The news: Spirit Halloween canceled its annual kickoff event due to “international disruptions and supply chain challenges,” it said in a social media post.

While the retailer did not directly cite tariffs, it is the latest warning sign that President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” duties could result in emptier shelves during key shopping seasons.

The big picture: Even at the current lower rates, tariffs will result in fewer choices and higher prices for shoppers during the back-to-school and holiday periods. Retailers like Walmart are already reducing orders in areas where they believe increases are most likely to dampen demand—which could include products like toys and apparel that are most exposed to tariffs.

• 80% of midsize and 64% of small toy companies canceled orders due to tariffs, according to a survey by the Toy Association, threatening availability during the holiday season.
• Nearly two-thirds of US consumers (61%) are worried that tariffs will affect their Christmas celebrations by limiting the availability of decorations, toys, and electronics, while making affordability more challenging, per a survey conducted by Ipsos for the American Christmas Tree Association.

Our take: Some—but not all—retailers are taking advantage of the current tariff reprieve to bring in holiday inventory, which could prevent the worst of the shortages. But uncertainty and higher costs are causing many companies to either reduce their orders or concentrate on goods they think will sell, which will mean less choice for shoppers in the back-to-school season and beyond.

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