Home Depot is sharpening its pitch to non-endemic advertisers with a new partnership with Yahoo DSP. Non-endemic advertising could be a lucrative opportunity for RMNs—but it comes with its own set of challenges. Retailers have to clearly articulate what advantages they offer compared with the rest of the (very crowded) field, while measuring the impact of non-incremental ads is more difficult given the absence of closed-loop attribution. Companies should also follow Home Depot’s lead in being strategic about the types of non-endemic advertisers they allow onto their platform. While the temptation might be to cast as wide a net as possible, limiting ad buys to brands in complementary categories will maximize effectiveness and minimize the confusion for shoppers.

The news: Macy’s aims to boost in-store traffic this back-to-school season by expanding its assortment—most notably by adding select Abercrombie Kids items to its lineup. The move comes at a challenging moment, as we expect back-to-school sales to slow for the second straight year. Our take: Back-to-school is a perfect proving ground for Macy’s portfolio revamp. Parents and teens are already in “new‑gear” mode, so adding Abercrombie Kids now lets Macy’s showcase a fresher, youth‑centric mix when foot traffic naturally peaks. Pairing the drop with proven draws like Nike and Jordan turns a seasonal rush into a live test of Macy’s revamped merchandising—and gives shoppers a clear reason to visit the store before classes start.

Amazon shrugged off tariff concerns in its Q2 earnings report, after reporting growth ahead of expectations. But the retailer’s Q3 forecast was murky, suggesting that while consumer demand remains resilient, uncertainty from tariffs and trade policy—along with extensive investments in AI—could weigh heavily on its bottom line. Amazon’s strong quarter and Q3 sales guidance help dispel some fears about the health of the consumer. But its decision to once again offer an unusually broad profit range for the next quarter shows considerable uncertainty about the impact the Trump administration’s trade policies will have on retailers’ costs.

The news: Best Buy is testing a store-within-a-store concept with Ikea, aimed at helping customers more seamlessly integrate its appliances into Ikea-designed kitchens and laundry rooms. This marks the first time the Swedish retailer has offered services and products within another US retailer. Our take: Pairing two well-known, purpose-driven brands around a shared customer use case—home design and functionality—is a smart play. The in-person branded experience should provide value to shoppers and offer a win-win path to renewed relevance and growth for both companies.

Etsy and eBay see opportunity to gain share as tariffs burden their competitors and consumers adjust their spending habits. Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from renewed interest in resale as tariffs make buying new more expensive for shoppers. The two platforms also now face less competition from Shein, Temu, and Amazon in online ad auctions—allowing them to be more efficient with marketing spend and reach more potential customers. While neither eBay nor Etsy is fully immune from the effects of tariffs—and their potential drag on the economy and consumer confidence—they are less exposed than most other retailers.

Consumer goods giants Kraft Heinz and Unilever are moving to stimulate demand in a challenging sales climate by increasing marketing spending on their most popular products. Both companies are betting on marketing to spur demand and improve brand equity in a slower-growth climate. But the question is whether stepped-up marketing will be enough to overcome rising consumer caution, particularly in categories like snacks and personal care, where purchases are more discretionary in a tariff-driven environment. Increased investments in promotions could pressure margins in coming quarters.

The trend: Inflation ticked higher in June as the impact of tariffs began to reach consumers. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.6% YoY, slightly above the 2.5% analysts expected and up from 2.4% in May, marking the highest level since February. On a monthly basis, it climbed 0.3%, in line with forecasts. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy items, increased 2.8% YoY, ahead of the 2.7% analysts expected, and 0.3% MoM, in line with expectations. Our take: Inflation remains the top economic concern for US consumers and pressure is building. Companies ranging from Procter & Gamble and Kraft Heinz to Mattel, Stanley Black & Decker, and Walmart have all signaled plans to raise prices. With many households already tightening their budgets, even modest hikes could spur further pullbacks in spending, making an already tough retail environment even harder to navigate.

