Shoppers’ search for value is steering them to budget-friendly retailers—off-price chains, dollar stores, and other discounters—that benefited from a surge in sales and traffic in Q2. Value is top-of-mind for today’s consumer, regardless of income level. That’s good news for discounters and dollar stores, which are ideally placed to benefit from consumers’ financial anxieties. However, risks such as renewed tariffs or dips in consumer confidence mean retailers need to carefully manage their assortments and pricing.

Abercrombie & Fitch reported record revenues in Q2 as soaring demand among Gen Z teens for Hollister offset weakness at its namesake brand. Abercrombie is navigating the current environment as well as any retailer—especially one with considerable tariff exposure—could. While minimizing tariff costs remains a key priority, Abercrombie’s sharp focus on the fundamentals—delivering products that people want—will help guide it through uncertainty.

The news: Fanatics launched Fanatics Advertising, a division that will oversee the company’s ad and brand partnership strategy across its commerce, collectibles, gaming, and events businesses. Our take: Fanatics is taking its swing at the fast-growing commerce media space. Commerce media represented 18.0% of US digital ad spending last year, and we expect its share to keep climbing—hitting nearly $1 of every $5 spent on digital ads (19.7%) this year and close to $1 in $4 (24.8%) by 2029, the end of our forecast period. Sitting at the crossroads of sports fandom—merchandise, collectibles, betting, and live events—Fanatics has a brand position few, if any, rivals can match. If it executes well, Fanatics Advertising could be a home run by turning its unmatched access to fans into an equally powerful ad play.

Kohl’s reported a better-than-expected Q2 profit as it controlled expenses and reintroduced phased-out product assortments, hinting at early signs of traction despite sales declines. The retailer is taking steps to stabilize, but it faces a mammoth challenge to move sales to growth—not just lessen the declines. As shoppers scrutinize every dollar they spend, Kohl’s needs to show it can deliver the right products at the right price—and find ways to stand out in an increasingly crowded field by bolstering loyalty perks, leaning more on personalized offerings to consumers, and communicating clearly what it wants to be known for. That won’t be easy for a retailer whose core shoppers remain heavily reliant on coupons and discounts.

Lego continues to outperform the toy industry by delivering products that appeal to both children and adults while expanding brand awareness in Asia. While we expect US toy and hobby sales to grow just 2.0% this year, Lego is increasingly in a league of its own. The company’s all-ages appeal, IP partnerships, and brick-and-mortar strategy are working in tandem to drive sales and encourage lasting loyalty.

The situation: Williams-Sonoma is raising prices on select items after its incremental tariff rate doubled since May—from 14% to 28%—due to higher duties on goods from China, India, and Vietnam. More pressure may be ahead after President Donald Trump recently signaled plans to increase tariffs on furniture imports. Our take: Despite operating in the sluggish furniture and home furnishings category—which we project will grow just 0.4% this year—Williams-Sonoma is well-positioned to weather macroeconomic headwinds. Anchored by a diverse brand portfolio that resonates with affluent consumers across life stages, its multipronged strategy—price increases, cost discipline, supply chain improvements, and AI-driven efficiencies—not only will offset tariff pressures but also lay a durable foundation for sustained growth and market share expansion.

The Q2 performances of Amazon, Walmart, and Target illustrate the retailers’ diverging fortunes as shoppers reassess their spending priorities. While uncertainty is funneling more dollars toward Amazon and Walmart, customers are steering clear of Target—due both to a lackluster assortment and frustration over its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) flip-flopping. Walmart and Amazon are pulling ahead as their relentless focus on value—in the form of speed, selection, and convenience—make them the first stop for shoppers buying everything from essentials like groceries to discretionary items like beauty and apparel. That leaves Target’s new CEO, Michael Fiddelke, with the unenviable task of having to turn the retailer around just as tariffs threaten its bottom line and undermine its core discretionary business.

The luxury industry has a counterfeit problem. Counterfeits pose a serious challenge for brands and the growing number of secondhand platforms that specialize in luxury resale. The more convincing these superfakes get, the harder it will be for companies like LVMH to justify their high price points—and harder still for platforms like Vestiaire and The RealReal to keep fake goods off their marketplaces.

The news: Urban Outfitters is partnering with Levi’s for the second iteration of On Rotation, its limited-time concept launched earlier this year with Nike to deliver community-driven, experience-rich retail environments for Gen Z. Our take: On Rotation recasts retail as a series of limited-edition experiential drops, with physical and digital spaces that vanish almost as quickly as they appear. It’s a storytelling-fueled scarcity play that’s designed to train a generation of shoppers who never grew up as mall rats to return again and again in search of novelty. The approach reframes the store—and the website—as a medium for culture, not just commerce, and offers a playbook that department stores and other retailers would be smart to test.

Walmart will offer next-day delivery in select cities for some marketplace orders, the company said. The service will be available to customers in New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta, and Houston, with plans to eventually expand to more areas. t’s no accident that Walmart is making a play for urban customers at the same time that Amazon is going after rural households. Both retailers see opportunities to win over the other’s core customer base by offering a compelling combination of convenience and low prices.

