Amazon is investing $25 million in Colombian delivery app Rappi through a convertible note that could give it up to a 12% stake, signaling a push to strengthen its last-mile delivery capabilities across Latin America. With Rappi’s 35 million users, rapid “Turbo” delivery service, and superapp ecosystem, Amazon hopes to challenge Mercado Libre. While the partnership could expand Amazon’s reach from Mexico to Chile, it faces stiff competition: Mercado Libre is investing $13.2 billion this year alone, fueling a projected 22.7% sales jump and expanding its commanding market share.

Retailers are rolling out Halloween merchandise earlier than ever, hoping to entice cautious shoppers with unique seasonal products. Target is offering over 1,500 new items, including limited-edition Stanley cups, while Home Depot and Lowe’s push oversized animatronics and quirky skeletons. Build-A-Bear is already seeing strong sales from themed plushies, and Spirit Halloween is betting on immersive store experiences. Despite economic uncertainty, 75% of US adults plan to shop for holiday-themed goods, and retailers that imported early may benefit from avoiding looming tariffs that could sharply raise costume and mask prices.

Magnum Ice Cream is optimistic about boosting growth and profitability following its planned split from Unilever, projecting 3%–5% organic sales growth from 2026 and steady margin expansion. With a 21% share of the global ice cream market and a €500 million cost-savings initiative, the company is well-positioned to leverage shifting consumer preferences. Magnum plans to appeal to GLP-1 users by marketing its products as calorie-efficient, higher-protein snacks while also reducing sugar and additives. By narrowing its focus, Magnum joins other CPG players in streamlining operations to stay competitive against rising private-label alternatives.

Higher-income shoppers are driving higher return rates in 2025, with a 5.3% rate compared to 3.7% for lower-income consumers, according to Bank of America data. Analysts suggest this stems from wealthier buyers’ heavier discretionary spending, speculative purchases, and even wardrobing to test styles. Fraud is also a factor, with one in four higher-income shoppers engaging in first-party fraud during the holidays versus just 11% of lower-income peers. While retailers often look to affluent consumers for growth, their elevated returns create added costs, pushing companies toward AR try-on tools and stronger fraud detection instead of stricter policies.

Nike and Under Armour are leaning on the star power of LeBron James and Steph Curry to restore flagging sales in China and stay culturally relevant. Their ongoing struggles in the region show that brands can no longer expect to coast on their reputations to win over global customers—especially now, as US trade policies sour relations with even its closest allies.

Sam’s Club is targeting a major ecommerce expansion, aiming to grow digital sales from 18% to at least 40% of total revenues by leveraging Walmart’s supply chain and new digital tools. Recent updates include a redesigned website and app with flexible fulfillment options, larger media-rich product pages, and expanded club-fulfilled delivery. The retailer is testing larger fulfillment spaces and adding online experiences like pizza delivery to drive engagement. With 40% of members using Scan & Go, Sam’s Club is streamlining in-store trips while building a stronger digital ecosystem, boosting ad opportunities and positioning itself against Costco and other rivals.

New data shows Trump’s tariff-driven trade policies are disrupting global shipments and straining US manufacturers just as the holiday season approaches. Global postal traffic to the US plunged 81% after closure of the “de minimis” loophole, while China’s exports to the US fell 33% year over year. Despite promises of revitalizing US manufacturing, factory activity has contracted for six consecutive months and employment has slipped. With holiday sales growth now forecast at just 1.2% instead of 3.9%, retailers face weaker demand, higher costs, and limited product selection, signaling prolonged pressure on consumers and the broader economy.

Temu’s US business is slowly recovering, despite tariff pressures and the end of de minimis. The ending of de minimis for all sellers—not just those based in China—coupled with higher tariff costs for virtually all retailers has enabled Temu to maintain its value proposition and appeal to bargain-hunting shoppers. That also applies to Shein, which is seeing shopping frequency, app downloads, site visits, and search interest above 2024 levels. The company’s recoveries show how important price is to US consumers—and how receptive they are to the stream of flash sales, discounts, and gamified rewards that Shein and Temu offer.

Lululemon athetica warned the end of the de minimis exemption will be more damaging to its bottom line than tariffs alone. De minimis’ abrupt end is pressuring retailers’ supply chains and their operating models. In addition to tariff-proofing their manufacturing strategies, companies that relied on duty-free shipments to the US must now also invest in local fulfillment and face the full weight of tariff costs. While companies are looking to offset some of those expenses by reducing operating costs, most of the burden will ultimately be passed onto consumers—which could curb demand heading into the all-important holiday season.

The US economy is showing signs of strain just as retailers prepare for the holiday season, with weak job growth, rising unemployment, and soft consumer sentiment adding to inflation and tariff pressures. August saw only 22,000 new jobs created, while job cuts rose and openings fell to a two-year low, underscoring a fragile labor market. Consumers remain pessimistic, tightening their spending plans despite potential Fed rate cuts. Our outlook is cautious: holiday retail sales are projected to grow just 1.2%, forcing retailers to lean heavily on promotions and loyalty-driven discounts to capture demand without eroding margins.

Trading card mania is proving to be a profitable tailwind for Target, eBay, and Walmart, as high-profile releases and collector enthusiasm drive spending. The market for toys is increasingly being driven by demand for collectibles like Labubus and trading cards. That demand is strongest among adults, who see these items both as fun indulgences and investment opportunities.

