This year’s Amazon Big Deal Days sale is shaping up to be another success, according to multiple forecasts. Bain and Adobe both forecast healthy growth, while we expect Amazon's ecommerce sales to rise 8.8% YoY to $8.84 billion. A strong consumer appetite for October sales could bode well for the holiday season, although we—and most other forecasters—expect growth to slow as uncertainty weighs on spending.

OpenAI is now allowing users to connect to select third-party apps within the ChatGPT interface. The integrations expand the chatbot’s utility while encouraging users to spend more time within the platform. Consumers may not yet be willing to make transactions within ChatGPT, but they are open to its recommendations. ChatGPT’s integrations with Expedia and Booking.com could transform how people approach trip planning, all while siphoning more traffic from Google—and familiarizing users with the idea of making more purchasing decisions with the help of AI.

Ikea’s parent company Ingka Group is acquiring US logistics tech firm Locus to strengthen its ecommerce operations and speed up deliveries. Locus’ AI-driven tools will optimize route planning, real-time tracking, and resource use, potentially saving Ikea around €100 million annually. The deal reflects Ikea’s push to improve digital experiences and compete with online retailers like Wayfair as ecommerce rises to 28% of sales. Combined with its smaller urban stores and new retail partnerships, the investment underscores Ikea’s strategy to create a more flexible, customer-focused model for long-term growth in the US market.

United Airlines teamed up with Instacart to give its loyalty program members sweetened perks like free grocery delivery and bonus miles. The $0 delivery fee—what United calls a first for an airline—applies on orders placed just before, during, or shortly after a domestic flight. Loyalty program participants can also earn miles for setting up new Instacart+ memberships and for linking their United and Instacart accounts.The United-Instacart collaboration is more than just a marketing tie-up. It shows how companies are responding to the desire for more flexible loyalty programs and sets the stage for more cross-industry ties among retailers, travel companies, and other industries.

The US beer industry is experiencing a rare downturn after years of steady growth, with overall sales down 1.2% and craft beer slipping 3.9% year over year. Constellation Brands has been hit particularly hard as inflation and immigration pressures strain Hispanic consumers, a key market for its Mexican beer portfolio. Sales of Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, and Victoria have all fallen, but new products like Corona Sunbrew and Corona Non-Alcoholic are gaining momentum. To stay competitive, breweries are learning that agility, innovation, and responsiveness to shifting tastes are now essential for long-term growth.

Adobe Analytics projects US holiday ecommerce sales to grow 5.3% year over year to $253.4 billion, marking a sharp slowdown from last season’s 8.7% gain as higher prices and cautious consumer sentiment curb spending. Retailers are expected to mirror last year’s steep discounts, using strategic markdowns to entice shoppers toward higher-value purchases. At the same time, AI-powered shopping and social commerce are transforming buying behavior, with AI-driven traffic forecast to jump 520% and social sales up 51%, reshaping how consumers discover and decide what to buy.

DoorDash rolled out a series of updates to make it easier for advertisers to purchase inventory and measure campaigns. Intermediaries like DoorDash are benefiting from advertisers’ frustrations around walled gardens and measurement challenges. We expect US commerce intermediary media network ad spending to jump 20.2% this year to $2.74 billion—nearly 40% higher than the combined retail media revenues of Target, eBay, and Etsy.

Drone delivery is finally taking flight in the US, with major quick-service chains launching pilot programs to test airborne burrito and chicken deliveries. Uber Eats and Flytrex plan drone pilots by late 2025, while Dave’s Hot Chicken, Chipotle, and GoTo Foods are running tests across California and Texas with partners like Matternet, Zipline, and Wing. Looser regulations and better tech are driving momentum, though most efforts remain small-scale. Still, even if drone delivery doesn’t revolutionize logistics, the buzz positions these brands as forward-thinking innovators gaining valuable PR lift.

Starbucks and Target tapped into the buzz around the release of Taylor Swift’s latest album, “The Life of a Showgirl,” to help fuel their turnaround. The stakes are high for both companies as they struggle to get customers excited about their offerings. At the same time, the question for both Starbucks and Target is whether they can turn the short-term bump into lasting growth.

Jack in the Box introduced an in-app, AI-powered “choose your own adventure” game to deliver more deals to customers and increase engagement. More quick-service restaurants (QSRs) are turning to gamification to reverse slumping traffic, spotlight value offerings, and attract more diners to their apps. Offering gamified experiences is an effective way for QSRs—and even retailers—to get new customers into their orbits while encouraging existing ones to order more frequently.

One out of every four new McDonald’s stores is located in Texas, per Bloomberg, as the fast-food chain aligns its footprint with US population trends and races toward its goal of 50,000 locations worldwide by 2027. Companies should be constantly reevaluating their store portfolios to ensure they align with demographic trends. Failing to respond to population shifts could cause brands to lose relevance, particularly in fiercely competitive sectors like fast food.

