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Marcus Johnson (00:00):

Are your brand campaigns as effective as they could be? "Probably not, Marcus, if I'm being honest with myself." I understand. If you're only getting insights when the campaign is finished, then the answer is likely no. To make the best campaign decisions, real-time measurement is crucial, and that's where Lucid Measurement by Cint comes in. Learn about the power of real-time brand lift measurement at cint.com/insights. That's C-I-N-T.com/insights.

(00:34):

Hey gang, it's Monday, June 16th. Jenny, Rachel, and listeners, welcome to the Behind The Numbers, an eMarketer video podcast made possible by Cint. This is the show that helps you stay up to date with the worlds of media, marketing, and technology in about 20 minutes every Monday and Friday. Thank you for joining us. I'm Marcus, and today I am joined by two folks, both calling New York home. We have our VP of all research, Jennifer Pearson.

Jennifer Pearson (00:58):

Thanks for having me.

Marcus Johnson (00:59):

Of course. And we have one of our briefings analysts, Rachel Wolff.

Rachel Wolff (01:03):

Hey Marcus. Great to be here.

Marcus Johnson (01:05):

Hello. Today's fact.

(01:12):

So I quickly, I'd mentioned this one on a previous episode. I'm not recycling material, but I did quickly mention this in passing, but I dug a bit more into this. So a single teaspoon of honey represents the life work of 12 bees. I know. Jenny's face says it all. Oh. Rachel's like, "Yeah, that sounds about right." The life work, Rachel. Have some sympathy.

Rachel Wolff (01:35):

I know. I was just thinking how many bees, like the output of bees have I consumed in my lifetime.

Marcus Johnson (01:41):

Exactly. Yeah.

Rachel Wolff (01:41):

And it's millions of bees.

Marcus Johnson (01:41):

A lot of their lives, yeah.

Rachel Wolff (01:41):

Yeah.

Marcus Johnson (01:44):

.Bees need to visit 2000 flowers to make just one teaspoon of honey

Jennifer Pearson (01:54):

Hard workers.

Marcus Johnson (01:55):

They are. Unlike people. We're the worst. Here's another fact though. According to the World Wildlife Fund, close to 90%, so all wild plants, and 75% of leading global crops depend on animal pollination. One in every three mouthfuls of food, one in three, depends on pollinators such as bees. Crops that depend on pollination are five times more valuable than those that do not. I will say The Bee Movie was a great film. I really want to talk about. We don't have time though. Today's real topic, the most interesting ways summer travel will be different in 2025.

(02:37):

From last year. It's going to be very different from 200 years ago. Okay? Not really. Rachel, six months ago you were writing headlines like Record Travel Demand Expected in 2025 as Consumers Prioritize Experiences. How times have changed. You just put out a piece titled US Consumers Rethink Travel Plans Amidst Uncertainty. Things had been going well.

Rachel Wolff (03:01):

Yes.

Marcus Johnson (03:01):

You note that US passenger volumes were at record highs in 2024, up 17% from two years before that according to the TSA. But in one of your recent articles, you were noticing that just over half of Americans said current economic conditions, tariffs, rising prices, et cetera, have affected their travel plans for the year, according to recent Harris poll survey for The Points Guy. So I thought we could put together a list, a consensus list, of the three most interesting ways summer travel will be different in 2025. So Rachel and Jenny are going to try to convince myself and the listeners that their reasons should be on the consensus list. So, Jenny, you can go first. What is one way that summer travel will be different this year that has to make the list?

Jennifer Pearson (03:46):

Has to make the list I think is the uncertainty, so I don't want to steal Rachel's thunder with the article that she just wrote, but I do think that a lot of the surveys we've been seeing are that US adults are just not certain what they're going to do this summer. And so we have a Bankrate survey for example, where every year they ask, "Are you going to travel?" And that percent fluctuates every summer and even within many surveys we're seeing 60% will travel, 40% will travel, 50, kind of hovers around there. But in the Bankrate survey this year, 23% were uncertain if they were going to travel at all versus 18% last year. And that's the biggest jump year-on-year. I think everyone's just not sure what the future will hold and what their finances will dictate that they can do.

