications. Our take: Lowe’s is playing the long game. By doubling down on Pro customers, the retailer is building a buffer against consumer caution and the frozen housing market. FBM’s scale positions Lowe’s to capture long-term share as construction rebounds, and the raised sales guidance signals confidence that its Pro-focused playbook is already delivering results. That stands in contrast to Home Depot, which recently fell short of both revenue and earnings expectations for the first time in a decade. While Home Depot has leaned into its Pro business as well, tariffs, elevated housing costs, and labor pressures are weighing on its results. Lowe’s acquisitions and investments could give it an edge in weathering near-term headwinds and winning share from contractors and builders who will be critical growth drivers over the next decade.

Fiddelke inherits a tough hand. Target’s recent missteps—from scaling back DEI initiatives to pulling back Pride Month offerings—have weakened its brand and left it vulnerable to rivals like Walmart, which continues to win over shoppers with lower prices and broader grocery selection.

The situation: TJX is thriving as shoppers flock to its off-price value proposition. Our take: Off-price retailers like TJX’s T.J. Maxx and Marshalls are poised to thrive this holiday season, when consumers are likely to be both budget-minded and eager for discovery. TJX’s model allows it to avoid much of the tariff pain weighing on full-price retailers, since it sources excess merchandise at steep discounts. At the same time, retailers frontloading inventory in anticipation of tariff impacts may unintentionally flood the off-price channel with fresh product. That could create a double advantage heading into Q4: sharper values for shoppers, and a “treasure hunt” experience that can pull traffic away from department stores and specialty chains at a time when promotional intensity will be fierce.

The finding: More than 1 in 3 Americans (36%) name alcohol as their go‑to restaurant drink, just ahead of soda (29%) and water (21%), per a July Harris Poll. Nearly 70% of recent diners ordered at least one alcoholic beverage, per Harris. Our take: Alcohol remains a top choice, but nonalcoholic options command the bulk of orders. Restaurants should tailor their beverage programs by guest profile and occasion—showcasing premium, adult‑centric cocktails for millennials and Gen X, while expanding on‑trend, flavorful NA and low‑ABV offerings to engage Gen Z and health‑conscious diners.

The news: Home Depot is raising prices on select products to offset tariff-driven cost increases. The move marks an about-face from May, when the retailer said its diversified supply chain would shield it from price hikes. At the time, Home Depot framed holding prices steady as a chance to gain share, but near-universal tariffs have made that increasingly untenable. Our take: Home Depot’s shift illustrates how tariffs are weighing on retailers across categories—even those with diversified supply chains and strong domestic sourcing. Passing costs along to consumers could protect margins in the short term, but it risks dampening demand in an already fragile housing and home improvement market. If tariffs remain in place or expand further, retailers like Home Depot will be stuck between paying more for goods and serving customers reluctant to spend. That dynamic could accelerate SKU rationalization, push more retailers to lean on higher-margin private labels, and force difficult trade-offs between protecting margins and holding share. For Home Depot, its ability to retain relatively high-spending homeowners and pros gives it a cushion, but sustaining growth into 2025 will hinge on how successfully it balances pricing power with customer loyalty in a sluggish housing market. Adjusted earnings per share were $4.68, up from $4.67 a year earlier, but short of the $4.71 expected. Revenues were $45.28 billion, up 4.9% YoY, but below the $45.36 billion expected. However, Home Depot reaffirmed its full-year outlook, guiding to growth in total sales of 2.8% and comparable sales of roughly 1%.

The news: President Donald Trump expanded his steel and aluminum tariffs to cover 407 consumer goods that either contain, or are packaged in, aluminum or steel. The scope is wide-ranging, hitting everything from baby booster seats to microwave ovens to personal care products that come in metal containers or packaging.The news: President Donald Trump expanded his steel and aluminum tariffs to cover 407 consumer goods that either contain, or are packaged in, aluminum or steel. The scope is wide-ranging, hitting everything from baby booster seats to microwave ovens to personal care products that come in metal containers or packaging. The takeaway: The sweeping scope and sudden rollout underscore that tariff uncertainty isn’t going away—and could easily intensify. With US consumers now facing the highest average effective tariff rate since 1933, the ripple effects are clear: Higher costs will flow downstream, squeezing retailers and dampening consumer spending.

The report: Amazon is reportedly keeping its Prime Big Deal Days event to two days, per Modern Retail. If true, that’s a bit of a surprise—and runs counter to our prediction of a longer sale on a recent episode of Reimagining Retail—after Amazon touted that doubling Prime Day to four days in July produced its “biggest Prime Day event ever,” with record sales and more items sold than any previous four-day Prime Day stretch. Amazon could not be reached for comment. Our take: If Amazon limits Big Deal Days to two days, it underscores the pressures retailers face in the back half of the year as tariffs squeeze consumers and sellers. We expect Amazon’s sales to rise 8.8% during the event, a considerable slowdown from last year’s 32.0% surge. But with holiday sales forecast to grow just 1.2%, that performance may be a relative win. The bigger challenge will be sustaining momentum into Q4, as Amazon and its rivals juggle sharp discounts with the need to preserve profitability amid restrained consumer spending.

