The news: WPP Media has lowered its global ad spend forecast for 2025 by 1.7%, reaching 6% compared with the 7.7% projected in December. The downgrade is attributed to ongoing trade wars resulting from President Trump’s current tariff policies, with WPP Media president Kate Scott-Dawkins citing “uncertainty.” Our take: Despite global uncertainty, advertisers who remain flexible with data-informed pivots, prioritize performance marketing, and plan for uncertainty will come out on top.

The news: US pharma imports returned to normal in April after a March stockpiling of drugs and medical products spurred by tariff threats from the Trump administration. The takeaway: Fluctuating tariff threats from the Trump administration means ongoing uncertainty for drugmakers. If the indecision lags for more than a few months, expect some pharma product stockpiling to return.

The insight: Clothing rental services are in the midst of a resurgence. Rent the Runway ended Q1 with a record number of subscribers, while Urban Outfitters-owned Nuuly added 40,000 members in the quarter alone. Our take: It’s taken time for companies to prove that the clothing subscription model can be sustainable. While Nuuly was the first to reach profitability, Rent the Runway’s rebound shows that there is an appetite for rental services that can deliver high-quality products at an affordable price point, as well as capitalize on consumers’ desire for newness.

Temu and Shein ad impressions dropped to 0% as both retailers effectively cut off Google Shopping ad spend in April.

The trend: Consumer packaged goods brands are prioritizing profitability as macroeconomic headwinds reshape consumer behavior. For example, Kimberly-Clark is selling a majority stake in its international tissue business to Suzano and P&G is cutting roughly 15% of its global nonmanufacturing workforce. Our take: While short-term headwinds may be driving CPG companies’ actions, portfolio reassessment is a valuable exercise in any economic climate. Those that take the time to find efficiencies that enable them to emerge stronger and more agile will be better positioned for long-term success than companies simply focused on cutting costs.

The insight: Discounters are experiencing a resurgence as concerns about rising prices and economic stability spur shoppers of all income levels to seek out bargain retailers. Our take: The uncertain environment in many ways benefits Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below, whose value initiatives are enabling them to win spending from cautious consumers. But—as with the broader retail industry—tariffs are a costly challenge for all three, particularly as they try to minimize price hikes and maintain their value advantage.

The news: Shein’s and Temu’s influence in the US is fading quickly as both companies cut ad spending and look to Europe for growth. Our take: Shein and Temu are finding that the billions of dollars they plowed into US advertising have not been enough to secure US customers’ loyalty in the face of higher prices. But rather than find ways to extend the longevity of their US businesses, both companies are fleeing to Europe to take advantage of the (currently) more favorable trade environment.

On today’s podcast episode, we check in on how retailers’ financials are looking this year, different approaches to inventory, and what Q2 is telling us. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Senior Analysts Blake Droesch and Zak Stambor.

The news: Spirit Halloween canceled its annual kickoff event due to “international disruptions and supply chain challenges,” it said in a social media post. Our take: While the retailer did not directly cite tariffs, it is the latest warning sign that President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” duties could result in emptier shelves during key shopping seasons.

29.5% of consumers say tariff-fueled price hikes would immediately impact their buying habits, and only 2.3% say their buying habits wouldn’t be impacted at all by price, according to a February 2025 Omnisend survey.

The insight: The gap between Target and its mass merchant competitors Amazon and Walmart is widening. While Amazon and Walmart are consolidating their grip on consumer spending after investments in value and convenience, Target’s largely discretionary assortment and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) controversies are sharply curbing its appeal. Our take: Shoppers are prioritizing necessities over discretionary goods and favoring retailers that offer value and convenience.

Dollar General benefits from “trade-in” behavior among wealthier shoppers: The retailer boosted its outlook as discretionary spending from higher-income consumers offset lower-income caution.

This follows a longer-term strategy of focusing its operations.

Chinese consumers’ travel spending softened during a recent holiday: That’s a clear sign that confidence is strained due to trade tensions with the US.

Travel demand is becoming harder to predict: Consumers are waiting until the last moment to make plans as uncertainty complicates spending decisions.

Shifting policies erode consumer spending bit by bit: Looser bank fee rules, weakening appliance and insurance standards, and rising tariffs all combine to strain household budgets.

72% of trade professionals worldwide are changing or considering changing their sourcing patterns to better manage potential tariffs, according to March 2025 data from Thomson Reuters.

Best Buy will stick to its tariff playbook despite court rulings: The retailer is doing its best to ignore the noise and focus on how best to serve its customers.

US total media ad spending could fall to $394 billion in 2025 under a heavy tariff scenario, wiping out projected gains for the year, per our April 2025 forecast.