Value-focused grocers are aggressively expanding as cost-conscious consumers seek affordable options, with Aldi set to open 225 US stores in 2025, Trader Joe’s adding 41, and Lidl continuing steady growth in key metro areas. Inflation pressures and lingering COVID-era costs are fueling a surge in private-label demand, which grew 4.4% year over year compared with 1.1% for national brands. These chains’ differentiated private-label strategies are driving above-average foot traffic, underscoring their appeal. The takeaway for competitors is clear: prioritize value while building unique private-label lines that strengthen margins and deepen customer loyalty.

Resale platform Depop launched its biggest US marketing campaign to date as it looks to expand its audience beyond its core Gen Z user base and capitalize on surging demand for secondhand goods. Growing global demand for resale presents challenges and opportunities—both for marketplaces that trade in secondhand goods, like Depop and eBay, as well as for traditional retailers.

Old Navy is venturing deeper into beauty. The Gap Inc. unit will begin selling its own branded beauty products this fall, alongside an expanded selection of items from brands like e.l.f. and Mario Badescu, per The Wall Street Journal. Old Navy’s beauty expansion is a bold bet, given the enormous number of brands already in the market and the increasing ranks of retailers hoping to benefit from resilient beauty demand.

The news: General Motors is tapping the brakes on electric vehicle production just after posting its best-ever month of EV sales in August. The automaker plans to scale back output of the Chevy Bolt and two Cadillac models as the federal $7,500 EV tax credit expires at the end of this month. “It will take several months for the market to normalize,” wrote Duncan Aldred, senior vice president and president, North America, in a blog post explaining the move. In the meantime, GM aims to avoid overproduction, anticipating a “smaller EV market for a while.” Our take: GM revived the Bolt to fill an unmet niche: affordable EVs. While the GOP tax and spending bill may narrow that opportunity, strong consumer interest suggests GM can still carve out meaningful gains—if it delivers a compelling value-for-money proposition.

The trend: In the wake of the US closing the de minimis loophole, several large Chinese ecommerce and logistics firms have been investing in European warehouses to offset US losses, per Bloomberg. Our take: The days of rapid growth for Chinese ecommerce companies may be over. Europe might soften the blow from US losses, but it is unlikely to replace them—especially given the weak economic outlooks in France and Germany.

The news: Target is offering select customers a free year subscription to its Target Circle 360 membership program if they spend $199 on qualifying purchases by September 20, per Modern Retail. The $99 per year membership program offers free same-day delivery from Target, Kroger, CVS, Petco, and other stores via Target’s Shipt service, along with early access to Target sales, exclusive discounts and deals, and an extended returns window. Our take: Target should borrow a page from Walmart and lean on partnerships to expand Circle 360. That could mean teaming up with companies like Burger King for perks or with credit card issuers like American Express to bundle free memberships. The real power of paid memberships isn’t just subscription revenues—it’s their stickiness. Amazon has shown that once customers pay for Prime, they try to maximize every perk—streaming, prescriptions, food delivery, free shipping—and the more they use, the more they spend. Nonmembers, by contrast, often plateau or pull back. If Target wants to keep pace, it needs to find ways to broaden Circle 360’s offerings.

American Eagle Outfitters’ bet on star power is helping the company recover from its sales slump. The retailer’s controversial campaign with Sydney Sweeney has been hugely successful, the company said, helping to boost brand awareness and drive shoppers to stores. Its recently announced collaboration with Travis Kelce also delivered an immediate sales bump. American Eagle’s celebrity-led marketing strategy is driving its recovery after a poor start to the year. By turning controversy into buzz, the brand’s campaigns have revived interest in its core products and expanded its appeal to a broader audience.

The forecasts: The holiday season may bring more gloom than cheer for retailers as consumers tighten spending amid economic uncertainty. Average per-person spend during the season is projected to fall 5.3% YoY to $1,552, PwC reports. That’s the first significant drop since the 2020 pandemic. Gen Z is leading the pullback, with their holiday budgets set to plunge 22.5% after soaring 37.4% in last year’s survey (their actual spending rose just 6%, per PwC’s card data). That reversal reflects the mounting pressure they face from a stagnant job market, rising fixed costs, and thin savings. One in 4 (25%) Gen Zers now say their finances are worse than a year ago, up from 17% in 2024. Tariffs may be amplifying the pullback. A July CivicScience survey found 54% of consumers under 30—along with 47% of all gift buyers—plan to buy fewer or cheaper gifts due to tariff concerns. While our forecast is somewhat brighter—we expect sales in November and December to grow 1.2% YoY—even that would mark the weakest holiday sales gain since we began tracking the metric in 2009. Our take: Retailers should meet consumers where they are this holiday season by offering budget-friendly choices such as smaller sizes, bundles, and gift sets, while also using loyalty programs to push their best customers to spend.

Macy’s better-than-expected Q2 marks “the beginning of a momentum change,” CEO Tony Spring told Bloomberg, as the struggling department store finds its footing ahead of the holiday season. Macy’s is in a better position than most of its department store peers, thanks to its investments in the customer experience and its luxury banners. However, recovery could prove fleeting should consumer sentiment worsen and shoppers balk at higher prices. To keep its momentum going, Macy’s will need to continue investing in the customer experience and look for ways to differentiate its luxury banners.