Rachel Wolff (04:41):

Yeah, I mean I think it's the Marriott CEO, he was saying pretty much the same thing, that people are literally waiting as long as they can to make those decisions. So he said at the booking window right now for both leisure and business travel is at 21 days, which if you think about it, if you're planning your summer vacation, that is not a very long time, especially if you have kids and there's a lot of planning that has to go into it.

Marcus Johnson (05:06):

Yeah.

Rachel Wolff (05:07):

So for the time being, people are choosing to push through and choosing to go through with those plans, but the fact that the booking window is so short means that it could change at any moment.

Marcus Johnson (05:19):

Yeah. So this is a good point. Jenny, so uncertainty?

Jennifer Pearson (05:21):

Uncertainty?.

Marcus Johnson (05:24):

Is that what you want to be on the list?

Jennifer Pearson (05:26):

Yep.

Marcus Johnson (05:29):

Okay.

Jennifer Pearson (05:30):

That's one consensus item.

Marcus Johnson (05:31):

I think that's a fair one. Rachel, you'd written that folks are taking a wait and see, which I thought was a good way of putting it.

Rachel Wolff (05:35):

Yes.

Marcus Johnson (05:35):

A wait and see approach to travel. Same survey or same surveyor, 46% of Americans had definite plans to travel this summer down from 53% the year before. And then some other data as well. I think it was from another one of your articles in February, the share of Americans planning to take a vacation in the next six months dipped below 40% for the first time since the pandemic, according to The Conference Board. So I think uncertainty is a fair one. Rachel, what would you like to add?

Rachel Wolff (06:08):

My addition is kind of along the same lines, but it's a little bit more specific, which is to say that cost is going to be king this year. Because of the uncertainty people are really going to look for deals wherever possible, and at the same time, because demand is so uncertain, a lot of these airlines, for example, are leaning into discounts to try and get people to buy a ticket. So I think that's going to manifest itself in a few different ways. One, it means fewer international trips, more domestic trips. It's going to mean more road trips and fewer flights. Maybe shorter stays over week long excursions. All of these things are really going to play into people's travel plans this summer.

(06:56):

Looking at this chart, US Consumers Rethink Travel Plans Amid Economic Uncertainty, you can really see that a lot of people are planning to scale back their trips. You got 20% who have or will travel less than they've planned. Another 19% who plan to shorten their trips. 14% who are changing where they're going. And this is all coming from a Harris Poll survey conducted for The Points Guy. So there are clearly a few different ways that people are looking to save money on travel this summer.

Marcus Johnson (07:28):

Yeah, it seems as though there's a bit of a bifurcation happening. I think you've written about this as well. There's fewer lower middle income folks traveling.

Rachel Wolff (07:39):

Right.

Marcus Johnson (07:40):

You've got households making less than $50,000 now making up about 18% of travelers this summer according to Deloitte. That's down from 31% two years ago. So from 31 down to 18. And Rachel, you'd said that airlines, they know this is happening, and they're actually playing into this. Delta, you were saying, they have most of their capacity is going to be for premium seating.

Rachel Wolff (08:10):

I think that's the goal for them is they're really refitting all of their planes to accommodate what's still pretty solid demand from upper high income consumers. But what I thought was really interesting was there's some data from Bank of America looking at how spending is broken out between demographics. And the one segment that is strong across all income levels is cruises. That is the one area where lower income households are actually going to be spending more this year than last year. So I think again, it's the search for value. There's this perception that cruises are a more affordable way of vacationing. And so it's things like that that are really going to see a surge in demand this year.

Marcus Johnson (08:56):

Yeah, it's so shocking. We'd written their obituary.

Jennifer Pearson (09:00):

From pandemic, exactly.

Rachel Wolff (09:01):

Yeah.

Marcus Johnson (09:01):

They come back with a vengeance.

Jennifer Pearson (09:02):

Yeah. I think also there's so much in the news about airlines and problems at airports and air travel and so I think cruises is a good example where people are turning. We also see a lot of data that road trips, you had mentioned, Rachel. Road trips are really high on the list of types travel that especially in the summer, summer road trip is a pretty common, and I think that's true across the income too, that we're looking at that Bank of America study or Deloitte, Marcus, yeah.

