The news: Amazon reported strong Q2 results for its advertising business, with advertising revenues reaching $15.6 billion—up a significant 23% YoY. Net sales increased 13% YoY to $167.7 billion, well above Q2 guidance that warned of “tariffs and trade policies” and “recessionary fears.” Our take: Moving forward, Amazon will need to innovate what it’s already offering by pioneering a retail media strategy that extends Amazon’s data and ad tech beyond its own storefront, AI-driven tools that simplify creative production and optimization at scale while prioritizing privacy, and more immersive and shoppable ad formats in its streaming offering.

US digital ad spending growth will dip below 10% YoY in 2025, but retail media, social networks, and CTV will still perform above the overall average.

The news: Klarna might push its IPO date up as late as September, per a report from Bloomberg. Our take: Whenever Klarna schedules its IPO, it can bank on the strength of its partnerships—like DoorDash, Walmart, Stripe, and Walmart—to sustain its growth. Fintechs have faced a tough environment for IPOs ever since the high-water mark of 2021. Firms are now required to demonstrate better pathways to profitability before going public. However, despite tariffs and geopolitical disturbances, fintechs have the ability to outperform expectations: Take Circle’s blockbuster IPO back in June. With investors hungry for AI-focused companies, Klarna may be well positioned to ride the wave of its peers’ earlier success in the market.

The finding: Up to one-third of US consumers consider lying on credit applications to be acceptable in some situations or normal behavior, potentially fueled by the rising cost of living, per FICO’s 2025 Consumer Survey. Our take: The rise of first-party fraud means FIs can no longer rely solely on self-reported data. By responsibly leveraging a broader range of data points—such as transactional history, rent/mortgage payments, and utility bill data—within compliance guidelines, banks can build a more comprehensive and accurate picture of a customer's financial health and ability to repay.

Amazon shrugged off tariff concerns in its Q2 earnings report, after reporting growth ahead of expectations. But the retailer’s Q3 forecast was murky, suggesting that while consumer demand remains resilient, uncertainty from tariffs and trade policy—along with extensive investments in AI—could weigh heavily on its bottom line. Amazon’s strong quarter and Q3 sales guidance help dispel some fears about the health of the consumer. But its decision to once again offer an unusually broad profit range for the next quarter shows considerable uncertainty about the impact the Trump administration’s trade policies will have on retailers’ costs.

Etsy and eBay see opportunity to gain share as tariffs burden their competitors and consumers adjust their spending habits. Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from renewed interest in resale as tariffs make buying new more expensive for shoppers. The two platforms also now face less competition from Shein, Temu, and Amazon in online ad auctions—allowing them to be more efficient with marketing spend and reach more potential customers. While neither eBay nor Etsy is fully immune from the effects of tariffs—and their potential drag on the economy and consumer confidence—they are less exposed than most other retailers.

Community banks and credit unions face rising delinquencies, margin pressure, and a disconnect with young consumers. As M&As accelerate, institutions must modernize tech and retain local trust to survive.

Consumer spending will be restrained during the 2025 holiday season as shoppers remain cautious amid ongoing economic uncertainty. That means retail and ecommerce will see the slowest growth since we started tracking the metrics.

As tariffs push prices up, consumers are reevaluating their brand loyalties—and many are walking away for good. What once felt like long-term relationships are now being tested by sticker shock, with even high-income shoppers turning to discount retailers and finding satisfaction in switching.

The luxury sector is facing a “challenging” and “somewhat unprecedented” environment, Prada Group chairman Patrizio Bertelli said—causing even once-hot brands like the company’s namesake label to lose momentum. Luxury companies for the most part view the current downturn as a cyclical blip in an otherwise robust industry. But the prolonged slump is revealing structural challenges—namely, heavier reliance on American and Chinese consumers, as well as a tendency to lean on price hikes rather than innovation to drive sales.

