Walmart is going all in on AI as it prepares for a future in which more people rely on the technology to work and shop. The company is making strategic AI hires while streamlining its agents to make them easier for shoppers, employees, and partners to use. Agentic tools are both a threat and an opportunity for retailers. Companies need to prepare for a future where tools like ChatGPT and Perplexity make purchases on behalf of shoppers—which will require them either to make their websites more accessible to these assistants, or to build their own AI agents to make those transactions seamless. AI agents are also a useful investment in the current era of uncertainty, given their ability to unlock cost savings at a time when every dollar counts.

The results: Walmart’s decision to directly overlap its “Deals” event with Amazon's four-day Prime Day sale appears to have paid off. Spending on Walmart.com surged 24% YoY during its promotion that ended July 13, according to credit and debit card transaction data from Bloomberg Second Measure—six times Amazon Prime Day’s YoY growth rate. Data from Similarweb reinforces the momentum: Walmart’s web traffic rose 14% and app usage jumped 22%, compared with flat web traffic and a 3% app increase for Amazon. Zooming out: Exact sales figures remain elusive, but one thing is clear: July has become a high-stakes battleground for summer spending. While Amazon may have pioneered the mid-summer shopping holiday, Walmart and others are proving it’s no longer a one-player game. A growing number of consumers are using Prime Day as a cue to comparison shop—creating real opportunities for retailers that can deliver compelling value, urgency, and convenience.

Chipotle lowered its FY sales forecast after same-store sales fell more than expected in Q2, marking the second-straight quarter of declining traffic as wary consumers think twice about dining out. Chipotle’s Q2 struggles clearly show that consumers are becoming much pickier about where they choose to spend their money. The vast array of meal deals available in the QSR marketplace means Chipotle can no longer compete on value alone—making menu innovation and limited-time offerings even more necessary to drive traffic.

The challenge: Hasbro and Mattel may be signaling muted confidence with upgraded full-year outlooks—Hasbro raised its guidance and Mattel reinstated its forecast after a pause in May—but both faced the same headwind: Retailers delayed holiday inventory builds and postponed shelf resets into Q3, which weighed on Q2 results. Our take: Weak Q2 orders could set up a rebound in the back half, but Hasbro and Mattel can’t depend on their legacy brands alone to drive growth. To protect margins in a volatile market—tariffs alone could cost Hasbro up to $180 million this year (although it expects the hit to be closer to $60 million)—both companies need to trim SKUs and focus on proven winners, diversify their sourcing to cut tariff risk, and fine-tune their pricing and promotional levers. Their success will ultimately depend on their ability to adapt to shifting operational pressures.

The situation: With President Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariff deadline—pushed from July 9 to August 1—fast approaching, the White House has announced the outlines of trade agreements with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan. Our take: This new tariff regime is already dragging on growth—and the effects are likely to deepen. Before the Trump administration rolled out its trade agenda, we expected US retail sales this year to rise 2.9% YoY, a slight increase from the 2.8% growth last year. But given the current tariff regime, we now expect sales to increase just 1.5%, which would be a real sales decrease, since that’s below the rate of inflation. We’re not alone. Goldman Sachs sees a clear deceleration ahead, citing tariffs as a likely driver of both rising prices and weakened consumer spending. And while economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal trimmed the odds of a recession to 33%—down from 45% in April—it remains well above the 22% forecast in January. In this new normal, retailers and manufacturers should prepare for sustained margin pressure, increasingly cautious consumers, and slower growth.

Retailers have been quietly sidelining plus-size clothing and reducing in-store quantities, even though most US women wear larger sizes. This shrinking presence isn't just a bad business decision; it's out of step with consumer preferences.

Tesla is officially in the restaurant business following the much-hyped opening of the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles. The futuristic concept could be the template for additional openings in the US as well as abroad, CEO Elon Musk said—helping the company boost brand awareness, engagement, and sales. The diner’s launch—and the accompanying wave of press and social media posts—could help reset consumers’ perceptions of the Tesla brand at a particularly tumultuous time for the company. But it could also, given the company’s increasingly polarized reputation, become a focal point for protests, which might deter would-be customers from stopping in.

The news: Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are expanding their portfolios by leaning into better-for-you trends and ingredient transparency. Our take: Even with Coca-Cola and PepsiCo’s massive brand equity, they face the same fundamental challenge as all CPG brands: competing against private labels offering innovative flavors at lower prices, and better-for-you upstarts chip away at brand loyalty. While ingredients like cane sugar and prebiotics may not sway every shopper, they appeal to increasingly fragmented consumer preferences. Expect more targeted innovations as soda makers try to balance nostalgia with modern demands for wellness, transparency, and functional benefits.

Athleisure brands lululemon athletica and Vuori are expanding their presence overseas as the US market cools. With the US market looking increasingly uncertain, it’s no surprise that brands like lululemon and Vuori are looking to international markets to shift growth into a new gear. This trend will likely pick up among apparel brands this year, as they look for ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs and reduce their reliance on US shoppers.

The news: Primark is incorporating inclusive and sensory-friendly features into its kidswear line to help more children feel “comfortable and good” in their clothes, per The Retail Bulletin. Our take: Inclusivity isn’t just about doing the right thing—it’s a smart business strategy. At a time when brand loyalty is eroding—especially among Gen Z and millennial shoppers—retailers and brands that thoughtfully accommodate children with sensory sensitivities have a real opportunity. By offering products and experiences that meet these needs, they can forge lasting connections with parents who are actively seeking out solutions that make their kids feel comfortable and seen.

