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Delta reinstates profit forecast as travel demand becomes more predictable

The insight: Travel demand has stabilized after a turbulent start to Q2, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in an interview with CNBC.

As a result, the airline reinstated its profit outlook for the year. It had withdrawn its forecast after President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements.

Not all clear skies: Both consumers and businesses are less anxious than they were in April—and therefore more inclined to book summer travel.

But demand remains below where Delta expected it would be at the start of the year, when it forecast that 2025 would be the best financial year in its history. The airline now expects earnings per share of between $5.25 and $6.25 this fiscal year, a far cry from the more than $7.35 it anticipated in January.

  • Most of Delta’s momentum is coming from premium revenues, which grew 5% YoY in Q2. Main cabin sales fell 5%.
  • Loyalty revenues rose 8% YoY, thanks to strong spending from Gen Zers and millennials—a sign that consumers are looking to credit card rewards to offset the cost of travel.

While interest in travel remains relatively strong, would-be travelers are delaying booking “until they’re a little closer in to their travel dates,” Bastian said—which is forcing the airline to cut flight capacity and adjust its pricing strategy.

Our take: The summer travel season is shaping up to be better than airlines expected at the beginning of Q2—but demand remains constrained by uncertainty as consumers debate whether to indulge now or conserve their resources in anticipation of future financial strain. Airlines can either juice demand by lowering prices, or protect their bottom lines by cutting capacity and doubling down on premium experiences.

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