The news: Generative AI (genAI) is expected to play a bigger role than ever in ecommerce during Amazon’s Prime Day event this week. Adobe predicts that genAI-driven traffic will surge 3,200% YoY as more consumers use AI for searching for products, price matching, and purchasing decisions. Our take: While still trailing traditional channels like paid search and email, AI is winning consumer trust and influencing higher-consideration purchases. Marketers that can tailor shopping content around AI search could help their clients gain visibility. Structure product data, promotions, and sales content for AI interfaces like chatbots, shopping agents, and search for more conversational browsing with a higher conversion rate.
The challenge: Chocolate makers are feeling the squeeze as cocoa powder prices have jumped nearly 16% YoY due to a global shortage, per Bloomberg. Our take: Small price increases add up—especially in an environment where consumers are still scarred by the coronavirus-era wave of inflation. Today’s shoppers are hyperaware of price hikes and increasingly willing to switch brands, delay purchases, or trade down. That puts added pressure on retailers and manufacturers to either justify price increases through quality and innovation—or find new ways to absorb rising costs without compromising brand trust.
The situation: QSRs are in a tough spot. The restaurant industry had monthly traffic growth in just one of the 12 months through May, according to Black Box Intelligence data cited by CNBC. Our take: QSRs can’t afford to stand still. In a tough operating environment, brands that act decisively and innovate boldly are best positioned to outpace the macroeconomic headwinds. Even if every move doesn’t deliver an immediate payoff, momentum matters—and sitting on the sidelines is the riskiest strategy of all.
The insight: Fashion M&A activity is drying up as uncertainty and structural challenges dampen investor interest. The number of deals in the apparel and accessories category fell nearly 40% YoY globally in Q2, according to PitchBook data reported by Modern Retail. Our take: The current macroeconomic environment is not conducive to most M&A activity, as uncertainty pushes companies to conserve resources and focus on their core businesses. But for retailers in a relative position of strength, now could be the time to make strategic acquisitions that either reinforce their existing advantages or enable them to diversify.
41% of US Amazon Prime members will spend more time shopping on Amazon due to a longer Prime Day event this year, according to May 2025 data from Tinuiti.
The news: Gen Z’s share of private label spending will overtake that of baby boomers by 2026, according to a Numerator report. Our take: Gen Z’s affinity for private labels is part of a broader behavioral shift—one that retailers are making the most of. To encourage loyalty among this notoriously fickle cohort, companies will need to stay on top of emerging food trends, foster exclusivity and a sense of urgency with limited-edition releases, and make sure they satisfy Gen Zers’ desire for attractive packaging, transparent labeling, and sustainability.
The news: 82% of travelers are interested in using points from non-travel loyalty programs to book trips, per a report from Expedia—including 43% who are extremely interested. Our take: Capturing expensive travel purchases is critical to reinforcing issuers’ card volume as economic anxieties make consumers spend less.
The news: Mastercard and Fiserv will offer Clover hardware rental fees for just $0.01 per month to the first 1,000 merchants who sign up for the network’s US Small Business Navigator platform, per a press release.Our take: Mastercard and Clover both want to secure small business market share.
The eye-catching headline: “Amazon Prime Day Spending Down 14% in Early Hours From 2024” blared from one report, citing early data from Momentum Commerce, which manages Amazon sales for brands like Crocs and Beats that total roughly $7 billion in annual volume on the platform. Our take: Prime Day is on track to become the biggest sales event in Amazon’s history. While early-hour softness and lower per-day comparisons may raise some eyebrows, the full picture tells a different story: Total revenues will shatter records thanks to a powerful mix of deal-hungry shoppers, tariff-driven urgency, and a high-margin advertising engine firing on all cylinders.
The news: Prime members approved for the Prime Visa credit card will receive a $250 Amazon gift card as a welcome bonus during Amazon’s Prime Day multi-day promotional sales event. Our take: Amazon is trying to optimize its utility for the everyday consumer to deepen its dominance in the American market.
