66% of U.S. adults have reduced nonessential shopping to manage expenses, according to March 2025 data from CivicScience.

The tactic: Levi Strauss is reducing its SKU count—even as it expands the range of items it sells—to minimize tariff costs and maximize full-price sales. Our take: SKU rationalization is becoming a necessity for Levi Strauss and other brands and retailers looking to manage the impact of tariffs.

The news: The trade war between the US and the rest of the world is heating up again, thanks to President Donald Trump’s latest threats to boost universal tariffs and impose stiffer duties on Canada and Brazil. Our take: The newly announced duties—should they come to pass—will push the US into the heavy tariff scenario outlined in our tariff report. Based on our forecast, that would mean a 1% decline in retail sales this year, the first contraction since 2009, as rising prices force consumers to prioritize essentials.

The news: President Trump is threatening 200% tariffs on pharma products, but the 1+ year lag in enforcement gives drugmakers time to increase US manufacturing. Our take: While 200% is an exorbitant tariff rate, the year-long reprieve is a win for drugmakers. It gives them time to move product and double down on US manufacturing commitments, and also opens a big window for change with the capricious Trump administration.

The insight: Prime Day got off to a strong start, according to Adobe data, despite alternative reports of a dip in spending. Our take: The early Prime Day enthusiasm is an encouraging sign for Amazon, which is counting on the event to not only boost sales but also unlock additional ad revenues. It could also be a good sign for retailers running competing sales. While we ultimately expect the longer sales period to benefit the ecommerce giant, shoppers’ growing awareness of other events—and propensity to comparison-shop—could help retailers like Walmart and Target grow their share of an increasingly lucrative shopping period.

The news: US ad employment continued its downward trend in June, with jobs in advertising, public relations, and related fields decreasing by 700 jobs, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment report. The decrease marks the seventh consecutive month of ad industry job losses, per Ad Age. Our take: Rather than a temporary slump, declining ad employment is marking a structural shift that risks prioritizing cost-cutting and short-term efficiency over human insight and brand-building expertise.

On today’s podcast episode, we discuss the ingredients of Walmart’s current recipe for success and the technology that’s most likely to propel them into the future. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Vice President of Content Suzy Davidkhanian and Analyst Rachel Wolff.

Our analysts took a look at the first half of this eventful year and provided their own very specific—albeit unlikely—predictions at what could happen in the second half of the year and beyond.

The news: TikTok commerce traffic has trended down throughout 2025 amid uncertainty about the app’s future in the US. Our take: Trump’s extension gives TikTok more time to reach a deal but does little to ease the internal disruption from ByteDance’s austerity drive. New tariffs and the elimination of the de minimis exemption could hinder TikTok Shop’s performance.

The news: As the 2025 economy tightens under the pressure of tariffs, AI disruption, and shifting global trade policy, brands are embracing adaptability. Retail growth forecasts have been slashed, inflation-wary consumers are scaling back, and even luxury sentiment is weakening. Our take: Resilient brands are leaning into agile planning, reallocating media spend to ROI-focused channels like search and digital out-of-home, and anchoring value in trust and quality—not just price. As emotional volatility shapes consumer decisions, marketers who show relevance and reassurance will lead. The brands that win won’t wait for stability—they’ll build strategies that succeed amid constant change.

The situation: Nike’s turnaround will likely take some time. In FYQ4, the company’s sales fell 12% YoY (11% on a constant-currency basis), reflecting what CFO Matthew Friend called the “largest financial impact” from the company’s reset strategy. Still, he expressed confidence that “headwinds will moderate from here,” emphasizing Nike’s focus on execution and controlling what it can. Our take: Turning around a company the size of Nike is like trying to turn around an ocean liner in rough waters. Change takes time, especially amid headwinds like tariffs and shaky demand, and execution missteps keep dragging on performance. Nike is adjusting course—leaning back into wholesale, cleaning up its inventory, and getting more surgical with product drops—but calm seas are still a ways off.

H&M moves to diversify sourcing amid tariff threat: The move will enable it to stay competitive with Zara and minimize tariffs’ impact on its bottom line

The trend: Value-seeking behavior is on the rise, though not without some volatility, per Deloitte. Our take: Consumers’ growing focus on value doesn’t necessarily mean they want the cheapest option. In fact, up to 40% of how consumers evaluate value comes from nonprice factors, per a separate Deloitte study. That’s a critical distinction for brands. While it can be tempting to lean into discounts, a narrow focus on price cuts can hurt long-term brand equity. Brands that offer added value—through better quality, service, loyalty programs, or other innovations—are seeing stronger purchase intent and increasing consumer share.

The trend: A perfect macroeconomic storm is causing younger consumers to cut back on spending. Our take: These pressures aren’t going away anytime soon. The Trump administration’s tariffs are leading retailers like Walmart, Best Buy, and Macy’s to raise prices—putting even more strain on young shoppers already feeling stretched. At the same time, job anxieties are growing. The white collar workforce is shrinking, and more companies are citing AI as a reason for layoffs. Put it all together, and it’s likely that younger consumers will remain cautious with their spending for some time, especially on nonessentials. Retailers that want to win over this group will need to focus on offering value such as high-quality, private label products.

Latin America’s ad market will surpass $40 billion this year as it continues to defy economic uncertainty. Rebounds in Argentina and Chile, along with double-digit growth in retail and social media spending, will fuel momentum. Here are the latest trends you need to know.

The rest of the year is top-of-mind for leaders in marketing and retail, which they expect to be challenging but riddled with opportunities to stand out from competition.

The situation: The escalating US-Iran conflict threatens to unleash fresh headwinds for the retail industry, which is already under pressure from the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies. Our take: Uncertainty has loomed over the industry all year, making it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan ahead with the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies. Case in point: The 90-day reciprocal tariff pause is set to expire on July 9, and there’s little clarity as to whether it will be extended or if the sweeping levies will take effect. The escalating US–Iran conflict only adds to the volatility, compounding the pressure on retailers. Together, these factors make it increasingly likely that the operating environment will remain murky for the remainder of the year.

The insight: The vast majority—80%—of automakers’ $30 billion tariff costs next year will be passed along to the consumer, according to a report by AlixPartners. The consulting firm expects car prices to rise by $1,760 on average—which will slash US auto sales by 1 million over the next three years. Our take: Cars are an essential expense for a majority of Americans. But as the cost of ownership (including insurance, maintenance, and gas) rises, more consumers will be forced to cut spending in other areas. Those pressures could be particularly acute for households that rushed to buy vehicles before tariffs kicked in and are now struggling with higher monthly payments they hadn’t fully planned for.

The news: Temu’s foothold in the US is shrinking as the company pulls back sharply on advertising. Weekly sales slumped more than 25% YoY between May 11 and June 8, according to Bloomberg Second Measure. Our take: Given the importance of the US market to Temu and its merchants, it’s possible that its current pause on US ad spending and shift to Europe is a temporary effort to regroup as it searches for a business model more resistant to tariffs and the end of de minimis. At the same time, the longer the pause goes on, the more ground it will cede to Shein and other competitors—and the harder it will be to regain market share.

US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.