The news:The Krispy Kreme–McDonald’s marriage is ending. The announcement comes less than two months after the companies said they were pausing a nationwide rollout—despite doughnuts being available in 2,400 McDonald’s locations—to reassess the profitability of the expansion. Our take: The breakup with McDonald’s comes at a tough time for Krispy Kreme—and for many other quick-service chains. The company has pulled its 2025 forecast, paused its dividend, and is now refocusing on what matters most: boosting cash flow, improving efficiency, and growing in a way that actually makes money in the US. The McDonald’s partnership gave Krispy Kreme more visibility, but not enough profit. With costs rising and margins getting tighter, the company is shifting its focus from rapid expansion to ensuring its business is built to last.

The news: Target is testing a factory-direct shipping model that would enable it to offer lower-cost products to customers, per Bloomberg. The model, which lets suppliers ship products directly to shoppers, closely resembles the strategy used by Temu and Shein to keep prices low. Our take: Unfortunately for Target, now is not the best time to increase its reliance on overseas suppliers. While the Temu-Shein model worked spectacularly well for several years, the conditions that fueled their growth—namely, the de minimis exemption and low tariffs—are no longer in place.

The insight: Amazon is trying to make a bigger name for itself in the luxury sphere—a strategy that could help soften the blow from tariffs. Our take: That designer brands and retailers are eager to partner with Amazon despite its mixed track record in luxury shows the state of the industry, which is under serious pressure as economic uncertainty saps even affluent consumers’ desire to shop. Amazon’s extensive reach—three-quarters of US households are Prime users, per our forecast—and ability to drive spending even in times of volatility are making it an increasingly valuable partner for any brand looking to drive sales in an unsettled environment.

The situation: The escalating US-Iran conflict threatens to unleash fresh headwinds for the retail industry, which is already under pressure from the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies. Our take: Uncertainty has loomed over the industry all year, making it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan ahead with the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies. Case in point: The 90-day reciprocal tariff pause is set to expire on July 9, and there’s little clarity as to whether it will be extended or if the sweeping levies will take effect. The escalating US–Iran conflict only adds to the volatility, compounding the pressure on retailers. Together, these factors make it increasingly likely that the operating environment will remain murky for the remainder of the year.

The news: The European Commission said it would abandon efforts to pass a law against corporate greenwashing, citing a “simplification agenda” to remove red tape and make the EU more attractive for business. Our take: Many companies will take the easing of environmental oversight in the US and the EU as an excuse to water down their sustainability initiatives. That could lower costs in the short term—but at the risk of alienating the large swath of consumers who factor sustainability into their purchase decisions and are quick to identify greenwashing.

The trend: Summer retail sales are starting earlier and stretching longer than ever. Our take: Retailers aren’t just chasing summer sales—they’re building revenue engines that integrate ecommerce, loyalty programs, and retail media into a more durable flywheel. By making sales events exclusive to members or offering perks like early access to deals, they’re encouraging sign-ups, deepening engagement, and boosting long-term customer value. The longer promotional windows give retailers more time to drive discretionary spending, alleviate fulfillment bottlenecks, and monetize digital traffic through advertising. That’s especially critical this year, as economic uncertainty prompts more consumers to pull back on nonessential purchases.

The insight: Amazon is trying to figure out how it can benefit from the AI agentic boom without giving shopping agents unfettered access to its site, according to a report by The Information. Our take: While agentic commerce is far from the norm for the time being, retailers need to be prepared. That’s especially true for companies with retail media businesses, given the potential for AI agents to upend their ability to monetize their sites.

The trend: Casual dining chains that lean into value are luring cost-conscious consumers, even as broader economic uncertainty tempers discretionary spending. Our take: Consumers haven’t stopped dining out, but they’ve become more selective. They’re increasingly looking for value experiences that offer more for their money. That shift is pressuring some parts of the industry. Quick-service chains like McDonald’s and fine dining brands like Darden’s Ruth’s Chris and The Capital Grille are feeling the squeeze. But it’s providing an opportunity for casual dining chains that offer affordable indulgences. Their combination of sit-down service and budget-friendly pricing is hitting the mark.

Home Depot made a bid for GMS, a building products and tool supplier for both consumers and contractors, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Home Depot sees a significant opportunity to consolidate the fragmented construction supply and tool market—and it's moving at a moment when the US housing shortfall could drive sustained demand for new construction and renovation.

The insight: The vast majority—80%—of automakers’ $30 billion tariff costs next year will be passed along to the consumer, according to a report by AlixPartners. The consulting firm expects car prices to rise by $1,760 on average—which will slash US auto sales by 1 million over the next three years. Our take: Cars are an essential expense for a majority of Americans. But as the cost of ownership (including insurance, maintenance, and gas) rises, more consumers will be forced to cut spending in other areas. Those pressures could be particularly acute for households that rushed to buy vehicles before tariffs kicked in and are now struggling with higher monthly payments they hadn’t fully planned for.

