Online return volumes dipped 2.5% YoY early in the holiday season, though momentum slowed after Cyber Week and a surge is still expected post-Christmas, consistent with retailers’ forecasts that returns will represent 15.8% of annual sales. To curb costly returns, merchants are improving product detail pages and adopting tools like virtual try-on, while many are also adding return fees—moves that risk dampening demand as shoppers grow wary of stricter policies. A smoother, more supportive returns experience remains critical, as most consumers hesitate to buy when returns seem difficult and reward retailers that make the process easy and fast.

UK holiday spending is expected to rise 3.5% this year, according to PwC, with average spending per shopper projected to increase 2.7%, driven in part by younger consumers planning to increase their budgets. Beneath the surface, however, the outlook is less robust. After accounting for inflation, sales volumes are likely to be flat or slightly negative, as most shoppers expect to spend the same amount as last year, and higher prices shape behavior. Tepid consumer confidence and rising living costs are pushing households to manage spending more carefully, a dynamic likely to carry over into 2026 and increase pressure on retailers to deliver clear value.

Walmart wants discretion to refuse cards based on their issuer at the point-of-sale, per an objection filed in response to the proposed settlement to end the decadeslong interchange fee legal battle. While new types of fee agreements with banks remain entirely speculative at this point, it’s unclear whether a patchwork quilt of deals with issuers would benefit Walmart. Discontinuing acceptance of certain issuers at the POS will likely cause just as much friction for consumers as the purportedly “useless” changes to the honor all cards rule, especially if Walmart stands alone in its issuer blacklist.