Automakers face an increasingly difficult environment as President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the removal of EV tax credits reshape supply chains and production strategy. Like the broader US economy, auto sales have been resilient thus far, as tariffs and other government policies motivate consumers to buy now. Automakers and dealers are capitalizing on the moment with incentives like employee pricing, but the short-term surge is unlikely to last.

The strategy: Despite ongoing economic headwinds, Domino’s delivered solid Q2 growth across all income levels by doubling down on value and innovation—key pillars of its Hungry for More growth strategy. CEO Russell Weiner noted during the company’s earnings call that Domino’s has consistently gained about 1 percentage point of market share annually over the past decade—and sees ample opportunity to build on that momentum and further outpace rivals. Our take: Domino’s is proving that even in a challenging, price-sensitive environment, smart innovation and a sharp value proposition can drive growth across income cohorts. By blending crave-worthy new items like stuffed crust pizza with a more personalized loyalty experience and increased delivery flexibility, the brand is positioning itself to win market share from slower-moving rivals.

UK shoppers will purchase £4.8 billion ($6.1 billion) worth of secondhand products online this year, according to a report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) commissioned by Amazon. That’s up nearly 12% YoY, as consumers look for ways to shop that are easier on their budgets and the environment. Retailers that lack a robust resale or refurbishment strategy risk losing out. Platforms like Vinted, Depop, and Amazon are meeting rising consumer demand for more sustainable—and affordable—products. Establishing an official program can set new consumer expectations for retail while easing common fears about shopping secondhand, including concerns about item condition and seller trust.

Starbucks is taking a different approach to its much-hyped Pumpkin Spice Latte this year. Rather than pulling the launch forward, as it has done for the past several years, the drink will make its debut on August 26—four days later than in 2024, and the PSL’s latest launch date since 2022. Delaying the launch slightly could build excitement over Starbucks’ fall menu, and encourage customers to visit more often once the PSL hits stores. The move might also lift sales for Starbucks’ grocery assortment—especially given the current popularity of at-home coffee brewing—which could in turn help offset the company’s in-store softness. Still, the enduring popularity of the PSL alone won’t be enough to lift Starbucks out of its slump.

The situation: President Trump’s shifting trade policies are introducing fresh volatility across sourcing, pricing, and promotional planning—setting the stage for an incredibly uncertain holiday shopping season. Our take: Tariffs and uncertainty will weigh heavily on consumers this holiday season. Retailers must meet shoppers where they are: cautious, price-sensitive, and focused on making each dollar count. That means doubling down on value, highlighting affordability, and offering practical or emotionally resonant gifts that justify the spend and move shoppers to buy.

The split screen: There’s a growing divide between affluent consumers and everyone else. Our take: It’s tempting to look at top-line numbers—like June retail sales—and assume the economy is holding steady. But much of the resilience is concentrated at the top. Moody’s estimates the wealthiest 10% of households—those earning $250,000 or more—now account for half of all US consumer spending, up from about one-third in the early 1990s. That dynamic helps explain why luxury brands like Burberry and RH continue to post gains, while value-focused chains like McDonald’s are seeing signs of softening demand. As inequality widens and economic anxiety builds, especially amid persistent inflation and trade uncertainty, the US economy looks increasingly bifurcated.

The news: Walmart’s $2.3 billion Vizio acquisition may have only closed last December, but the retailer is already unlocking outsize value from the deal. Our take: Walmart is squeezing every drop of value from its Vizio deal by fusing hardware, software, data, and retail media into a self-reinforcing flywheel. Making Vizio a Walmart-exclusive private label gives the retailer tighter control over pricing and distribution, while Vizio’s OS and shoppable-TV features unlock new streams of nonendemic ad revenues. By combining its in-house ad network with ONN TVs powered by Vizio software, Walmart is positioning itself to own the entire living-room stack—from screen to checkout. The result is a powerful closed-loop media system that can rival Amazon’s Fire TV ecosystem. The retailer’s timing couldn’t be better: We expect retail media CTV ad spending to surge 47.4% this year to $4.84 billion, and to more than double to $10.72 billion by 2029.

Shiseido is planning a “wide-ranging and significant reduction” to its Americas workforce, according to an internal memo first reported by Instagram account Estée Laundry. That marks the latest in a string of beauty layoffs, with both Estée Lauder and Coty announcing headcount reductions earlier this year. While some of Shiseido’s problems stem from its misjudged acquisition strategy, its downsizing also speaks to the difficult beauty environment. We expect cosmetics and beauty sales to rise 2.4% this year, less than half of 2024’s growth rate—and a far cry from the 11.2% increase in 2023.

Target will no longer match prices at Amazon and Walmart, a move it claims will simplify its pricing policy, per a Bloomberg report. Strategically, this is another move that could backfire for Target, which is already having a hard time getting shoppers to its stores. It could widen the gulf that is emerging between the retailer and its mass-merchant rivals, who are increasingly using Target’s own tactics against it.

The news: Circle K owner Alimentation Couche-Tard has dropped its bid to buy Japan’s Seven & i Holdings, casting doubt on whether the 7-Eleven operator’s planned US IPO will proceed, Bloomberg reported. Our take: As 7-Eleven continues efforts to strengthen its core business, the failed takeover bid offers lessons for retailers and brands. Decisions involving globally recognized brands should be strategic, not reactive. Retailers must maintain flexibility to revisit IPO or spin-off plans as business circumstances change.