The news: Temu’s foothold in the US is shrinking as the company pulls back sharply on advertising. Weekly sales slumped more than 25% YoY between May 11 and June 8, according to Bloomberg Second Measure. Our take: Given the importance of the US market to Temu and its merchants, it’s possible that its current pause on US ad spending and shift to Europe is a temporary effort to regroup as it searches for a business model more resistant to tariffs and the end of de minimis. At the same time, the longer the pause goes on, the more ground it will cede to Shein and other competitors—and the harder it will be to regain market share.

Housing hits more walls: Latest data show new signs of market weakening as builders pull back.

The situation: White-collar employment at US public companies has dropped 3.5% over the past three years, per Live Data Technologies data cited by The Wall Street Journal. The trend comes as companies face mounting pressure to cut overhead amid economic uncertainty—prompting executives to increasingly turn to automation to boost efficiency. Our take: White-collar job cuts, combined with rising tariffs and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, are creating an increasingly challenging environment for retailers heading into the second half of 2025—and likely beyond.

The news: Walmart-owned Sam’s Club is raising prices on select products in response to cost pressures from the Trump administration’s tariffs, The Wall Street Journal reports. Our take: Sam’s Club is on a roll. The retailer is generating record-high membership levels and plans to accelerate growth by opening about 15 new stores each year while remodeling existing locations. But how Sam’s Club handles tariff-driven price increases could determine whether its momentum continues—or stalls. The retailer faces a delicate balancing act in deciding when to absorb rising costs and when to pass them on. The stakes are high. A misstep could either erode profit margins or drive a decline in membership renewals—both of which are essential to its business model.

The insight: Walmart sees a (near) future where customers will shop directly from their smart TVs—preferably one powered by Vizio, which the retailer purchased for $2.3 billion last year. Our take: Shoppers are gradually becoming more comfortable with the concept of shoppable TV. Whether those occasional behaviors become habit will depend on platforms’ ability to offer ads that are personalized and relevant. That puts Walmart at an advantage, given its troves of first-party data—although it faces tough competition from the likes of Amazon and Roku.

The news: Amazon announced its Prime Day event will run from July 8 at 12:01 a.m. PDT through July 11, starting eight days earlier than last year and lasting twice as long as previous events. Our take: Amazon recognizes that while consumers have grown more selective about when and where they spend, many will still jump at the chance to save if they find compelling offers. By extending Prime Day’s duration, adding tech-driven shopping tools, and broadening its footprint across countries and third-party sites, Amazon is turning the event into an inescapable, large-scale retail moment. Even in a margin-squeezed environment, the visibility and sales potential of Prime Day may be too significant for sellers to pass up.

The news: Costco plans to open a standalone gas station next spring in Mission Viejo, a city in Orange County, California. The 40-pump station, which will be the membership club’s largest to date, will be about two miles from two existing Costco warehouses—one of which already has a gas station. Our take: Costco is investing in ways to reinforce the value of membership, and fuel is central to that equation. If this off-site station succeeds, it could set the stage for a broader rollout of standalone locations—especially in high-traffic markets. The move could also prompt rivals like Sam’s Club to follow suit as competition in the warehouse club space heats up.

The news: US retail sales fell more than expected in May from April, the latest sign that tariff fears and economic volatility are affecting consumer spending. Our take: While May’s retail sales data largely show that consumers are hanging in, the situation remains unpredictable—especially given the fact that tariff-driven price hikes have yet to kick in for a multitude of everyday purchases, including groceries and apparel.

The news: Pinterest is partnering with Instacart to allow advertisers to power their campaigns using the latter’s first-party data—a move that will enhance the value of both companies’ ad platforms while advancing Pinterest’s shoppable ambitions. Our take: Pinterest’s ability to engage the all-important Gen Z cohort, along with its role as a source of inspiration and product discovery, is making it a more strategic asset for brands and retailers. As economic uncertainty drives companies to be more careful with their ad dollars, Pinterest’s ability to reach audiences at every stage of their customer journey—now bolstered by access to Instacart’s first-party data—positions it as an even more valuable partner.

The news: Weaker-than-expected travel demand is driving JetBlue Airways to launch cost-cutting measures, including eliminating underperforming routes, ending service in some cities, halting nonessential aircraft refreshes, and restructuring its leadership team, per Bloomberg. Our take: Macro uncertainty is compounding the pressures on already struggling companies—whether it’s JetBlue, auto parts maker Marelli, or home furnishings retailer At Home—as each grapples with weakened demand, rising costs, and limited financial flexibility.