The news: Cava invested $10 million in Hyphen, the robotics startup behind Chipotle’s automated kitchen line prototype, which Chipotle has backed. Our take: QSRs’ automation bets signal a broader shift toward augmented labor rather than outright replacement. For Cava, the upside lies in freeing employees for higher-value tasks like hospitality while improving speed and accuracy for digital-first customers. But if automation expands from back-of-house prep into other areas such as beverage dispensing and loyalty-driven upselling, chains will need to walk a fine line. Too much efficiency at the expense of the human touch risks alienating customers who still value personal connection. In the long term, the winners will be those that strike the right balance between efficiency and experience.

The trend: Brands are ramping up legal action over perceived infringements of their intellectual property. Our take: With brand loyalty ebbing as price concerns take priority, more companies are leaning on the law to keep rivals from undercutting their business. But there are limits: Ecommerce marketplaces like Amazon, Walmart, Temu, and Shein are crammed to the gills with dupes that are incredibly difficult to crack down on. While companies should protect their IP wherever possible, they also need to make clear to shoppers why their products are better than knockoff versions—and why they’re worth full price.

The trend: Paper coupons are making a comeback as brands zig while their competitors zag. Direct-to-consumer upstarts like Viv For Your V, Culture Pop, and Blume are experimenting with print coupons to drive awareness and trial, per Modern Retail. The move runs counter to an industry leaning heavily digital, where advertising costs are climbing and consumer attention is fragmented. And it’s not just startups. Kroger recently introduced paper versions of its weekly digital deals after hearing from shoppers who struggle with online access, aiming to bridge the so-called “digital divide.” Our take: Brands’ use of paper coupons mirrors retailers like Dollar General, Neiman Marcus, and Amazon, which have experimented with print catalogs to grab attention in a digital-first world. With shoppers increasingly price-sensitive, less brand loyal, and actively seeking deals, a tangible coupon in hand may be just the nudge that turns browsing into buying in today’s cautious consumer climate.

Execution missteps remain a stubborn issue in grocery retail. Nearly half (48%) of shoppers have encountered pricing mismatches or promotional errors at checkout—a frequent frustration that quietly undermines trust, per a consumer survey commissioned by store intelligence provider Simbe. At a time when brand loyalty is waning, strong execution and a seamless in-store experience can be a powerful competitive advantage.

US retail sales advanced in July as consumers took advantage of major sales events. However, signs are emerging that consumers are becoming more pessimistic as inflation expectations rise. With pressure from rising food prices, higher housing costs, and uncertainty about higher tariffs, consumers remain cost-conscious—and are wary about what’s ahead. Still, it’s clear that they’re willing to spend when they see clear value, providing a roadmap for retailers to capture sales.

As tariffs raise costs for brands and retailers, many are embracing SKU rationalization—cutting underperforming items to rein in expenses and protect margins.Retailers face a delicate balancing act: trimming costs without alienating customers. SKU rationalization may be a short-term necessity, but its long-term impact hinges on how well brands can preserve shopper loyalty while streamlining the aisle.

Quick-service chains like Starbucks, Taco Bell, and Potbelly are leaning into secret menus as a low-risk, high-reward strategy to spark buzz, drive app engagement, and crowdsource product innovation. “Secret” is one of the most powerful words in the marketing playbook—it signals exclusivity, discovery, and insider access. For QSRs, secret menus turn that intrigue into action, gamifying loyalty, testing new flavors, and tapping into cultural trends—all without disrupting operations. By inviting fans to co-create, brands get viral traction and fresh product ideas, often using ingredients already in stock. It’s a low-lift, scalable strategy to boost visits and stay relevant in a crowded, fast-moving category.

Three in four US online shoppers consider fast delivery to be important, per a YouGov survey. Just 8% believe it to be unimportant. Thanks to Amazon Prime and similar offerings, consumers have come to expect free and fast shipping. But if forced to pick between the two, shoppers will accept slower delivery speeds if it means no extra cost. That’s good news for brands that can’t afford to compete with the likes of Amazon and Walmart on speed.

More than a dozen food manufacturers have pledged to remove artificial dyes from their products in response to pressure from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement. The shift from artificial dyes underscores the increased sway of public health advocates and consumer demand for cleaner labels—even in the absence of conclusive science. It puts food manufacturers in a tough spot: They are under pressure to reformulate without compromising appearance or taste, all while facing steep costs and limited upside for benefits that may be more symbolic than nutritional.

The Ulta Beauty at Target partnership, which put more than 600 Ulta mini-stores inside Target locations, will end in August 2026 when the current agreement expires. The companies said they mutually agreed not to renew the deal, which launched in 2021. With this business venture set to end, Ulta will focus on new growth opportunities, while Target will gain space to focus on operational improvements and refine its retail strategy.