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EMARKETER

Payments Trends to Watch in H2 2025

Agentic AI Takes Off, Tariffs Threaten Payments Revenues, Stablecoins Enter the Mainstream, and More

Report by Grace Broadbent  |  Jun 12, 2025
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Report
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Agentic AI is the next big payments play
Tariffs threaten credit card revenues
Payment providers are going all in on stablecoins
Payments M&A is taking off
Social commerce is becoming the new frontier of competition for payment gateways
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.
Topics
Financial Services
Payments
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Agentic AI is the next big payments play
Tariffs threaten credit card revenues
Payment providers are going all in on stablecoins
Payments M&A is taking off
Social commerce is becoming the new frontier of competition for payment gateways
Sources
Media Gallery

The payments industry is entering a high-stakes H2 2025. Economic volatility, the rapid rise of agentic AI, and a wave of billion-dollar merger and acquisition (M&A) deals are redrawing competitive lines and forcing providers to reevaluate their core strategies. As stablecoins edge into the mainstream and social commerce explodes, only those willing to pivot quickly will survive the upheaval. Here’s how these trends will shake out in H2 2025.

Key Question: What trends will impact payment providers’ product strategies in H2 2025?

Consumers Remain Tepid About AI-Enhanced Shopping Tools (% of US adults, by select AI-enhanced shopping tools, Sep 2024)
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Key Stat: Almost 70% of US adults are not interested in using AI-powered personal shopping assistants, per a September 2024 EMARKETER and CivicScience survey. Despite this, payment providers and retailers are going all in on the tech.

This report can help you:

  • Develop product strategy (consumer- and merchant-facing payment providers)
  • Develop commerce strategy (merchants)
  • Showcase opportunities to customers and develop go-to-market strategy (consumer- and merchant-facing payment providers and solution providers)

Here’s what’s in the full report

1file

Exportable files for easy reading, analysis and sharing.

6charts

Reliable data in simple displays for presentations and quick decision making.

Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Agentic AI is the next big payments play
  3. Tariffs threaten credit card revenues
  1. Payment providers are going all in on stablecoins
  2. Payments M&A is taking off
  3. Social commerce is becoming the new frontier of competition for payment gateways
  1. Sources
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Consumers Remain Tepid About AI-Enhanced Shopping Tools (% of US adults, by select AI-enhanced shopping tools, Sep 2024)60% of US Adults Have Made Budget Changes, or Plan to, to Prepare for Tariff-Related Price Hikes
Only 19% of Cryptocurrency Owners Will Make a Payment With Cryptocurrency in 2026Payments Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) Ramped Up in H1 2025 With Many Industry-Rocking Deals
US Social Commerce Sales Will Surpass $100 Billion in 2026 (billions in US social commerce sales, % change, and % of total retail ecommerce sales, 2022-2028)Gen Z Social Buyers Are More Than Twice as Likely to Use Apple Pay vs. Buyers Overall (% of US Gen Z vs. total social buyers, March 2024)

authors

Grace Broadbent

Contributors

Vladimir de Leon
Chart Editor
Donte Gibson
Senior Charts Editor
Chris Keating
Tiffani Montez
Emman Velasco
Chart Editor
Julia Woolever
Ali Young
Senior Copy Editor and Manager of Content Operations
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