Our analysts took a look at the first half of this eventful year and provided their own very specific—albeit unlikely—predictions at what could happen in the second half of the year and beyond.
These predictions, made across two episodes of our “Behind the Numbers” podcast, may seem far-fetched, but they're grounded in current market trends, offering a look into how tech companies and retailers are strategizing for the years ahead.
Prediction: GenAI will more than double the digital audio ad market by 2029
Voice commerce has struggled to gain traction, but AI could finally make it viable by creating more natural, contextual interactions. Google, Amazon, and Apple are all pushing further into conversational audio, advancing products like Alexa and Siri.
“This basically puts together a perfect storm of conditions to grow an ad market really, really quickly,” said our analyst Max Willens, predicting these conversational assistants will seamlessly integrate sponsored content.
When asked about something like what camping stove to buy, Alexa might respond with a sponsored promotion for a specific product.
The key challenge will be balancing monetization with user experience—too many ads could alienate users, while well-integrated sponsored content could enhance the value proposition.
Prediction: OpenAI will make a bid for Snap
The acquisition would give OpenAI immediate access to hundreds of millions of users and valuable data on trends, behaviors, and content creation. For Snapchat, which has struggled to maintain growth against competitors like TikTok and Instagram, OpenAI's resources could provide a lifeline and new technological capabilities.
“OpenAI has been rumored to be looking to build its own social network,” said our analyst Yoram Wurmser. “Snapchat is cheap … for Open AI.” Snap’s user and creator data could help train OpenAI’s models and build out its AR and commerce capabilities.
Additionally, Snapchat is one of the few social networks expected to lose users this year, potentially making it an attractive acquisition target at a lower valuation.
Prediction: Paramount will divest from some cable assets
Following in the footsteps of Comcast/NBCUniversal and Warner Brothers Discovery spinning off cable assets, Paramount could divest from networks like BET and Nickelodeon. For media companies, these divestitures represent a focus on digital growth areas rather than maintaining declining legacy businesses.
“Audiences are going to streaming,” said our analyst Paul Verna. "There's no turning back that tide. And every one of these media companies is struggling in general, but particularly with their linear TV assets."
Prediction: Starbucks will launch a stablecoin
Rumors of Amazon and Walmart launching their own cryptocurrencies could push Starbucks to beat them to market. The company's tech-forward approach under its new CEO, including recent AI implementations for baristas, suggests a willingness to experiment with emerging tech.
“It's truly a no-brainer in that there are close to zero fees, it's instant payment, [and retailers] get to improve their cash flow,” said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian. Starbuck’s loyalty program and digital wallet already have high adoption, meaning consumers may be open to a stablecoin and the currency could integrate into Starbucks’ existing digital wallet.
While consumer adoption remains a significant hurdle, Starbucks' strong digital ecosystem positions it well to introduce financial innovation.
Prediction: Ecommerce growth will flatline
After years of explosive growth, particularly during the pandemic, ecommerce may be approaching a plateau in mature markets like the US.
“The three largest categories of ecommerce—apparel, consumer electronics, and home furnishings—which make up about 47% of US ecommerce sales, are all expected to grow between 2 and 3% this year,” said our analyst Blake Droesch. He warned that consumer confidence, already at near-record lows, could deteriorate further due to tariff uncertainties and global instability.
Retailers will need to focus on efficiency and customer retention rather than expecting continued rapid expansion of the online market.
Listen to part one and part two of our “What if?” episodes of “Behind the Numbers.”
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