The situation: Consumers are taking a somewhat conservative approach to back-to-school shopping this year, per a new Deloitte report.

• 62% aim to shop within a fixed budget.
• 67% will shift brands if they consider their preferred brand too expensive.

Those changing priorities haven’t gone unnoticed as 50% of retail executives say consumers will value low prices over loyalty.

The forecasts: However, while consumers may report being stingier this year, we expect overall back-to-school sales to rise 3.2% year over year (YoY) to $81.16 billion. That’s in line with historical norms.

• Although they are not apples to apples comparisons, Deloitte expects spending to be roughly flat with last year and the National Retail Federation forecasts a 6.5% dip from last year’s record high.
• Even as consumers say they’re zeroing in on price and value, 85% of Deloitte respondents say they could be convinced to splurge on an item or brand to make the start of the school year more exciting or provide a boost to their child’s self-confidence.
• At the same time, half (50%) plan to purchase something for themselves, which represents a clear opportunity for retailers to drive incremental revenues.

Driving shoppers to spend: Best Buy, Amazon, Target, and Walmart are just a few of the retailers that have leaned on high-profile sales events to convince shoppers to begin their back-to-school shopping in June or July; the approach seems to be working as 18% of consumers intended to start shopping in June, up seven percentage points from a year ago, per a Sensormatic Solutions survey.

Meanwhile, several others are adopting unique strategies, including:

• Macy’s, which hosted a Prime Day-like All-Star Week sale, and emphasized value as it relaunched its Epic Threads brand that includes over 200 pieces of children’s clothing and accessories priced between $10 and $50.
• Kohl’s, which also hosted a July sale, is leaning into nostalgia as tween-focused apparel brand Limited Too relaunches in its stores and online after a 15-year hiatus. The retailer is also adding items from Aéropostale and Madden Girl as part of its push to lean on established brands to drive shoppers to spend.
• Meijer launched a new private label brand featuring back-to-school staples such as markers, crayons, colored pencils, glue sticks, and glue. It also offers a digital tool that makes it easy for shoppers to enter their ZIP codes, search for their school's supply lists, and then add those items to their carts with a single click.
• Old Navy is offering a one-year money-back guarantee that all school uniforms will stand up to the wear and tear of a school year.

The big takeaway: Given consumers’ spending patterns, retailers should look for every possible opportunity to emphasize value. Time is of the essence, as 66% of shoppers planned to start back-to-school shopping by the end of July, per Deloitte.