Marcus Johnson (09:35):

Yeah. So cost is king. Jenny, there's one more spot on the list, so it'll have to make it onto the list or maybe bump something off. What are you trying to add?

Jennifer Pearson (09:50):

I do think AI. I can't talk about travel plans without mentioning that travelers and planners are looking at AI more this summer than previous summers and that's going to be true I think each year, subsequent year here. Generative AI usage and trip planning among US travelers, it comes from a survey from Deloitte and it's showing, it looks at last year and it looks at this year, an increasing number of travel planners are using gen AI for their trip planning. So especially younger age groups like Gen Z and Millennials, so like 23% this year.

Marcus Johnson (10:32):

So what you want to go on the list is using AI to plan trips?

Jennifer Pearson (10:37):

Yes.

Marcus Johnson (10:38):

Okay. I'm going to push back here a little bit. So it's gone from 10% to 15% in terms of total. Obviously younger people are doing it more, older people are doing it less, but from 10 to 15%. So it's not a ton of people, but it's not nothing. Also, what do you think they're doing? Is this just discovery? I imagine they're not doing much of their booking using AI yet.

Jennifer Pearson (11:04):

Right. It's really planning, like you said, discovery, it looks like at least from some of the client.

Marcus Johnson (11:09):

For planning, of course.

Jennifer Pearson (11:09):

Yeah, surveys we're seeing, getting dining recommendations, getting excursion or kind of day trip activity recommendations. It seems to be popular for that.

Marcus Johnson (11:19):

Okay.

Rachel Wolff (11:19):

I have used-

Jennifer Pearson (11:20):

You're right, I was say, it isn't a huge percent of the population at this point.

Rachel Wolff (11:25):

Yeah.

Jennifer Pearson (11:26):

But I do see it increasing. Sorry, go ahead, Rachel.

Rachel Wolff (11:28):

Oh no, I was just say I have tried using gen AI to sort of generate itineraries a couple of times. And it's interesting. I mean, I guess on the one hand it sort of depends what you're looking at it for. If you just want a general overview, I feel like it's probably better at those kinds of things. If you try and drill down into specifics like budgets or hotel recommendations and those kinds of things, I feel like it could fall down a little bit. But I think, as a starting point, as we've seen with other gen AI applications especially in the retail sector, I feel like it's a good place for people to start.

Marcus Johnson (12:04):

Yeah. All right. We've got a spot open. I'm going to place it third. I've got uncertainty first, cost is king second, using AI to plan trips third, in terms of ways that travels going to be different this year compared to last year. Rachel, good luck.

Rachel Wolff (12:22):

Okay.

Marcus Johnson (12:22):

One spot left or not one spot left, one attempt left to get on the list.

Rachel Wolff (12:27):

So I would say this is maybe not a huge difference from last year, but I think it will still have a big impact.

Marcus Johnson (12:32):

Okay, so then it's not getting put in. We can move right to the end of the show.

Rachel Wolff (12:35):

I've already counted myself out.

Jennifer Pearson (12:36):

I was hoping you'd knock me out of the running.

Rachel Wolff (12:41):

But I'm very interested in this live tourism trend. So basically the fact that people are using these live events as an excuse to travel. And so last year we saw that a lot with the ERAs tour. That was the big event. This year we had that to a certain extent with Beyonce's Cowboy Carter tour. But also sports tourism is definitely on the up. We had the Champions League final earlier this year in Germany. We've got the Club World Cup coming to the US. So I feel like that will be a pretty big driver of interest, especially as we said, economic uncertainty may be causing people to rethink travel, but these events are a great way to convince people to make that leap.

Marcus Johnson (13:23):

Yeah, yeah. A lot of people traveling for F1 races, which is a lot more popular now. That's a good one. Jenny, I'm so sorry.

Jennifer Pearson (13:33):

It's all right. It is a good one.

Marcus Johnson (13:35):

AI is right off the list.

