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The trade war between the world’s two largest retail markets is taking its toll, especially on China. Coupled with a slowing domestic auto market, the trade war is hurting the country's retail sales. In our latest worldwide retail forecast, we have cut our outlook for China and the US. As a result, China will not surpass the US in total retail sales this year, as expected in our Q4 2018 forecast. That milestone will likely not happen until 2021.

Of the $62.55 billion spent on digital advertising in China this year, at least 80% will go toward mobile formats. This report includes our latest ad spending and time spent with media forecasts for China.

Despite looming tax changes to cross-border ecommerce goods set to go into effect in January, eMarketer expects strong demand for overseas goods in China to continue. In fact, in its latest forecast on China, eMarketer has raised its growth projections for 2019.

On Monday, the proposed $250 billion in tariffs on over 6,000 categories of Chinese goods became reality. China promptly retaliated with a tariff on $60 billion worth of US imports. With the holiday shopping season looming, it's still uncertain how much these tariffs will affect holiday sales, but also consumer perception and marketing campaigns.

So far, China and the US have matched each other tit-for-tat in the growing trade war. Both countries have imposed tariffs on $50 billion worth of goods, with the US threatening an additional $200 billion and China another $60 billion on 5,207 products.

The proposed new tariffs on Chinese imports haven't been enacted yet, though Friday President Donald Trump threatened such a tax at "short notice." Larger retailers might not feel the effects immediately since many manufacturers have likely stocked up in anticipation, but smaller retailers unable to warehouse extra inventory could feel the squeeze sooner.

The latest round of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could come as soon as this week. The retail industry might not feel the full impact of these measures until 2019, but additional fees on goods from China will undoubtedly affect US trade, especially if China follows through with threats of retaliating tariffs.