The news: The 2025 economy is marked by uncertainty, with brands navigating rising tariffs, shifting trade agendas, and AI disruption. The winning brands won’t wait for calm skies; they’ll build systems that thrive in the storm.

• Retail growth is expected to slow significantly, with EMARKETER forecasting just 1.5% growth under moderate tariff conditions—nearly half of previous expectations.
• Inflation has eased, but consumers remain anxious: 60% are tracking spending more closely, and more than one in three are cutting back on essentials like groceries or leaning on credit more often.
• Economic sentiment among luxury consumers dropped 13 points in one quarter, while the travel industry is experiencing more last-minute bookings and falling fares.
• CEO confidence, though slightly up in June, still trails 2024 levels and hinges on the belief that current trade tensions will subside—a risky bet given global instability and regulatory shifts.

EMARKETER analysts will issue guidance on how to recession-proof your business at our webinar on July 1; you can register here.

Why it matters:

• Long-term planning is giving way to agile forecasting, with marketers expected to shift from static annual plans to frameworks that respond to weekly or monthly signals.
• Media dollars are expected to move away from awareness-heavy platforms like CTV and social media under tariff pressure, flowing instead to performance channels like search and digital OOH where ROI is more immediate and measurable.

What consumers want: Value perception is evolving: 40% of consumers now weigh factors like service, brand trust, and quality alongside price when making decisions, creating opportunity for marketers to compete on more than cost.

Brands need to act as “anchors” during volatility; those that convey reassurance and relevance more likely to gain share in moments of disruption. Some of the world’s most valuable brands keep investing in brand marketing during uncertain times—and if you can afford to, you should too.

Our take: Agility is no longer optional—it’s the new baseline. Brands building flexible plans tied to real-time behavior are more likely to thrive in a climate where unpredictability is the only constant.

• Value-driven differentiation matters more than ever. Brands that center quality, service, and authenticity over race-to-the-bottom pricing will build stronger long-term equity.
• As budgets tighten, media mix recalibration is inevitable. Channels with clearer performance signals and faster feedback loops are now must-haves, not nice-to-haves.
• The smartest brands won’t just react—they’ll create. Whether by leveraging known cultural moments or inventing their own, the ability to deliver joy and resonance in a risk-averse market will separate leaders from laggards.