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Retailers brace as political, economic risks rise in EU's top markets

The backdrop: The EU’s two largest economies face different but converging risks.

  • Germany’s economy contracted 0.3% in Q2—worse than the preliminary -0.1% estimate—as manufacturing slumped after a temporary surge in US orders aimed at dodging tariffs, per Destatis.
  • French Prime Minister François Bayrou will seek a vote of confidence in the National Assembly on September 8, a move likely to topple the government and inject fresh uncertainty into an economy heavily reliant on consumer spending. A political crisis could even push France into recession, Carrefour SA CEO Alexandre Bompard warned, per Bloomberg.

Why it matters: France and Germany wield outsize influence in the eurozone, with their combined GDP making up nearly half (48%) of the bloc’s total. Shifts in their consumer spending can send ripples across the continent.

  • In Germany, consumer sentiment remains fragile. Confidence weakened in August as income and economic expectations dropped sharply, per NielsenIQ. Consumers’ willingness to buy and save slipped slightly, leaving retailers in a tough position.

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