The news: President Donald Trump signed an executive order to close the so-called de minimis trade loophole, which allows foreign packages valued under $800 to enter the US tariff-free. Effective August 29, all shipments under that threshold—regardless of origin—will be subject to duties based on value and country of origin. The White House already ended the exemption for packages from China and Hong Kong on May 2. Our take: Eliminating the de minimis exemption levels the playing field between international ecommerce sellers and domestic retailers—but could also drive up prices for consumers.

Procter & Gamble is hedging its bets as it grapples with higher costs related to tariffs and “stressed” consumers. The CPG company expects organic growth between 0% and 4% this year—a notably wider range than it usually forecasts, underscoring the uncertainty it (along with the rest of the CPG and retail industries) faces. Uncertainty is the byword for this year. While consumer sentiment is recovering, financial pressures, particularly on low-income households, remain—and are likely to intensify as tariffs boost inflation and the “Big Beautiful Bill” curbs buying power. Regardless of which way sentiment is headed, there is no question that tariffs are reshaping consumers’ purchasing decisions.

Snacks maker Mars said it plans to invest an additional $2 billion in US manufacturing through next year to build new facilities and upgrade existing ones in wake of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Tariffs are leading some businesses to boost their US footprint, and we may see more investment announcements. But a key consideration is whether these expansion announcements will represent substantive, job-creating initiatives, or if they are largely symbolic moves designed to support the US government’s current messaging around American manufacturing.

Tariffs could reshape the fashion calendar as brands rethink their merchandising strategies to limit exposure. While Vince’s decision to lengthen its spring season was borne out of necessity, it could herald a larger shift in how fashion brands approach their calendars—particularly as tariffs force tougher decisions about what and how much inventory to bring in. Companies can either go faster—taking a page from the fast-fashion industry and launching new styles quickly and often—or slower, à la Vince, depending upon their customers’ preferences.

emu’s attempts to tariff-proof its business are running into opposition from regulators and sellers alike. The company has been accused of failing to protect EU users from illegal products. Efforts to woo US sellers to its marketplace are also running aground as companies and merchants refuse to sell products on Temu for less than what they retail for on Amazon. For all its troubles, we expect Temu’s US ecommerce sales to rise 13.5% this year, which would be the second-fastest rate of growth among the companies we track—but a far cry from the triple-digit increases it enjoyed over the past few years. With governments increasingly unfavorable to its business tactics—and Amazon increasingly inclined to flex its market power—Temu will need a new playbook to navigate the current era of uncertainty and tariffs.

Ecommerce growth is slowing as the market matures, but gains will come from mobile commerce, Gen Z buyers, and high-performing categories.

The news: We’ve covered banking customer anxieties about inflation, tariff chaos, and broader economic warning signs. Banks have been offering products and advice to help customers plan for the future and strengthen their financial standings. But some financial institutions (FIs) may be failing to address customers’ more pressing financial needs. Our take: For customers showing signs of financial stress, banks must pivot from long-term planning advice to addressing immediate financial survival. This requires delivering highly personalized, practical guidance on urgent concerns like budgeting and debt management. To identify customers in need of help, FIs can analyze their financial health, emergency savings, and how often they nearly or completely empty out their accounts to pay their bills. These steps can prove the FI’s value and build trust in the short term.

Deckers and Puma are proceeding with caution as tariffs complicate US operations and consumer sentiment. Of the two companies, Deckers is better equipped to manage the uncertain environment. It has considerably more pricing power than Puma, giving it more room to offset tariff costs. It also has significantly more runway to grow outside the US: International revenues surged 50% in Q1, while Puma is facing weakness in Asia and Europe in addition to North America.

Q2 earnings revealed turbulence across the travel sector as American Airlines and Southwest reported lower net income and reduced their outlooks. With US airlines and hotels likely to face more headwinds amid uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy, companies need to adjust their strategies.

20% of US adults say they’ve traveled or will travel less than planned due to the economy, according to a May survey by The Points Guy and The Harris Poll.