Housing hits more walls: Latest data show new signs of market weakening as builders pull back.

In the first half of 2025, tariffs rattled retailers, consumer trust wavered in the face of muted DEI efforts, and fast-fashion platforms like Shein and Temu braced for policy whiplash. Meanwhile, private label products surged in popularity, and the retail world took a closer look at generative AI—not just for buzz, but for tangible impact across the shopper journey. Here are the top stories from H1 2025 and why they matter for the rest of the year.

A new four-day format for Amazon’s tentpole event will shake up the playing field.

The news: Walmart-owned Sam’s Club is raising prices on select products in response to cost pressures from the Trump administration’s tariffs, The Wall Street Journal reports. Our take: Sam’s Club is on a roll. The retailer is generating record-high membership levels and plans to accelerate growth by opening about 15 new stores each year while remodeling existing locations. But how Sam’s Club handles tariff-driven price increases could determine whether its momentum continues—or stalls. The retailer faces a delicate balancing act in deciding when to absorb rising costs and when to pass them on. The stakes are high. A misstep could either erode profit margins or drive a decline in membership renewals—both of which are essential to its business model.

The news: US retail sales fell more than expected in May from April, the latest sign that tariff fears and economic volatility are affecting consumer spending. Our take: While May’s retail sales data largely show that consumers are hanging in, the situation remains unpredictable—especially given the fact that tariff-driven price hikes have yet to kick in for a multitude of everyday purchases, including groceries and apparel.

The news: Amazon will bring inventory from Roku to its demand-side platform (DSP), the two announced at Cannes Lions, starting in Q4 2025. Our take: Amazon’s Roku partnership is a well-timed announcement to convince advertisers to stick with their CTV ecosystems even amid tightening budgets.

On today’s podcast episode, we discuss how anti-US sentiment, live tourism, and tariffs are all shaping people’s 2025 summer travel plans. Join Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Vice President of Research Jennifer Pearson and Analyst Rachel Wolff. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify.

On today’s podcast episode, we discuss whether advertisers can still create powerful brand narratives in such a fragmented media universe, the best piece of advice for advertisers trying to negotiate a minefield of tariff-related changes, and how AI will impact advertising and marketing over the next 12 months. Join Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Vice President and Principal Analyst Jasmine Enberg, and Principal Analyst Sarah Marzano. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify.

The news: Auto parts maker Marelli filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, making it one of the first high-profile casualties of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Our take: Not all of Marelli’s problems can be blamed on tariffs. But tariffs and uncertainty have a way of magnifying the cracks in a company’s business—cracks that will become harder to paper over the longer the Trump administration sticks to its hardline tariff policies.

Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.

The news: The UK economy contracted by the most in 18 months in April due to the twin pressures of tariffs and tax increases. Our take: The UK economy’s contraction in April sets the stage for another year of tepid growth. Despite a highly publicized (and yet to be finalized) trade deal with the US, macroeconomic uncertainties are set to weigh heavily on corporate and consumer sentiment, while rising household and business expenses will limit investment and consumer spending.

The reality: Tariff-driven grocery price hikes have been relatively modest so far this year. Food and beverage prices rose 2.9% YoY through mid-May, up from 1.7% a year earlier, per Circana. While tariffs haven’t caused a major inflation spike, supply-side shocks—like drought, avian flu, and extreme weather—have pushed up prices on staples such as coffee, eggs, and chocolate. Our take: Tariffs haven’t led to major price hikes yet, but that’s likely to change soon as duties push up costs on goods like seafood, alcohol, and produce. And even before those increases take effect, shoppers are becoming more cautious, more price-sensitive, and quicker to trade down or skip nonessentials altogether.

The news: WPP Media has lowered its global ad spend forecast for 2025 by 1.7%, reaching 6% compared with the 7.7% projected in December. The downgrade is attributed to ongoing trade wars resulting from President Trump’s current tariff policies, with WPP Media president Kate Scott-Dawkins citing “uncertainty.” Our take: Despite global uncertainty, advertisers who remain flexible with data-informed pivots, prioritize performance marketing, and plan for uncertainty will come out on top.

The news: US pharma imports returned to normal in April after a March stockpiling of drugs and medical products spurred by tariff threats from the Trump administration. The takeaway: Fluctuating tariff threats from the Trump administration means ongoing uncertainty for drugmakers. If the indecision lags for more than a few months, expect some pharma product stockpiling to return.

The insight: Clothing rental services are in the midst of a resurgence. Rent the Runway ended Q1 with a record number of subscribers, while Urban Outfitters-owned Nuuly added 40,000 members in the quarter alone. Our take: It’s taken time for companies to prove that the clothing subscription model can be sustainable. While Nuuly was the first to reach profitability, Rent the Runway’s rebound shows that there is an appetite for rental services that can deliver high-quality products at an affordable price point, as well as capitalize on consumers’ desire for newness.

Temu and Shein ad impressions dropped to 0% as both retailers effectively cut off Google Shopping ad spend in April.

The trend: Consumer packaged goods brands are prioritizing profitability as macroeconomic headwinds reshape consumer behavior. For example, Kimberly-Clark is selling a majority stake in its international tissue business to Suzano and P&G is cutting roughly 15% of its global nonmanufacturing workforce. Our take: While short-term headwinds may be driving CPG companies’ actions, portfolio reassessment is a valuable exercise in any economic climate. Those that take the time to find efficiencies that enable them to emerge stronger and more agile will be better positioned for long-term success than companies simply focused on cutting costs.

The insight: Discounters are experiencing a resurgence as concerns about rising prices and economic stability spur shoppers of all income levels to seek out bargain retailers. Our take: The uncertain environment in many ways benefits Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below, whose value initiatives are enabling them to win spending from cautious consumers. But—as with the broader retail industry—tariffs are a costly challenge for all three, particularly as they try to minimize price hikes and maintain their value advantage.

The news: Shein’s and Temu’s influence in the US is fading quickly as both companies cut ad spending and look to Europe for growth. Our take: Shein and Temu are finding that the billions of dollars they plowed into US advertising have not been enough to secure US customers’ loyalty in the face of higher prices. But rather than find ways to extend the longevity of their US businesses, both companies are fleeing to Europe to take advantage of the (currently) more favorable trade environment.

On today’s podcast episode, we check in on how retailers’ financials are looking this year, different approaches to inventory, and what Q2 is telling us. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Senior Analysts Blake Droesch and Zak Stambor.