OpenAI’s launch of Instant Checkout, which enables direct purchases through ChatGPT, has triggered a competitive push among ecommerce giants to streamline online shopping. Google unveiled AI Mode, allowing conversational product searches, Amazon introduced Add to Delivery for one-tap Prime orders, and Meta rolled out Business AI to enhance chat-based shopping across its platforms. While Instant Checkout currently supports only single Etsy purchases and lacks utility for everyday shopping, its debut signals the potential of AI-driven commerce. For now, Amazon and Google’s scale and infrastructure give them the edge, but the arms race to own the purchase path is intensifying.

Shein and Amazon are making bold retail moves in France as economic stagnation fuels demand for low-cost goods. Shein will open its first permanent French stores in November through a partnership with Société des Grands Magasins, marking a shift from its online-only model. Meanwhile, Amazon plans to roll out its budget-friendly Haul offering in France, featuring clothing, cosmetics, and household items priced under €20. Both initiatives face backlash—Shein from regulators and the fashion industry, and Amazon from critics of its impact on local retailers—but France’s appetite for affordable shopping suggests both efforts will gain traction despite opposition.

Consumers are approaching the holiday season with restraint: 27% of US adults expect to spend less from October to December, while 22% spend more, per a July survey from Experian and ad platform GroundTruth. Discounters and value-oriented retailers should be well-positioned to draw holiday sales from consumers. Still, retailers chasing growth during the make-or-break holiday season will need to drive and reward value-seeking behavior. That means their marketing must be aligned with shopping behaviors. Messaging should spotlight value and affordability. Marketing campaigns should be stretched across the extended shopping season, not just concentrated on big events like Black Friday. Promotions and loyalty perks should be used to reward value seekers.

GenAI is becoming an indispensable tool for shoppers looking to navigate the endless aisle that is ecommerce. Two-thirds of consumers who make a weekly online purchase regularly use genAI assistants like ChatGPT to inform their shopping decisions, according to a survey from ecommerce retention platform Yotpo. GenAI is in the early stages of transforming the customer journey, but it is no doubt becoming a front door to ecommerce. Retailers need to be prepared for a future when AI, not shoppers, are the primary visitors to their sites. Those who invest in AI-ready content, authentic reviews, and clear product data will lure tomorrow’s customers. Those that don’t risk fading into the background of the AI-driven marketplace.

Conagra beat Q1 earnings and sales expectations, but ongoing headwinds from tariffs, inflation, and shifting consumer behavior weighed on results. Net sales fell 5.8% year-over-year to $2.63 billion, while adjusted EPS dropped 26.4% to 39 cents, still ahead of forecasts. Snack sales showed mixed performance, with Slim Jim and David sunflower seeds gaining but Boomchickapop and Duncan Hines slipping due to promotion timing and higher cocoa costs. With consumers trading down to store brands, Conagra faces pressure to balance price hikes with value-driven strategies that reinforce loyalty and protect market share.

Ikea is proceeding with its $2.2 billion US expansion, undeterred by new tariffs on lumber, kitchen cabinets, and other furniture. The company is confident that its reputation for affordable furniture and home goods will help it thrive, even in a challenging housing market. However, expanding Ikea’s share of the market is contingent on the company expanding its brick-and-mortar presence.

Ralph Lauren is expanding its hospitality empire, with plans to open a new Polo Bar restaurant in London in 2028. That outpost will join others in New York, Milan, Chicago, Chengdu, and Paris. With luxury sales under pressure as aspirational customers pull back, hospitality concepts are an opportunity for brands to keep shoppers engaged and maintain heat. By deliberately courting social media attention, and using tactics like exclusive merchandise to build excitement, brands can create more opportunities for customers to spend time (and money) on their properties.

The US is facing a worsening cost-of-living crisis as wages fail to keep pace with rising expenses in groceries, housing, and energy, leaving 67% of Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck. Consumer confidence has dropped to recession-era levels, while credit card debt and student loan burdens intensify financial strain across income groups, even among affluent households. With spending shifting toward essentials, retailers and brands are under pressure to emphasize value through private-label products, aggressive discounts, and loyalty programs. Companies that adapt to consumers’ value-conscious mindset will be best positioned to weather the downturn.

Budget hotel chains are facing the same turbulence as discount airlines, per Yahoo Finance. Lower-income travelers are pulling back while wealthier consumers trade up to more comfortable stays, pressuring budget hotels. Usually resilient in downturns, these companies face what Bank of America calls “structural” headwinds: lower-income travelers contending with slow income growth, weakening sentiment, and persistent inflation.Companies like Hyatt and Marriott have the cushion of diversified portfolios—and may even pick up business as wealthier travelers trade up. But others, such as Choice Hotels and Wyndham, don’t have that safety net. Their focus on the budget segment makes them more vulnerable, which is why Bank of America downgraded Choice shares to “underperform” from “buy” this week.