Jennifer Pearson (13:36):

It's okay.

Marcus Johnson (13:37):

But I think third, I've got two for you which are obviously going to make the list because I'm in charge of it. But the first one is that 2025, it was supposed to be a banner year for travel. And I think that is a bit of a narrative, that and I think you had asked about this, Rachel, one of your many on travel, it seems like you're basically just a travel analyst at this point.

Rachel Wolff (13:59):

I know. We could be a travel briefing.

Marcus Johnson (14:01):

Even though it's not. We could have one. A record 5.2 billion people were expected to fly in 2025. That's up 7% according to the International Air Transport Association, IOTA. First time that it would've reached 5 billion you were saying. And at the start of 2025, Americans had planned to travel more, 56% or at least the same amount, 30% according to the IPX 1031. So do we not think that's a bit of a story, that this was actually supposed to be a big deal of a year for travel, and the fact that now it's not is a bit of a storyline?

Rachel Wolff (14:39):

Yeah, I think it will still be a big year, just not as big as companies were expecting. I mean, the IOTA also just downgraded their profit forecast for the overall airline industry. I think they cut it by like $600 million, but they also pointed out that it's still going to be a record year in terms of profits. So at least, to a certain extent, there are pockets of demand. You've got higher income consumers, international travel is still relatively strong here and there. And from a global perspective, I think demand is pretty high. Whether those travelers are coming to the US is another question.

Marcus Johnson (15:21):

Yes.

Rachel Wolff (15:22):

But I think overall demand is pretty resilient when it comes to travel.

Jennifer Pearson (15:28):

It's funny, you can look at a survey from February and then you can look at a survey from April and it's two different stories. And a lot of it has to do with when the tariffs news landed and some of the travel restrictions and whatnot. So I think survey respondents are fickle maybe is the right way to put it, but I do think we'll see a lot of fluctuation here. So I think that is a good point.

Marcus Johnson (15:53):

Okay.

Jennifer Pearson (15:53):

That may bump out live events?

Marcus Johnson (15:55):

May? Has done already. All right, that's knocked off one of them. Here's my second swing. So you'd alluded this to this, Rachel, so I'm hoping that you side with me and knock off the other thing you tried to put on the list, that I asked you to come up with.

(16:09):

So Karen Jacobs was writing about anti-US sentiment spreading as the administration's tariffs aim to make the country less reliant on foreign products. She was saying global favorability of the US fell 20 points, to what Jenny was saying, in a very short period of time from January to March here, according to Morning Consult. Views from Canada were down 44 points. France, 33, the UK, 31, with more Canadians recommending that you should avoid the US than recommended visiting it according to YouGov. That's a big deal for a lot of reasons, but no one more so than the fact that Canada accounted for the largest number of visitors to the US last year at 20 million. Second is Mexico at 17 million. And then it's a huge drop off to third place, UK, sending just, not sending them, we're coming because we want to, like, "Get out of England. You go over to America," 4 million according to the International Trade Administration. So I think this one's a big deal, the fact that this anti-US sentiment is going to affect travel.

Rachel Wolff (17:21):

One estimate by the World Travel and Tourism Council says the US could lose as much as $12.5 billion in spending from international tourists this year as a result of these anti-US boycotts. So yeah, I think that's going to have a huge impact on the domestic hospitality industry.

Marcus Johnson (17:42):

And this one, that data point was fascinating, because you were again writing it, but you have to do something else at work, okay?

Rachel Wolff (17:48):

I know.

Marcus Johnson (17:48):

It's not all about travel, Rachel. But in that article that referenced that source, you also said, was it the US was the only country?

Rachel Wolff (17:59):

Yes.

Marcus Johnson (18:00):

That's going to drop?

Rachel Wolff (18:02):

Right.

Marcus Johnson (18:03):

Was that correct?

Rachel Wolff (18:04):

Yes. The only country where travel demand to that country will be lower than the year before. Which is-

Marcus Johnson (18:10):

Yes.

Rachel Wolff (18:11):

I mean it's a pretty clear sign.

Marcus Johnson (18:13):

Like close to 200 countries. It was, yes.