The situation: Amazon and Google, once bound by a symbiotic relationship in which Amazon funneled ad dollars into Google Search and Google indexed Amazon’s pages, are now veering toward open conflict as generative AI (genAI) blurs the lines between ecommerce, advertising, and search. Both companies are determined to own the entire journey from discovery to checkout, and that ambition is unraveling what remains of their former détente. Our take: Amazon and Google are racing to define where and how consumers discover and buy products in the genAI era. If Amazon succeeds in walling off its marketplace data and steering shoppers to its own AI interfaces, the retail landscape could splinter into walled gardens where tech giants cooperate far less. That winner‑takes‑all dynamic might suit the victors, but it risks degrading the overall consumer experience with fewer choices and less transparent pricing. At the same time, it could lead brands and retailers into a margin‑sapping race to the bottom inside whichever closed ecosystem proves most dominant.

The luxury sector is facing a “challenging” and “somewhat unprecedented” environment, Prada Group chairman Patrizio Bertelli said—causing even once-hot brands like the company’s namesake label to lose momentum. Luxury companies for the most part view the current downturn as a cyclical blip in an otherwise robust industry. But the prolonged slump is revealing structural challenges—namely, heavier reliance on American and Chinese consumers, as well as a tendency to lean on price hikes rather than innovation to drive sales.

North America was a bright spot for L’Oréal’s otherwise mixed Q2. Like-for-like sales in the region rose 8.3% YoY, more than twice the consensus estimate of 4%. L’Oréal’s bullishness about the health of the beauty sector is decidedly at odds with some of its peers. That doesn’t mean its optimism is entirely misplaced: L’Oréal is better positioned than its peers to capitalize on the beauty ecommerce boom, while its local manufacturing model significantly reduces its exposure to tariffs.

The data: US consumer spending inched up just 1.4% YoY in Q2, per the US Commerce Department. While that’s up from the tepid 0.5% in Q1, it’s well below the 2.8% growth in spending in 2024, and the fifth-slowest rate since Q3 2021. Goods spending rose 2.2% YoY, up from 0.1% the prior quarter, while services spending increased 1.1% YoY, ahead of the 0.6% in Q1. Our take: Eliminating the de minimis exemption levels the playing field between international ecommerce sellers and domestic retailers—but could also drive up prices for consumers.

The news: President Donald Trump signed an executive order to close the so-called de minimis trade loophole, which allows foreign packages valued under $800 to enter the US tariff-free. Effective August 29, all shipments under that threshold—regardless of origin—will be subject to duties based on value and country of origin. The White House already ended the exemption for packages from China and Hong Kong on May 2. Our take: Eliminating the de minimis exemption levels the playing field between international ecommerce sellers and domestic retailers—but could also drive up prices for consumers.

The challenges: UPS’ turnaround remains in the early innings due to structural inefficiencies, operational missteps, and mounting macroeconomic headwinds. Our take: UPS faces a difficult road ahead. The company is actively trying to streamline operations—planning to shutter up to 10% of its buildings, downsize its fleet, and reduce its US workforce to better align with leaner volumes. It’s also trimming low-margin business, notably cutting back on Amazon deliveries, which made up as much as 11.8% of its total revenues last year, in an effort to prioritize more profitable shipments. Still, with demand under pressure and cost headwinds mounting, stabilizing performance will be an uphill climb.

Procter & Gamble is hedging its bets as it grapples with higher costs related to tariffs and “stressed” consumers. The CPG company expects organic growth between 0% and 4% this year—a notably wider range than it usually forecasts, underscoring the uncertainty it (along with the rest of the CPG and retail industries) faces. Uncertainty is the byword for this year. While consumer sentiment is recovering, financial pressures, particularly on low-income households, remain—and are likely to intensify as tariffs boost inflation and the “Big Beautiful Bill” curbs buying power. Regardless of which way sentiment is headed, there is no question that tariffs are reshaping consumers’ purchasing decisions.