The news: Amazon has partnered with delivery firm Gopuff to bring ultra-fast delivery to several UK markets, including Birmingham, Cambridge, Leeds, London, and Manchester. Our take: Amazon’s focus is crystal clear: Get orders to shoppers’ doors as fast as possible. In the US, it has pushed next-day delivery as the new standard—even as it rapidly expands same-day service. In some cases, delivery happens within hours (for example, a Prime Day order we placed at 6 am today arrived at our door by noon.) To extend that promise beyond urban hubs, Amazon is investing over $4 billion through 2026 to triple the size of its rural delivery network. By year-end, it expects to bring same- or next-day delivery to more than 4,000 smaller cities and rural communities. Speed isn’t just a perk. It is the key component within Amazon’s growth strategy. The faster the company delivers, the more frequently consumers turn to Amazon for their everyday needs—and the harder it becomes for competitors to keep up.
As Walmart celebrates its 63rd birthday this year, the retail giant continues to differentiate itself through data capabilities, technological innovation, and a willingness to experiment with new strategies.
The news: Retail media infrastructure firm Topsort is helping major retailers like Woolworths, Kohl’s, and Magalu grow ad revenues by 60% in a single month, per CEO Regina Ye. Topsort’s Data Genie tool converts billions of data points into instant insights and replaces legacy analytics systems that delay campaign execution. Our take: With budget exhaustion, measurement complexity, and system fragmentation among top buyer complaints, retailers are eager to modernize. Topsort’s AI-powered tools offer transparency, speed, and flexibility—values that align closely with where the market is heading. The bigger question: Will fall product updates bring true interoperability or further entrench silos?
The situation: A cloud of uncertainty has hung over the US economy since the Trump administration’s April 9 pause of so-called reciprocal tariffs. That’s made it difficult for retailers and brands to plan for the short and medium term. The outlook is now poised to grow even murkier. President Donald Trump extended the pause period—originally set to expire on Wednesday—until August 1. At the same time, he announced new 25% tariffs on imports from South Korea and Japan, also taking effect August 1, along with steep additional levies on other countries. Our take: With companies planning to pass on about 70% of the cost of levies to consumers via higher prices, it’s no surprise that we expect tariffs to take a meaningful bite out of retail sales this year—whether we remain in the moderate scenario or shift into a heavier one. In such a dynamic environment, retailers and brands should rely on scenario modeling that accounts for a range of possible futures. They can hope for the best but plan for the worst to ensure they’re ready to adapt to whatever twists lie ahead.
The opportunity: Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom are gaining ground while some of their luxury rivals stumble. Our take: Execution matters—especially in a luxury market where consumers are increasingly anxious about the economy. These shoppers have little tolerance for poor experiences, operational missteps, or inventory gaps. Retailers that deliver consistency, trust, and seamless service will be best positioned to retain loyalty and capture share.
The commerce media space is growing fast, and as it gets more crowded, it’s becoming harder to keep up with the retail media giants. But by teaming up, smaller players can more easily scale their networks to achieve the reach to stay competitive.
The news: Wegmans added Instacart’s Caper Carts—AI-powered smart carts—to a store in Syracuse, New York. Our take: Wegmans has staked its brand on exceptional customer service.
The news: Changes to Amex’s and Chase’s credit card welcome offers do away with guaranteed points for new cardholders, per CNET. Our take: Amex and Chase are trying to maximize their marketing appeal while also limiting their rewards costs.
The news: Credit card delinquencies have sunk to their lowest levels in two years, within striking distance of pre-pandemic levels, per data from VantageScore’s Credit Gauge. Our take: Fewer issuers are tightening their credit card lending standards, but those looking to gain sign ups face troubled waters—consumer demand for credit cards fell in April by the most since the early days of the pandemic, per the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Survey.
The situation: A perfect storm of consumer pullbacks, rising prices from new tariffs, and the suspension of the de minimis tax exemption will drag US ecommerce sales growth this year to its weakest pace since the Great Recession in 2009. We expect US online sales to grow just 5.0% this year in our moderate tariff scenario, which reflects the current policy landscape. That’s a 3-percentage-point drop from last year. Looking ahead: We expect ecommerce growth to experience a modest rebound to 5.3% growth in 2026. But more headwinds are on the horizon. The tax-and-spending package known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will close the de minimis loophole that lets most packages under $800 enter duty-free from countries outside China and Hong Kong. While that will eliminate the possibility of some workarounds, it could also reshape the economics of cross-border ecommerce—and place even more strain on platforms, suppliers, and price-sensitive consumers alike.