Rachel Wolff (18:15):

Right.

Marcus Johnson (18:15):

Yeah, it was shocking. So Rachel agrees with me already.

Rachel Wolff (18:21):

I know I just kicked myself off the list.

Marcus Johnson (18:23):

You have.

Jennifer Pearson (18:24):

Yeah, you're own.

Marcus Johnson (18:25):

Jenny, as if you need any more convincing, but I do have a few more data points which I thought were great. Some of these from Rachel's articles, some of them from Karen's pieces. One was saying that research from The Tourism Economics in late February revised it's outlook, projecting a 5% drop in inbound visits to the US this year versus the earlier forecast, which had a 9% increase, so expected to go up nine and then that's been revised to negative five.

(18:53):

And you're starting to see this play out. There are a ton of data points to suggest this is already happening. The IOTA, which is a few hundred different global airlines it represents, North America saw falls in both domestic and international travel in February. Overseas visits to the US fell 12% in March year-over-year according to National Travel and Tourism Office. Fewer international travelers also hurts US carriers and they said that Q1 profit forecasts were down, they revised them down. And then also in all-important Canada, a ton of data there. Air Canada said US inbound bookings were down 10% year-over-year in April, in the April to September peak travel period. The Canadians choosing other places to go instead. The number of people traveling from Canada to the US fell 15% year-over-year in April, according to US Customs and Border Protection. People going across the border, driving across was down even more.

(19:54):

Say more at this point.

Jennifer Pearson (19:57):

That's some good data.

Marcus Johnson (19:59):

It's all Rachel's data, ironically.

Rachel Wolff (20:02):

That's true.

Marcus Johnson (20:02):

Rachel, you're off the list. I don't know, are you off this? Where does this go? So we've got uncertainty, cost is king, and then 2025 was supposed to be a banner year for travel. Where would we put anti-US sentiment is spreading?

Rachel Wolff (20:14):

I think it could even fit under economic uncertainty, right? Because the thing that is driving this anti-US sentiment is tariffs.

Marcus Johnson (20:22):

Yeah.

Rachel Wolff (20:22):

And that's the same thing that's causing US consumers to be uncertain.

Marcus Johnson (20:26):

All right, so you're basically saying, "Jenny said that at the beginning, Marcus, much more eloquently, uncertainty." All right, fair enough.

(20:34):

I thought this quote from The Wall Street Journal kind of sums up how people feel about travel really well. So I'll just say this to close out the episode. "Dan Ruswick," this is the quote, "Dan Ruswick, his sister, and his mum were planning to take their annual trip to Comic-Con in San Diego at the end of July. They had booked their tickets to the event and a refundable hotel. The family who live in Illinois were looking into flights when the stock market started dropping in mid-April. They canceled the trip, which they estimated would've cost about two and a half grand. The markets rebound and the tariff pause didn't change Mr. Ruswick's mind saying, 'I don't have faith this is going to stay this way.'" Which I think is how a lot of people are feeling. Just because you might feel good today doesn't mean you are certain that you'll feel good tomorrow.

(21:27):

All right, that's our list. Uncertainty, and anti-US sentiment contributing to that, cost being king is second, and then 2025 was supposed to be a banner year for travel and now will not be, but will still be pretty decent, we think. That's all we've got time for this episode. Thank you so much to my guests. Thank you first to Jenny.

Jennifer Pearson (21:45):

Good to be here. Thanks.

Marcus Johnson (21:46):

And then to Rachel.

Rachel Wolff (21:47):

Thanks Marcus. That was a lot of fun.

Marcus Johnson (21:49):

And thanks to the whole editing crew and to everyone for listening into Behind the Limits, an eMarketer video podcast made possible by Cint. Subscribing and following can sometimes feel too good, and leaving a rating and review is said to be life-changing, so feel free. Sara will be here Wednesday taking nope, she won't be taking anything. Instead she'll be talking. Who knows, maybe she's taking things? She'll be talking with a special guest all about what it means to take a DEI or Pride stance in retail and how that has affected companies.

(22:24):

Is that true? Yes, it is true. Next week's episodes.