The news: D2C brand Quince is now valued at $4.5 billion following a $200 million funding round, per Bloomberg. That’s more than double its valuation from earlier this year and marks its second successful fundraising attempt in six months. Quince’s meteoric rise reflects the normalization of dupe culture. Shoppers are no longer making decisions solely on brand name and are gravitating toward companies that offer a compelling combination of affordability and quality.

Snacks maker Mars said it plans to invest an additional $2 billion in US manufacturing through next year to build new facilities and upgrade existing ones in wake of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Tariffs are leading some businesses to boost their US footprint, and we may see more investment announcements. But a key consideration is whether these expansion announcements will represent substantive, job-creating initiatives, or if they are largely symbolic moves designed to support the US government’s current messaging around American manufacturing.

The situation: Despite logging a sixth consecutive quarter of negative comps in FY Q3, CEO Brian Niccol—who famously steered Chipotle out of its food‑safety crisis—said Starbucks’ turnaround is running ahead of schedule. Our take: While it’s encouraging to see Starbucks take some small steps in a positive direction, the road is still steep. Consumers remain price‑sensitive, agile rivals in the US and China are taking multiple paths to steal share (both value‑led and trend‑driven), and commodity costs are rising. To break out of its sales slump, Starbucks must execute on four fronts: Make service faster and better. The chain needs to speed up service without sacrificing the high-touch hospitality that Niccol is seeking. Find ways to differentiate. It’s easy to roll out new offerings, but it's hard to develop unique beverages that consumers will clamor for rather than recoil at (who can forget Starbucks’ Oleato line of olive oil-infused drinks?). Lean on technology. Refreshing Starbucks’ Rewards program and revamping its app are proven tools to drive occasional customers back into its stores. Stabilize China. Price cuts may lift traffic, but Starbucks needs to balance volume gains against margin erosion and fend off lower‑priced competitors such as Luckin. Nailing these pillars—speed, product innovation, tech‑powered engagement, and a calibrated China play—will determine whether early green shoots turn into sustained growth.

The situation: The US housing market is in rough shape, as homes aren’t selling, yet prices keep climbing. In June—typically the spring peak—existing-home sales fell 2.7% MoM, while the median price hit a record $435,300, per the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This spring marked the weakest selling season since 2012, with just 1.39 million contracts signed from April to June, per Redfin. That was down 9.7% from last year, which was also a weak sales season. Our take: With transactions stalled and prices still climbing, the housing market offers little short-term relief. For retailers tethered to homeownership and moving cycles, that’s a stubborn headwind—especially as tariff costs rise and consumers grow more selective about their discretionary spend. Retailers tied to housing can keep sales going by highlighting their affordable products as well as the long-term value of items like appliances and furniture.

Tariffs could reshape the fashion calendar as brands rethink their merchandising strategies to limit exposure. While Vince’s decision to lengthen its spring season was borne out of necessity, it could herald a larger shift in how fashion brands approach their calendars—particularly as tariffs force tougher decisions about what and how much inventory to bring in. Companies can either go faster—taking a page from the fast-fashion industry and launching new styles quickly and often—or slower, à la Vince, depending upon their customers’ preferences.

emu’s attempts to tariff-proof its business are running into opposition from regulators and sellers alike. The company has been accused of failing to protect EU users from illegal products. Efforts to woo US sellers to its marketplace are also running aground as companies and merchants refuse to sell products on Temu for less than what they retail for on Amazon. For all its troubles, we expect Temu’s US ecommerce sales to rise 13.5% this year, which would be the second-fastest rate of growth among the companies we track—but a far cry from the triple-digit increases it enjoyed over the past few years. With governments increasingly unfavorable to its business tactics—and Amazon increasingly inclined to flex its market power—Temu will need a new playbook to navigate the current era of uncertainty and tariffs.