The news: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup posted strong Q2 2025 earnings—and warnings about Trump’s mercurial economic policies.

• JPMorgan exceeded revenue expectations with $45.68 billion, per CNBC.
• Citi’s $21.67 billion in revenues also outstripped analyst expectations, per CNBC.
• Wells Fargo beat profit expectations but slashed its 2025 net interest income guidance.

Consumer financial health: Across all banks, numbers indicated that consumers were regaining control over their finances.

• JPMorgan’s 30-day delinquency rate hit 2.06%, down from 2.21% in Q1 2025 and 2.08% in Q2 2024.
• Wells Fargo’s followed suit, dropping from 2.82% in Q1 to 2.64%. A year ago, the rate was 2.71%.
• Citi’s branded credit card 30-day delinquency rate fell from 1.03% in Q1 to 0.97% in Q2, though it was up from 0.95% a year ago.

With rates improving quarter over quarter and year over year, analysts have a firm indicator that long-run consumer health is the trend, not a blip. This gives consumers room to spend, which was also mirrored in all banks’ Q2 credit and debit volume.  

• JPMorgan reported credit and debit volumes were up 7% YoY.
• Wells noted its credit card volume was up 9% YoY and 4% QoQ.
• Citi’s US credit card volume was up 3% YoY and 10% QoQ.

These results were driven by more favorable economic conditions for consumers—on top of issuers tightening their underwriting requirements and limiting access to new lines of credit.

Premium card offerings: While average or struggling consumers may not be getting access to credit lines, banks are engaged in a luxury card arms race to attract wealthier consumers with a penchant for discretionary spending—even amid economic uncertainty. 

Citi announced during its earnings presentation that it would launch the Strata Elite card to go after higher-income consumers. It will likely come with rewards—and fees—comparable to JP Morgan Chase’s recently updated Sapphire Reserve and Amex’s soon-to-be refreshed Platinum Card. 

Issuers are using lux dining and travel rewards to increase travel and overall spend volume. 

Tariff uncertainty: JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon commented on the US economy’s resiliency during Q2 but cautioned that advances could be stymied by “tariffs and trade uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices.”

Consumers may be recovering, but they still carry serious apprehensions about the economic climate: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index hovered at 52.2 in May 2025—near a five-year low. 

Our take: While revenues, credit card volumes, and delinquency rates reflect positively about the health of the American consumer, their lived experience remains fraught. 

This suggests it may be time for issuers to loosen their underwriting standards and capture more cardholders. The favorable economic window may fuel demand for signups, but that window may not be open for long. If tariffs and other policies start having a more pronounced effect on inflation and employment, issuers may miss out on an opportunity to acquire reliable spenders and revolvers.

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