Aldi will open a store in New York City’s Times Square next year as part of its aggressive expansion strategy, per media reports. The 25,000-square-foot shop will be located in The Ellery, a new luxury apartment building near the edge of the highly-trafficked neighborhood—making clear the discount grocer’s intentions of wooing more affluent shoppers as it grows its presence in major US cities.

The news: Keurig Dr Pepper will acquire JDE Peet’s for €15.7 billion ($18.4 billion) to revive its struggling coffee arm before splitting into two public companies. The deal will create a coffee powerhouse by merging KDP with JDE Peet’s global brands that include Peet’s, L’OR, Jacobs, and Douwe Egberts.

The news: Netflix will open its first Netflix House location at King of Prussia Mall outside Philadelphia on November 12, with a second location at Galleria Dallas beginning business on December 12, per Variety. A third location is set to open next year in Las Vegas. Our take: The large entertainment-and-retail hubs will serve as experiential billboards for Netflix’s IP. By melding marketing with monetization, Netflix House should help the streamer keep its hits relevant and boost awareness of emerging titles, while also converting fandom into foot traffic and sales. If visitors find the spaces engaging, they should draw attention to Netflix IP at a time when streamers face intense competition for viewers, while also generating revenues from fans eager to step inside the worlds they watch on screen. That could create a virtuous loop as deeper engagement often drives greater loyalty to both the titles and to Netflix itself.

Temu parent PDD posted its slowest revenue growth in Q2 since the end of 2021, as it struggles to navigate a weak consumer environment in China and regulatory challenges in the US and other key markets. While PDD’s Q2 results beat expectations, they show how the company’s primary strategy of undercutting competitors with cheaper prices is becoming untenable in the current political and macroeconomic landscape.

The situation: A significant share of consumers are putting eating out on the chopping block as tariffs carve into their budgets. 43% could cut back on full-service restaurants, while 42% are rethinking fast-casual, per a CivicScience consumer survey. Chains seen as pricey—or lacking a clear bang-for-the-buck—are especially vulnerable, as shown by sluggish results at “slop bowl” brands like Cava and Sweetgreen. To stay off the block themselves, restaurants from McDonald’s to Applebee’s are leaning hard into value plays. Our take: Consumers haven’t lost their appetite for dining out, but with budgets under pressure, they want to be sure they’re getting their money’s worth. Restaurants that serve up value will thrive; those that don’t could get carved up as tariffs pinch wallets.

Louis Vuitton’s forthcoming beauty launch will test its pricing power. The brand is betting that premium packaging and high-quality products designed by makeup maven Pat McGrath will convince shoppers to spend $160 on a single lipstick—a risky assumption given the headwinds plaguing the luxury industry. In order for La Beauté Louis Vuitton to succeed, the brand will have to prove to customers that its products are worth the hefty price tag. That’s easier said than done, given waning enthusiasm for premium beauty and the growing popularity of low-cost dupes.

Labubu is well on its way to being a $1 billion business for maker Pop Mart. The retailer’s Monsters IP, which includes Labubu, generated RMB 4.81 billion ($671 million) in the first half of 2025, a staggering 668% increase YoY. While the history of toy fads suggests that the Labubu craze will soon fade, it could be extremely lucrative in the short term—and not just for Pop Mart. Although the retailer is fiercely protective of its IP, plenty of brands and retailers would be happy to benefit from a temporary Labubu bump.

The situation: The so-called de minimis trade loophole, which lets foreign packages under $800 enter the US tariff-free, closes Friday, August 29. The White House already ended the exemption for shipments from China and Hong Kong on May 2. Companies have had little time to prepare since President Donald Trump signed the executive order in late July. Many are now scrambling to adjust. Our take: With no end to tariff-related instability in sight, companies must find ways to adapt to an uncertain trade landscape. It’s become a business imperative.

The news: Macy’s Media Network, the department store’s retail media arm, will test a partnership with Amazon Retail Ad Service—the ecommerce giant’s ad tech product for other retailers. The pilot will launch in early Q4, just ahead of the holiday season. Our take: Macy’s is the first major retailer to test Amazon’s ad product since its January debut, making this a high-profile proving ground. The pilot will show whether Amazon can drive incremental ad spend for retailers, and crucially, whether other chains are comfortable sharing data with a direct competitor. The results will have ripple effects across the ad tech ecosystem. If the partnership proves effective, Amazon Retail Ad Service could emerge as a meaningful threat to intermediaries like Criteo and Publicis, which have built strong businesses helping brands navigate retail media. It would also open another lucrative revenue stream for Amazon’s already fast-growing ad arm, strengthening its position at the center of digital commerce.

The insight: Retail buyers are leaning on AI and earlier ordering to prepare for a highly uncertain holiday season, according to a new survey by Deloitte. Our take: Suppliers have done what they can to ensure shelves are stocked this holiday season. But that may not be enough to tempt wary shoppers: We expect holiday sales growth to decelerate sharply to 1.2% this year as tariffs test buying behaviors and weigh on confidence.